2QB Leagues: Where Quarterbacks Rule

James Simpson

manning
Editor’s Note: This article is submitted by a new Member Corner writer, James Simpson.  We look forward to seeing much more of James’ work in the future.

Whether you play in a 2QB league, are due to join one next season or have yet to take the plunge, Ryan McDowell’s piece on ADP in 2QB leagues was an eye-opener. In what kind of crazy fantasy world would three quarterbacks be drafted with the first three picks? Well, this is a world where Case Keenum and Jason Campbell were two of the most valuable pickups in 2013. A world where owners of the first overall rookie draft pick are considering Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles and not just the supremely talented Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans or any of the top running backs available.

Historically, I have adopted the same formula for fantasy success as I am sure many of you have – draft running backs early and often and invest in tight ends and wide receivers. Quarterback has never been a priority for me. But the 2QB world turns that idea upside down by increasing the value of quarterbacks and therefore devaluing all other positions. The way you build your team and approach the quarterback situation will drastically change. I will take a look at why that one extra starting spot makes such a difference and how you can adapt to this change in order to succeed in your 2QB league.

The Lineup: Why are Quarterbacks so Important?

In a 12-team league with 24 starting spots to fill it is essential to have players that are starters. Only 32 players put up points at the quarterback position each week (not accounting for injuries, blowouts and bye weeks) and that is what separates it from a position such as running back where you may see two players from the same team scoring points consistently or wide receiver where you can even play a third-stringer and still get strong fantasy points from them. At quarterback, you either get starter points or you get nothing.

Standard Lineup

In standard lineups, most owners are happy to start a QB2 every week, because they know the difference between their quarterback’s score and that of a QB1 will be insignificant if they can win at the other positions. The table below shows the average weekly score by position of a standard lineup of top 12 players (Team A) versus a lineup of players ranked from 13-24 (Team B).

Note: The data was taken from standard scoring NFL.com leagues and shows total score over the year divided by 16. 

table 1

  • In a standard lineup, the position with the biggest difference is at running back (highlighted)
  • Quarterbacks are behind both running backs and wide receivers
  • Having two top running backs is enough to make up for losing at other positions (e.g. quarterback and tight end)
  • The difference between having a top-12 kicker or defense versus having one in the next tier is minimal. This reinforces the idea that streaming and investing little in these two positions can be a successful strategy
  • The flex spot is obviously important as it means you must draft and start more running backs and receivers
  • After looking at the numbers, we can see why most owners focus their efforts on winning the battle at running back and also spend high picks on wide receivers or the top tier of tight ends

2QB Lineup

Below, I have used the same data but added the second quarterback spot. When we add this extra starting spot and apply it to fantasy scoring, what difference does it make?

table3

  • Whereas in a standard lineup the biggest difference between having two top-12 players and two players ranked in the next 12 is at running back, in a 2QB league it is now at the quarterback position

Scoring a large amount of points at quarterback will provide you with the biggest point-scoring edge in your 2QB league, which means you must adapt your draft strategy to value it that way. Knowing that top quarterbacks have longer NFL (and fantasy) careers means it is wise to invest heavily in players that will be QB1s and potential difference-makers in years to come.

Quarterbacks: Winning Combinations

Your approach to the quarterback position will set the tone for your team and how you will draft in the future. By valuing them highly you can build the rest of your team around them, whereas adopting a conventional approach of winning at the other positions and waiting on quarterbacks will mean you must find some strong starters in the later rounds. There are different ways to approach the quarterback position in your draft and lineup:

  1. ‘QB Heavy’ – You focus on quarterbacks in the early rounds and look at getting two guys that will consistently finish in the top 12 and have the potential to do even better.
  2. ‘1 stud, 1 other’ – Having someone like Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck or Cam Newton will allow you to be more experimental with your second quarterback. Pairing Peyton Manning with almost anyone would have kept you scoring an above average amount of points last year. A veteran who is guaranteed to start when healthy but not expected to produce top numbers (e.g. Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning or Joe Flacco) is a good addition to a ‘stud’.
  3. ‘Revolving Doors’ – This strategy involves waiting on your quarterbacks, finding lower tier starters in the late rounds and investing in rookies or high upside backups while hoping to strike gold.

I took a look at some combinations of groups of quarterbacks from last year and how big the difference in points was between them. I split them into a five categories and looked at what each combination of those categories scored, again using the average weekly score in 2013.

In the table:table 2

A = High QB1 (1-6)
B = Low QB1 (7-12)
C = High QB2 (13-18)
D = Low QB2 (19-24)
E = ‘The Rest’ (25-30)

  • The combinations that scored over 30 points per week all involved at least one QB1
  • Two high QB2s produced a similar weekly score to the ‘A + E’ combination
  • Having a second quarterback that is a QB2 or worse is an issue if they are not paired with a QB1
  • Owners relying on two low QB2s or worse would have struggled to reach 20 points per week
  • Category E included names such as Josh McCown, EJ Manuel and Sam Bradford who didn’t start for the entire year. Relying on a player in this group as a starter would have been extremely problematic

I personally think dominating the quarterback market is the best way to go. I do not feel comfortable drafting a quarterback late and worrying about whether they will keep their job for the whole year. When I pick up a quarterback at the top of the draft who I know is great football player, I can be extremely confident that they will produce good fantasy numbers for many years (barring injury).

Using ADP Data to Determine Draft Strategy

Using Ryan’s data, I added an extra column to show you who is being drafted in each round of a 12 team draft. This will give you an idea of some good combinations of quarterbacks to target for next year and where they currently stand.

Note: The average draft position of a lot of these players will change over the summer but we can use it as a good starting point.

table4

  • According to Ryan’s data, the top 24 quarterbacks are going in the first eight rounds of drafts and the top 12 quarterbacks are going in the first three rounds
  • Round two is a great place to target players who can certainly be top-six players next year (Peyton Manning) and in years to come (Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson)
  • There are not even 32 quarterbacks drafted in the first 14 rounds, meaning there are players who have little value now but may step into starting roles (the draft will have a huge impact on this)
  • Eli Manning is a potential target for those employing a late-round approach to quarterbacks. After his rookie year, he spent eight consecutive seasons in the top 14 fantasy quarterbacks until last year (QB21). I expect him to bounce back next year
  • If you believe that Mike Glennon and Sam Bradford will be starters next year, now is the time to buy them. I expect both of their teams to add weapons for them in the draft and if that is the case their ADPs will rise heading into next season

Conclusion

My aim is not to convince you to throw caution to the wind and go ‘all in’ on quarterbacks. You should continue to draft based on talent and value, but in 2QB leagues it is essential to be aware of how important quarterbacks are. If you have three solid starters you will be ahead of the curve in your league and will be set up for the bye-week stretch and in case of injury. Where you would usually fill spots at the end of your roster with experimental running backs and wide receivers, I would recommend using some of those spots to do the same with quarterbacks. If they step into a starting role their value will shoot up and you will be the first person the desperate quarterback-needy owners come to (and there will certainly be a few of them).

I hope this has helped, and now it is over to you guys – How many of you play in 2QB leagues? What is your approach to the quarterback position?

Talk football with James on Twitter @EaglesMusings

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