Developing Assets: Devy ADP, Part Two

Ryan McDowell

keith_marshall

In last week’s Developing Assets, I introduced the top twelve devy picks, according to ADP data gathered from a series of devy only mock drafts organized by friend of DLF, Scott Fish. After taking a look at the top twelve, or what could be viewed as the potential first round of a devy draft, we will go a bit deeper today with the second and third rounds, or the next twenty-four players.

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  • There were a few questions about some of the players who didn’t make the top twelve last week and we see those players here in the second group of twelve. This group features a trio of players who were highly valued devy assets a season ago, but have lost some value after having the 2013 college season cut short due to injury. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running backs Duke Johnson and Keith Marshall all went down with season ending injuries. While I’m not too concerned about Diggs’ future, the running backs do worry me. Johnson took a pounding each week and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had suffered multiple concussions last season. Marshall was off to a slow start playing behind devy sweetheart Todd Gurley even before the injury. It would be a surprise if Marshall declares after the 2014 season, which hurts his devy value even more.
  • As we get deeper in a draft, owners are more willing to take chances. Because of this, there are a few relatively unproven players found in the second round. The first is incoming freshman and the second rated freshman running back Joe Mixon, who will be attending Oklahoma. He has a chance at some early playing time and if the scouts are right about him, could really improve his value early on. Another player with not much of a track record is Alabama tight end OJ Howard. Howard got plenty of playing time as a true freshman for the Crimson Tide, but was not a featured part of the offense and didn’t really need to be considering the wide receivers and running backs the Tide also have on offense. Expect his role to grow next season, but as the third or fourth option in the Alabama offense, he could continue to be a value for devy owners. Finally, there is Karlos Williams, who fell to the end of the second round. Williams is generating a lot of buzz among devy owners as he is the next in line for the position of starting running back at Florida State. Upperclassmen Devonta Freeman and James Wilder both bolted for the NFL, leaving Williams, along with Ryan Green, as the top Seminole runners. Williams finished the season in strong fashion after being switched from defensive back earlier in the season. Williams is likely to continue to rise draft boards throughout the off-season.
  • The first senior selected in our devy draft series falls all the way to 24th overall and that is Louisville wide receiver Devante Parker. Parker has been a perfect partner to quarterback Teddy Bridgewater over the past three seasons and unlike his partner in crime, opted to return to school for his final season. With new offensive minded head coach Bobby Petrino in town, Parker could be in for a career year, even with Bridgewater gone.
  • Perhaps my two favorite players in this round are both wrapping up their freshmen campaign. Tennessee wide receiver Marquez North and Pittburgh’s Tyler Boyd both stepped on campus and quickly became their team’s top option in the passing game. For North, the timing couldn’t have been better considering the Volunteers had just lost a huge chunk of their receiving corps with Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter on their way out of town just as North was arriving. For the Pitt Panthers, they had been led for years by Devin Street, a senior in 2013, but Boyd outplayed him and led the team in receiving. If both players can avoid the sophomore slump that hit many of the top receivers in 2013, their value should continue to grow to the same range as Diggs and Amari Cooper.
  • I mentioned it last week with the uber-talented Jameis Wintson, but I’ll repeat myself. I don’t like taking quarterbacks early in devy drafts. Here we see Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota going off the board as the fourteenth overall player, ahead of many talented running back and receivers. Considering most leagues only start one quarterback, I’d rather spend my picks on players at other positions.

Here’s our third round of devy players:

roundthree

As I mentioned, the deeper in the draft you go, the more speculation that is required, as in all types of drafts. It’s true here with more incoming and outgoing freshmen, along with some upperclassmen that have their question marks.

  • Devin Funchess of Michigan is the second tight end off the board and barely misses the second round as he and Parker are actually tied with an ADP of 24.75. There have been rumors that Funchess could be moved to wide receiver as the Wolverines have a need there and last year’s freshman tight end Jake Butt proved a reliable option at the position.
  • Again, my favorite player of this group is a player just wrapping up his freshman season. Miami’s Stacy Coley did have some struggles with drops, but also flashed extraordinary talent. I’m looking forward to seeing him with a new quarterback, as the inconsistent Stephen Morris has moved on to the NFL.
  • Maybe I need to watch him some more, but I just don’t see a future NFL talent with Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah. He chose to return to school for his senior season and with next year’s deep running back class, he could easily be lost in the shuffle. His ADP is somewhat inflated after going twelfth overall in one of the mocks.
  • This round includes five young backs, most of whom will be part of a committee approach during the 2014 season. Kenyan Drake of Alabama and Florida’s Kelvin Taylor are likely to be the lesser end of their committees with the Crimson Tide also boasting TJ Yeldon and Derrick Henry, while Florida’s Matt Jones should return from his injury and see plenty of playing time. The other young backs; Byron Marshall, Derrick Green and Johnathan Gray should lead their team in carries, though Gray is another player returning from a serious injury last season. If I had to choose one of these players, I’d opt for Green, who should claim a huge percentage of the running back touches for the Wolverines.
  •  One player who I can’t wait to watch on Saturdays is incoming freshman Devante Noil, also known as Speedy. His name certainly fits as Noil racked up unbelievable numbers throughout high school, where he saw a ton of playing time at quarterback. While I am anxious to see Noil at Texas A&M, I’m unsure if he has the size to make it in the NFL. Of course, there’s plenty of time for that to change. Either way, he should be an entertaining player for the next three years, at least.

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