The Next Knowshon Moreno

Jacob Feldman

moreno

Several weeks ago I took a look at a few tight ends and a few wide receivers I think have the potential to break out in 2014 and join the upper ranks at their position in fantasy leagues. If you missed either of those articles, you can follow the links to the tight end article and the wide receiver article. In case you couldn’t tell by the title of the article, after a little hiatus it is time to take a look at the running back position and see which players have a chance to join the ranks of an every week fantasy starter in 2014.

If you missed the other articles or just need a refresher on the point, here is a really quick recap of what I’m looking at in these articles. In order to qualify for placement on this list, the player needed to be in the league in 2013, meaning there will be no 2014 rookies on this list. They also need to be someone who has never been a consistent fantasy starter. The final characteristic is they have a chance to reach every week starter status (in this case at least a RB2) in 2014. There will of course be a few 2014 rookies who make the leap next year as well as a few players who require another year or two before they make the leap that are left off this list.

The majority of these players, especially those in later tiers, are destined to fail in 2014. In all likelihood, only a small handful of this group will actually produce in 2014. This is simply a list of players to take a deeper look at and consider adding as high upside fliers if you can add them at a reasonable price. The players within the tiers are in alphabetical order.

Most Likely

Montee Ball (DEN) – I was one of Montee’s biggest supporters heading into the 2013 NFL Draft and season. Unfortunately for me and everyone else who bought into the hype on him, his rookie season was a pretty big disappointment. It wasn’t until late in the season when the Broncos were trying to ease the load on Knowshon Moreno that Ball had much of a chance. The good news is when he was on the field, he was almost as productive as Moreno late in the year. He has the build to carry the load and should Moreno move on, Ball posting a 2014 much like Moreno’s 2013 isn’t out of the question at all. Of course, if Moreno stays, it is going to mean Ball is in a committee once again.

Andre Ellington (ARI) – At the start of the 2013 season, Ellington was at best third on the depth chart of the Cardinals. Due to injuries and poor performance of those around him, he managed to still get 118 carries and 39 receptions for the year. Even better is the fact he had 5.5 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception. In other words, he had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage on only 157 touches. He definitely has talent. The issues are the low touchdown total and the Cardinals staff seeming convinced Ellington is nothing more than a committee back. As long as they have this belief, it will be tough for Ellington to have anything more than RB2 upside.

Kendall Hunter (SF) – Some of us have been waiting for a very long time to see Hunter get the reins in the San Francisco backfield. His ascension has been delayed time and time again by both injury and the age defying Frank Gore. With Gore turning 31 in May and Hunter averaging 4.6 yards per carry in his first season back from major injury, it seems to be the right time for Hunter to start to take over. Some are concerned about LaMichael James and Marcus Lattimore, but James doesn’t seem to be a part of the long term plans and I’m not convinced Lattimore will ever be anything close to what he was in college before the injuries.

Lamar Miller (MIA) – The hopes for Miller prior to the 2013 season were high, too high. After failing to live up to the lofty expectations, many are ready to write Miller off. With the circus of the Dolphins’ locker room and them starting backup level players on the offensive line, I think Miller deserves a bit of a pass. He still averaged over 4.0 yards per carry. There will still be a bit of a mess in the locker room and front office thanks to the Wells Report and the incidents that lead up to it, but I expect Miller to improve on his 2013 season. If he gets the full time role like he deserves and gets 250 carries with 50 receptions, he could be a solid RB2 next year.

Bernard Pierce (BAL) – Like the rest of the Ravens offense, Pierce followed up an excellent 2012 with a very forgettable 2013 season. Given it was a team wide issue, I’m willing to give a little bit of a pass to Pierce. He is still ultra-talented and has ideal size for the position. After the 2013 season, the Ravens were talking about getting Pierce more involved in the offense. Given the current legal issues for Ray Rice, this is even more likely to happen. Assuming Rice is back with the team (his contract has too much money on it to cut him unless he lands in jail), Pierce is going to be a committee back. If he vastly outperforms Rice, he could be the lead back, making him a solid RB2.

Less Likely

Donald Brown (FA) – The eventual landing spot for Brown is going to have an awful lot to do with the likelihood of him becoming a top 25 running back next year. While I don’t know if he will ever live up to his first round selection, I think Brown has finally figured out how to play in the NFL. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry, was a better than average pass blocker and showed nice hands catching passes. He was the most talented running back on the Colts last year and if he’s back with them, I fully expect him to earn the lead role in a committee.

Ben Tate (FA) – I loved Tate coming out of college, but the injuries are starting to pile up for the fifth year running back and might be sapping some of his ability. He is definitely someone to watch in free agency this year, but I think expectations need to be kept in check. Tate ran behind one of the best lines in all of football and he isn’t going to have that elsewhere. He does have good hands which makes him an asset in PPR leagues, but the injuries are a concern for me. Even in the ideal situation, I’m not sure if I would view Tate as anything more than an RB2.

Robert Turbin (SEA) – People sometimes forget how highly Turbin was thought of when he was drafted to be Marshawn Lynch’s backup in 2012. With Lynch’s violent running style and off the field issues, he was targeted as one of the more valuable handcuffs in the league. Unfortunately for Turbin, the Seahawks are a one back team and he hasn’t seen much action in two years. He has flashed from time to time and he was the unquestioned backup over 2013 rookie Christine Michael. Because of Michael, Turbin is an afterthought in a lot of leagues. I’m not convinced Michael is the future of the Seahawks. If Turbin stays the guy, you might get a RB2 for super cheap.

Shane Vereen (NE) – There is an awful lot of hype around Vereen right now, and I’m probably going to get some heat for not putting him in the top group. I don’t think he belongs there, though. Yes, Vereen is a great asset in the passing game and PPR leagues, but he also has the injury history of Darren McFadden and a coaching staff who only shows loyalty to one person, Tom Brady. Between the injuries and the chance he could be replaced at almost any point in time for almost any reason make me very hesitant to think of Vereen at the same level most think of him as right now. I’ll admit he has a chance to be a weekly starter, but I don’t think it is as good of a chance as many others feel it is.

David Wilson (NYG) – When it comes down to talent and potential, Wilson definitely belongs in the top group. However, it is impossible to ignore the current injury he is dealing with. There is a chance he never plays again. There is also a chance he will play, take one wrong hit and be done – that can’t be ignored. The success and presence of Andre Brown also cannot be ignored. Wilson has one of if not the highest upsides of the players on this list, but he is also one of the biggest risks with the current injury. He’s a true lottery ticket, but we don’t know the odds of success right now.

True Longshots

Vick Ballard (IND) – There are a lot of ifs when it comes to Ballard’s future. If Donald Brown goes to a new team, if Ballard is completely healthy after his 2013 injury and if Trent Richardson continues to disappoint, Ballard could be a low end RB2. I think the chances of all three of those coming true are pretty slim, which lands Ballard in the third group. While I do think Richardson’s talent level is very average, Ballard isn’t exactly a superstar, either. His 3.9 yards per carry in 2012 and only 17 receptions isn’t going to get anyone too excited, but he could have value in 2014.

Bryce Brown (PHI) – One of the most overhyped running backs of the 2013 offseason, people expected Chip Kelly’s offense to produce two studs last year. The people who expected that didn’t do their homework or read our articles talking about Kelly’s strong tendency to only use one running back. Combine the tendency with Brown’s own tendencies and you get a poor season. Brown isn’t an elite running back. Yes, he has elite speed and agility, but his vision is terrible and he can’t run between the tackles. With that said, should LeSean McCoy go down for an extended period, I think Chip Kelly would find a way to make Brown productive enough to be a low end fantasy starter.

Benny Cunningham (STL) – Lots of people are all over Zac Stacy right now. The truth of the matter is Cunningham was actually more productive on a per touch basis than Stacy was. While he isn’t quite as big as Stacy, he is still well within the preferred size of an NFL running back. While Stacy was the guy in 2013, there isn’t an guarantee Cunningham won’t close the gap or even take over at some point in 2014, possibly with the help of an injury. If he does take over, he should produce on par or even better than Stacy did in 2013.

Mike James (TB) – The backfield of the Buccaneers was a mess in 2013 with all of the injuries. The only good thing to come out of the mess was the chance to see multiple running backs in NFL action. Out of the running backs we saw in 2013 for the Bucs, James was the most productive. Let me be clear, I’m not saying he is better than Doug Martin, because that isn’t the case. I’m just saying James was very productive during his time as the starter. Should something happen to Martin again, James could step in and be very successful. He has great size and flashed NFL level talent over a very short period of time. If you’re a Martin owner who believes in handcuffs, he is someone you want.

Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL) – Rodgers isn’t anything more than a change of pace or a third down running back in the NFL. He has shown this over and over. However, with an aging Steven Jackson and needs elsewhere on the team, the Falcons might decide to overlook the running back position this offseason. If they do, that would mean another year of Rodgers as the number two running back. In that role, and should something happen to Jackson, Rodgers could turn into the 2014 version of Danny Woodhead. It is extremely unlike to happen because Rodgers just isn’t as good, but that is why he is a longshot.

That’s it for my list of 15 running backs who might be looking at a breakout in 2014. Who are your favorite breakout candidates for next season?

jacob feldman