Dynasty Capsule: New England Patriots
As part of our Premium Content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season. Today, we bring the New England capsule to all followers of DLF as a special sneak preview.
We continue the team-by-team breakdowns with the New England Patriots.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady
After ranking 11th among quarterbacks and 16th overall in fantasy scoring in 2013, Brady performed remarkably well as a low-QB1 given the inexperienced group of receivers and new schemes around him. Remember, the offense was centered around two-TE sets with Rob Gronkowski healthy and Aaron Hernandez on the field. With Gronk missing the beginning and end of the 2013 season, plus the loss of Shane Vereen for half the season with a wrist injury, Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels and Brady himself had to essentially re-design their whole offensive philosophy. As such, no quarterback did more with less than Brady as he led the Patriots to the AFC Championship Game once again.
However, the fantasy relevance of Brady has started coming into question. With the influx of talented quarterbacks in the league, the Patriots’ quarterback has slipped to 12th among quarterbacks in January mock drafts with an ADP of 111.5 (the ninth round in 12-team leagues). The dearth of talented skill players around him aside, the concerns about slowing down are legitimate given his decline in performance from 2012 to 2013. Second among fantasy scorers in 2012, Brady’s statistics declined across the board in 2013: 4,827 yards passing down to 4,343, a 34:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio dipped to 25:11 and even four rushing touchdowns fizzled to zero. Incidentally, non-fantasy statistics showed the same downward trend with a 2.5% lower completion percentage and .66 fewer yards per attempt. All of this equated to a drop of approximately five points a game for fantasy teams.
Turning 37 in August, Brady has started 191 regular season games and another 26 postseason games in his 14-year career. That’s a lot of tread on his tires heading into 2014. There is also uncertainty surrounding his receiving corps (particularly the health of Gronkowski and the potential departure of Julian Edelman and/or Danny Amendola), though he will have a year under his belt with a trio of young wideouts who all showed flashes in 2013 in Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce. With a deep first-year player draft for wide receivers and the Patriots reportedly interested in selecting one of the top two tight ends (Jace Amaro out of Texas Tech and Eric Ebron from North Carolina), the team is likely gearing up for a Super Bowl trophy before their star quarterback retires. Where he’s being drafted, that could mean good value if you’re willing to invest a mid-round dynasty draft pick in Brady.
Ryan Mallett
As he enters the final year of his rookie contract, Mallett once again finds himself in the heart of trade rumors to teams such as Cleveland and Minnesota. A trade would be surprising unless the team finds a veteran quarterback they would be comfortable with as there are no other quarterbacks currently under contract.
Whether he gets traded, where he’ll likely be a starter give what the team would have to give up to acquire him, or re-signs with the Patriots to continue to be groomed as Brady’s successor, there is fantasy value in rostering him. He’s being drafted in the 18th round as the 27th quarterback, ahead of current starters including Alex Smith and Carson Palmer, so don’t expect his lack of snaps is deterring your leaguemates from stashing him.
Running Backs
Shane Vereen
Vereen exploded out of the gates with 101 yards rushing, seven receptions and 58 yards receiving in the Patriots’ season opener in Buffalo in 2013. Unfortunately, he also sustained a wrist injury that caused him to miss the next eight games. When he returned, he was targeted at least six times in each of his first five games and delivered at least 15 fantasy points in his first four games (PPR scoring).
With explosive big-play ability, Vereen’s versatility and elusiveness help him to avoid the big hits many other running backs sustain regularly. Lining up all over the field, he creates matchup problems with the burst to quickly get by linebackers and the size advantage over a cornerback or safety. At the 2011 NFL Combine, he actually led all running backs as he benched 225 pounds 31 times.
Vereen’s 2013 statistics prorated over a full season would have resulted in 94 receptions and 854 receiving yards to supplement his rushing numbers and place him sixth among all running backs. Currently being drafted as the eleventh running back and 31st player overall (a mid-third round pick), Vereen potentially represents a value selection in drafts. With a relatively quiet end to his 2013 season and the IR stint, he may also be a solid buy-low target. Personally, I’m all in despite the stigma surrounding Patriot running backs.
Stevan Ridley
One of the hardest players for me to value in the NFL, Ridley is extremely polarizing. In January mock drafts, he was picked anywhere between 66th (mid-sixth round) and 92nd (mid-late eighth round) averaging out at 83rd (the end of the seventh round) as the 27th running back taken. He has a lot of talent and has shown flashes of brilliance. Unfortunately, this has also been supplemented (and overshadowed) by stints in the doghouse for fumbling, which opened the door for LeGarrette Blount to take the role of lead plodding back to complement Vereen.
Only 25 and motivated as he enters his contract year, Ridley is among the better options to outperform his draft spot. In a recent startup draft, I was able to take him in the 15th round. If Blount does not return, Ridley will be the clear-cut lead back and represent a fantastic draft day value. Don’t forget that just two seasons ago he rushed for over 1,200 yards with a dozen touchdowns.
LeGarrette Blount (UFA)
After not doing much on his first 113 carries of 2013, Blount went off with four touchdowns and 265 yards in the final two weeks of the regular season followed by his famous 166 yard/four touchdown game against the Colts in the playoffs. While this should guarantee him a roster spot somewhere, the Patriots won’t break the bank to bring him back. Ridley and Vereen are both entering the final year of their rookie contracts, so New England has some decisions to make on a handful of running backs. Blount is most likely to sign on with a team in a RBBC or backup role and does not hold significant dynasty value. His ADP is as a flier in the 15th round.
Brandon Bolden
Bolden rushed for 271 yards and three touchdowns (almost mirroring his 274 yards and two touchdowns in 2012) on plays where New England’s lead back was taking a rest. He proved a decent fill-in while Vereen was out as he chipped in 21 receptions, mostly on third-down screens. Bolden may be worth stashing on deep rosters, but a lot has to go his way to even be a bye-week filler.
Jonas Gray
The former Dolphin was signed to a reserve/future contract by the Patriots. Given New England’s fondness for running backs in this mold, Gray could battle for a roster spot if Blount leaves. As it currently stands, he’s a power back who offers little fantasy value buried deep on this roster.
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman (UFA)
Few seem to realize how valuable Edelman was fantasy-wise in 2013. After ranking 14th among wide receivers and 41st overall, he caught 105 passes for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns. From weeks 12 through 16, he averaged just under 25 points per game as he became the clear #1 option in the Patriots’ receiving game.
Now a free agent, it would be surprising for the Patriots to let him go. However, he’ll have no shortage of suitors and will get a significant pay increase from the $765,000 salary he earned in 2013. Regardless of his destination, he has carved a role in an offense after spending the majority of his first four years in the league as a returner (and even in coverage in the Patriots’ secondary). He’ll turn 28 in May, so the veteran still has plenty of career ahead. Being drafted around the 101st pick in mock draft, Edelman is flying under the radar despite his significant value in PPR leagues. He could represent a great draft-day value or trade target.
Danny Amendola
Sharing nearly the exact same ADP as Edelman in January mock drafts, Amendola underachieved in 2013 considering the expectation that if healthy he would effectively replace Wes Welker. The problem with this, of course, is that Edelman played Welker’s position the majority of the time while Amendola was on the outside.
His grand total of 54 receptions for 633 yards and two touchdowns was certainly disappointing for those who took Amendola around the fifth round last year, but a flier in the ninth round is more palatable if he repeats his down year in 2014. Of course, there’s still a chance that Amendola is on another team despite entering just the second year of his five-year deal. Should the Patriots determine Edelman is a priority over Amendola and the latter doesn’t fit in their plans on offense, they could cut him loose. The risk seems worth taking in the ninth round, even if Amendola is in a different uniform in 2014.
Aaron Dobson
AfterhHaving drafted Dobson in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft, the Patriots are going to give him opportunities to be in the starting lineup after a mixed start to his career. Multiple foot injuries sidelined him for four regular season games, around which he pulled in 37 receptions for 519 yards and four touchdowns. He is also a solid red-zone target at 6’3″ with excellent hands, especially necessary with the status of Rob Gronkowski’s in question for 2014.
For those concerned about his relative lack of production in 2013, it’s important to remember that only recently have rookie wideouts been expected to start producing immediately. Being drafted with the last pick of the seventh round, he is a solid gamble as a WR3 as one of Brady’s top receiving targets at only 22 years old.
Josh Boyce
After being drafted in the fourth round, Boyce was overshadowed and surpassed by the undrafted Kenbrell Thompkins. He only mustered nine receptions in nine games, ending the season on I.R. with an ankle injury. A speedy receiver who showed flashes very sporadically (seven of his nine receptions came in two games), Boyce dropped four passes on 19 targets. As we are all well aware, that will easily put a receiver in Belichick’s doghouse even if he is healthy.
Despite the lack of star power, there are many receivers on the Patriots’ depth chart and Boyce could end up being an odd man out if he can’t hold onto the ball or win the kick returner job. He’s being taken 205th in mock drafts, the equivalent of an early 18th round pick. Most draft picks at that point are fliers, but Boyce is not a player I’m betting on as a sleeper in 2014.
Kenbrell Thompkins
With all the hype surrounding undrafted free agent Kenbrell Thompkins, he only caught 32 passes for 466 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games for the Patriots last season. He played most of the time on the outside, where he doesn’t really have the speed to beat cornerbacks (unlike his cousin Antonio Brown) and at 6’1″ doesn’t have a distinct height advantage, either. Physical and aggressive, he may be best suited to line up in the slot if New England chooses to utilize him that way.
Thompkins is more of a depth wide receiver with the ability to play serviceably all over the field than a clear-cut starter on the outside or in the slot, and as such would be relegated to the bench more if the Patriots employ fewer three and four wide receiver sets. With veteran wide receivers and rookie tight ends being linked to the Patriots, that seems to be a more realistic scenario than expecting Thompkins to seize a starting job. He’s being drafted in the 13th round this off-season, but I’d rather take a chance on Stedman Bailey or Marquise Goodwin at that point.
TJ Moe
Though he went on I.R. before his sleeper status reached its potential, Moe drew comparisons to Welker. However, he’s a bigger player at 6’0″, 200 pounds in the slot. A last-place finish among wide receivers in the 40 at the 2013 combine hurt his draft stock, but his first-place finish in the 3-cone drill is more indicative of his skill set. If the Patriots let Edelman go, expect to hear Moe’s name again.
Mark Harrison
Many were surprised when Harrison wasn’t drafted in 2013 (presumably due to his foot injury), but few were surprised Bill Belichick was the one to scoop up the former Rutgers wideout. At 6’3″ and 231 pounds, Harrison ran a 4.46 at the NFL combine. If he has recovered after spending a year on the reserve/PUP list, this is a name to watch in training camp.
Austin Collie (UFA)
With Dobson and Thompkins hurting, Collie received time in four-receiver sets near the end of the season and in the playoffs. Concussions derailed his career, but Collie’s a smart player and can make a third down catch when needed. Though he’s an unrestricted free agent, the Patriots are likely to try and re-sign him. His limited role doesn’t merit fantasy consideration.
Matthew Slater
Slater is a smart and talented football player, having made three straight Pro Bowls and is a captain for the Patriots. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, all his accolades are on special teams and he has only caught one pass in his NFL career. Unless his role changes, which is decreasing in likeliness, he’s not worth a spot on your roster.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski
Here we go again.
Coming off surgery to reconstruct his ACL and MCL, Gronk is expected to be ready for the start of the 2014 season. Of course, we’ve heard this before as he nears double digits in surgeries at age 24. Injuries to his ankle, hip, forearm, back and hamstring preceded the knee surgery (following a play on which he also received a concussion). The concerning trend is becoming hard to ignore.
Though Jimmy Graham has surpassed him as the TE1 in dynasty rankings, Gronk is actually being drafted at exactly the same spot in January 2014 as he was in January 2013: 17th overall in the middle of the second round. With averages of 5.5 receptions, 84.6 yards and .57 touchdowns per game in 2013 (equating to approximately 17 points per game), the targets and production are there when he’s on the field.
The question comes down to how this impacts Gronk’s 2014 season. While recovery time for surgery on comparable injuries has seemingly sped up in recent years, the fact remains this is a serious injury to bounce back from. Compounded with his previous back and forearm issues, I’d be very hesitant to spend an early pick on him when it would mean passing on players with similar ADPs such as Doug Martin and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Michael Hoomanawanui (UFA)
When Gronkowski missed time at the end of the season due to injury, it was Hoomanawanui who benefited the most in terms of snaps. However, the Patriots changed their scheme so this translated into more blocking and fewer targets to tight ends as he ended up catching only 12 passes all year. Although he’s expected to return and retain a roster spot, “Hoo-man” isn’t worth fantasy consideration.
Matthew Mulligan (UFA)
Primarily a blocker, Mulligan caught his first career touchdown pass in week four and hauled in another eight-yard reception in 2013 to bring his total to two. He can be safely ignored in all formats even if he is brought back to the Patriots.
Make sure you cheek out the Premium Content section for the team capsules for each and ever team in the league.
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