AARP Running Backs

Ty Miller

chris_johnson

Editor’s Note: Ty Miller is one of the newest writers here at DLF. If you follow fantasy football on Twitter, you certainly know him already as Ty_In STL. We welcome Ty to the writing team and look forward to seeing his work in the future.

In dynasty football, few things draw more attention to a player than his age.  Once a running back hits 27 years old, there always seems to be a popular stigma that he is about to go off the cliff, but is that true?  While it is inevitable that time and wear on the body will cause a reduction in physical ability, some players manage to stay very relevant well into their late 20’s and, occasionally, their 30’s.  Every running back will grow old at some point, but perhaps the masses should embrace the AARP running backs and ride them out into the sunset.  Of course, they could just break a hip and your dream of hoisting a fantasy trophy will be shattered.

Let’s take a look at the top 20 running backs of 2013 for some reference on how the veteran running backs stacked up against the younger guys.  Twelve of the top 20 listed players are 27 years or older and are averaging 1,526 career touches.  Of those 12, four have over 2,000 career carries/receptions – Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore.  Those four players have been mainstays on fantasy teams for a few years, but they may be reaching the end of the line as three of them needed surgery at the completion of the season.  Also, Johnson, Peterson and Gore all saw dips in their yards per carry as compared to the 2012 season.  On the opposite end of the spectrum, there were four rookies who ascended the depth charts and made an early impact – Zac Stacy,  Le’Veon Bell,  Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard.  Each of those rookies are in advantageous situations, and should continue to perform well for years to come.  I’ve listed age, 2013 rank, and career touches (postseason included) in the chart below.

**RB Ranking via Flea Flicker**

Player

Age

2013 RB Rank

Career Carries/Receptions

Jamaal Charles

27

1

1,278

Lesean McCoy

25

2

1,468

Matt Forte

28

3

1,947

Knowshon Moreno

26

4

1,056*

Marshawn Lynch

27

5

2,069*

DeMarco Murray

25

6

655

Adrian Peterson

28

7

2,309

Eddie Lacy

23

8

342

Chris Johnson

28

9

2,026

Reggie Bush

29

10

1,644

Fred Jackson

32

11

1,394

Danny Woodhead

28

12

623

Giovani Bernard

22

13

245

Joique Bell

27

14

353

Ryan Mathews

26

15

1,006

Le’Veon Bell

21

16

289

Pierre Thomas

29

17

1,123

Frank Gore

30

18

2,676

Zac Stacy

22

19

276

Darren Sproles

30

20

869

 *Super Bowl XLVIII touches not included

In most dynasty leagues, some of the proven veterans will fall in startup drafts, or can be had for a discounted price via trade.  Commonly, owners will target rookies or second year players to build their team around, and that is usually a wise tactic, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with buying those younger players some time to mature by supplementing your lineup with veterans that have two or three years left in the tank.  For instance, in one of my leagues, I have Zac Stacy and Mike Gillislee, but to offset the unknowns of rookies and their first year production, I drafted Jamaal Charles, Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson.  With that strategy, I knew that I would have production at the running back position for at least two years, and by then, Gillislee may be able to get some playing time.

A key dynamic to building any dynasty or keeper team is balance.  It is hard to not go overboard on gathering young talent with hopes they will turn into the stars of tomorrow, but keep in mind, while targeting those younger players, you’re passing over veterans that have a history of producing regularly.  There is risk involved when looking at it from both aspects.  The rookies or sophomores may never develop into what was forecast for them, but on the other hand, the veterans that have been so reliable may now be slowing down and losing touches to other playmakers on their teams.

With that said, every owner has a different mindset going into each season.  While someone is rebuilding their team with young players, another few owners are gathering proven talent to help them immediately – this is what makes dynasty football so great.  The key is knowing your own team and having a plan on how to handle aging assets.  It is easy to grow attached to older players, especially when they take you to the playoffs annually, but at some point the cord must be cut and it’s important to know which guys to move on from.  Be thorough in your evaluation as selling off a veteran too soon may doom your team that year.  Many people said to sell Jamaal Charles while the hype surrounding him was “highest” in August last year, but he went on to be the top running back this past season and only improved his value for 2014.  Dynasty football is made for a gambling man and gambling is what it’s all about.  Owners get anxious about retaining aging players too long and will often take a draft pick or two in return to help their team going forward.  Depending on your team’s specific situation, sending a couple draft picks away for a proven commodity may be the best path to a championship.

Many of the following players are heading into uncertain circumstances as Free Agency approaches, or as the landscape of their teams change, but they are worth keeping a close eye on.  Here are the most intriguing 27 and older running backs who may be very acquirable.

**Age reflects how old the player will be at the beginning of the 2014 season**

Player Name

Age

Status

Andre Brown

27

Free Agent

LeGarrette Blount

27

Free Agent

Joique Bell

28

Restricted Free Agent

James Starks

28

Free Agent

Ahmad Bradshaw

28

Free Agent

Rashad Jennings

29

Free Agent

Chris Johnson

29

High Salary; Likely To Be Cut

Pierre Thomas

29

Potential Cap Casualty

The name that jumps off that list is Chris Johnson, who turns 29 in September.  The Titans have made it clear that he will need to take a pay cut if he’d like to remain in Nashville, but he has repeatedly said he will not budge.  No matter what happens, he will be a starting running back for a team next year, as there is no chance he will go to a team to be a backup.  His track record of never missing a game is quite impressive, but his inconsistent production and recent knee procedure may be reason enough for the current owner to be uneasy.  Johnson is no longer a player to build your team around, but he can be a solid supplement to your running back corps.  Joique Bell is another player who proved his worth in 2013 by nearly outperforming Reggie Bush in Detroit.  He is a versatile running back who can catch the ball, get the hard yards and protect the quarterback when called upon.  LeGarrette Blount is probably the most interesting player to watch in free agency, as he blew up the last couple weeks of the regular season and then opened a lot of eyes during the playoffs and emerged as the top running back in New England.  Now he heads into free agency and no one knows if the Patriots will make him an offer.  Any time a player is a free agent or not in good standing with his current team, his fantasy owner may be looking to sell.  Most of these guys are not good foundation players, but very capable additions to a competitive team.  The RBs that are listed above are worth making a move for, depending on positional needs and how close your team is to a championship.

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