Dynasty Capsule: San Diego Chargers

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers

Rivers was not a widely regarded option at quarterback entering the 2013 season (QB23 in MFL’s 9,333 mock drafts), both in re-draft and dynasty formats, but he sure did prove a lot of doubters wrong. Rivers finished the 2013 season in the top five of quarterbacks with 4,478 yards (third best in his career), 32 touchdowns (second best in his career), only 11 interceptions and five 300+ yard games (second best in his career). Rivers resurgence correlates with the dismissal of Norv Turner, whose offense had grown stale as his players didn’t seem to be reaching their potential under his stewardship. The new Head Coach, Mike McCoy, former offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt and quarterbacks coach Frank Reich all worked wonders in reconstructing Rivers and the entire Chargers offense. Rivers’ pass attempts were the second most in his career (544), and he finished fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.23), so his improvement isn’t solely due to a more conservative offensive design. The Chargers had more rushing attempts (446) in 2013 compared to the prior five seasons under Turner. The entire offense performed well and exceeded expectations. Whisenhunt was hired away as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans and Reich was promoted to offensive coordinator. Reich has never been an offensive coordinator before, so we will have to see how Rivers performs under his guidance. Rivers’ dynasty ADP as of February 2014 is 159, good for QB19. Rivers is 32 years old and is under contract through 2015. At this point, he looks like a nice value as a short-term fix at quarterback for teams waiting on younger talent to develop.

Charlie Whitehurst

Move along. The claim to fame for Whitehurst was somehow fooling the Seattle Seahawks regime under Pete Carroll to trade a high second round pick in 2010 and a 2011 third round pick to the Chargers for a late 2010 second plus Whitehurst. It’s the last time Turner and former Chargers GM AJ Smith fooled anyone in the NFL. I think the Seahawks are happy with their new, less expensive quarterback.

Brad Sorensen

The Chargers took Sorensen in the seventh round as the 221st overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft out of Southern Utah. He has the size and leadership abilities NFL executives want in a quarterback, but his mechanics are not ideal and his upside is probably as a backup. In other words, he’s not worth rostering in dynasty formats.

Running Backs

Ryan Mathews

There weren’t too many fans of Mathews before the 2013 NFL season. Mathews finished 2012 as the RB30 in both PPR and standard scoring formats. Mathews fumbled at the goal line early in the 2012 season and Turner never seemed confident in his young running back again. The hiring of McCoy seemed to reinvigorate the entire offense, including Mathews, and he rushed for 1,249 yards on 4.4 yards per carry in 2013. He also scored seven touchdowns, the most since his rookie season in 2010. Mathews finished 2013 as the RB17 in PPR and RB12 in standard scoring formats. While not the elite fantasy running back many had envisioned, at least Mathews played all 16 games and didn’t get hit with any serious injuries, so that’s good. New GM Tom Telesco and McCoy patched together an offensive line that improved its run blocking and Mathews seemed to run with more determination. He lost one fumble the entire season and that’s a big improvement for him. He wasn’t much of a factor in the passing game, with 26 receptions total, so he carries better value in standard scoring formats. Mathews will be 27 next season, and he will be a free agent in 2015. His dynasty value has been rehabilitated, but 2014 might be his last relevant season. It might be time to trade Mathews now after his best season as a pro – he carries RB2 value with a chance at low-end RB1 value in 2014, if he can stay healthy. Mathews ADP is 59, or RB18, in dynasty, just ahead of Christine Michael, Arian Foster and rookies like Ka’Deem Carey or Lache Seastrunk. I would consider trading Mathews at his current valuation in dynasty formats.

Danny Woodhead

It might surprise some that Woodhead finished 2013 as the RB12 in PPR formats ahead of Gio Bernard, Alfred Morris, Ray Rice and Darren Sproles. Woodhead graded out as the sixth best running back in 2013 by Pro Football Focus. He finished as the RB19 in standard scoring formats, so his value is tied more to PPR leagues. Still, PPR or not, Woodhead was a solid value in 2013. His most recent ADP is 124, or RB 41 in dynasty and that is solid value relative to his production. Given there is a shortage of dependable running backs in fantasy football right now, Woodhead could help contending teams. He is 29 years old, so he’s older for a running back, but only has 547 touches in his career. It might surprise some that Woodhead ran a 4.38 40 yard dash at his Pro Day, had twenty 225 lb bench press reps and a vertical of 38 inches. Woodhead had almost 8,000 yards rushing and 1,400 yards receiving at Chadron State, so his athleticism is better than most might suspect. Woodhead could be an ideal RB2 for a contending team, a value not trivial given running back depth can be hard to find.

Ronnie Brown

Ronnie Brown is a free agent, is 32 years old and not likely more than a backup for NFL teams at this stage of his career. He hasn’t been fantasy relevant since 2010 and is not worth rostering in dynasty.

Kerwynn Williams

Williams was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts as the 230th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. He has good speed, but his size isn’t ideal (5’8’’, 195 lbs). His track record is more of an all-purpose talent, playing on special teams and as a third-down back. He was picked up off waivers by San Diego and is on their practice squad right now. There isn’t a huge motivation to roster him in dynasty, but if Mathews gets injured, it could get interesting. Still, I think the chances he becomes a feature-back for San Diego are slim. He’s best left on waivers unless it’s a dynasty league with deep rosters.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen

Check out this article by Eric Hardter as he makes a strong case for Allen as an underrated commodity in fantasy football. I really liked Allen coming out of Cal and was not concerned about the PCL injury. I tweeted that his PCL would heal in time for the 2013 season and fortunately that was the case. Allen’s quarterback at Cal was not very good and he rarely had a clean ball thrown his way. Despite poor quarterbacking, Allen’s talent jumped off the screen. He looked like a smaller version of Dez Bryant or Justin Blackmon. Allen seemed to attack the ball and had a fiery demeanor I like in my dynasty players. He certainly didn’t lack for an opportunity after Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd both sustained significant injuries. Allen finished as the WR12 PPR and WR9 standard scoring formats from weeks 4 to 17, and his catch percentage was a very solid 70%, with just four drops. Allen’s dynasty ADP is presently 16, or WR9, so his price has increased significantly. I am a fan of Allen and would not hesitate to acquire him at that price.

Eddie Royal

Royal had a bit of a resurgence in 2013 and McCoy was familiar with him, serving as the offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos while he was there. Royal finished 2013 with 631 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Still, even with his surprising production, he managed to finish as the WR39 in PPR and WR 34 in standard scoring formats. His production was inconsistent and he had three receptions or less in 11 of 16 games, including two games with zero catches. Royal was only useful when he scored touchdowns and five of his eight total touchdowns came in the first two games when nobody was likely starting him. Royal is under contract for the 2014 season with the Chargers and is likely to return. He is a free agent in 2015. He is barely worth rostering in only the deepest of rosters, or not at all. His dynasty ADP is currently not listed amongst 112 wide receivers.

Vincent Brown

Brown was a hot name coming into 2013, but didn’t live up to the hype. He flashed promise in the 2011 season, but it seems the ankle injury in 2012 might have impacted his performance last year. Brown played 991 snaps in 2013, yet only managed a paltry 41 receptions for 472 yards and just one touchdown. Brown seemed a step slower and his points-per-snap was third worst in the NFL at 0.06, right next to players like T.J. Graham, Kris Durham and Kenny Britt. The explosiveness we saw in 2011 isn’t there right now. Brown’s dynasty value took a big hit, and his ADP is now 234, or WR104. His owners can only hold and hope he does something in 2014. Chargers wide receivers are far from settled, aside from Allen as the clear-cut WR1, so Brown still has a shot to emerge in 2014. It’s not looking good, though.

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates

Gates seems to be a pariah in dynasty right now and it might be a tad exaggerated. There is no denying he is old and he’s never been the most conditioned of athletes. He will be 34 next year and his career is winding down. He still managed to have a solid season and it was similar to his glory years in terms of receiving yardage. His touchdowns dropped to four, the second-lowest total of his career. His only 100+ yard games came in weeks two and four and he had just two touchdowns after week ten. As bad as that sounds, he still finished 2013 as the TE9 in both PPR and standard scoring formats. In standard scoring formats, the difference between the TE9 and TE20 is 40 points, or about 2.3 points per game. Zach Ertz, Ladarius Green and Kyle Rudolph all finished way behind Gates in 2013 PPG, but all three have far greater value in dynasty formats. Green finished as the TE29 in standard scoring formats and TE36 in PPR, but his value is far higher than Gates’ in dynasty. Green’s ADP is 82, or TE6, compared to Gates’ 229, or TE33. Gates is being drafted behind Colt Lyerla, who might not even get picked in the NFL Draft. I think Gates is an ideal target for contenders as he is incredibly cheap, yet he might give top ten tight end production for a year or more.

Ladarius Green 

Green is one of the darlings of the dynasty off-season this year. The fact Green is being drafted as the TE6 in dynasty start-up mocks right now shows how hot he is and even though I like him, that’s a steep price to pay. Green has a total of 432 yards receiving and three touchdowns in his career after being drafted in the fourth round of the 2012 NFL Draft. He has the height at 6’6’’, but his weight is not ideal at 240 lbs. Still, he opened eyes running a 4.53 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine (the same as Jimmy Graham) and bested only by Vernon Davis (4.38). His average snaps per game significantly increased from 12.5 in the first 11 games last season, to 39 from game 12 through the playoffs. McCoy noticed his young tight end had a lot to offer. Green is definitely a buy in dynasty, but his price is getting out of control. I like him a lot, but there are much less expensive options at the position (Dwayne Allen, ADP 118/TE15 or Greg Olsen, 139/TE19).