Dynasty Stock Market: Mixing in the Rookies

Ryan McDowell Posted On February 7, 2014

manziel This week, we began the February mock drafts and thanks to the folks at MyFantasyLeague.com, we were able to include the incoming rookie class of 2014. In preparation for the six mock drafts, which I knew I’d be a part of, I began to study my own rankings, along with the January ADP, looking for players I considered values in each area of the draft. Through this process, I began to consider where and how to value many of the top rookies which make up this strong class. I have been so caught up in thinking about and planning for my upcoming rookie drafts and how I would value each rookie in comparison to the fellow rookies in that class that I have given little thought to how to value all of the rookies when grouped with the current crop of NFL players.

There are multiple ways to approach this decision of where to place incoming rookies and it can be an overwhelming process if you are not confident in your game plan. For example, if you own the 1.01 rookie pick and plan on taking Clemson’s Sammy Watkins, you are likely to be inundated with some solid trade offers. You might have a list of seven wide receivers you would take in exchange for the pick. Does this mean Watkins should be your eighth ranked wide receiver? Common sense says yes, but it’s not always that simple. You have to consider the current market value of the veteran player, which is very fluid. Another thing to consider is where in a startup unproven rookies should be taken in comparison to the available veterans. For example, if I am picking in the fifth round of a startup draft, I could be facing a decision on who to grab as my WR3 – Torrey Smith or Mike Evans. With the assumption that Evans will be the popular pick at 1.02, I ask myself if I would prefer Smith or the 1.02 pick. For me, the pick is the hands down winner here, and that will often be the case. This relies on placing a rookie pick value on nearly all relevant veterans.

Anyway, back to the mock draft preparation. To simplify things, I began to consider where in my current set of rankings some of the top rookies would be slated and here is what I came up with. I’ll begin with my current rankings for the top players from each position and include an explanation of where I would currently rank some of the top rookies among those veterans. Also, a couple of things to remember. First, this is just my opinion and many of my fellow DLF writers would have very different rankings. Secondly, I build my team around youth at all positions, so if a rookie seems to be ranked higher than you might think, he probably is.

Quarterback

Andrew Luck, IND
Cam Newton, CAR
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Robert Griffin III, WAS
Matthew Stafford, DET
Russell Wilson, SEA
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Drew Brees, NO
Nick Foles, PHI
Matt Ryan, ATL
Peyton Manning, DEN
Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Tony Romo, DAL
E.J. Manuel, BUF
Tom Brady, NE

Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

The former Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been the presumed top quarterback and potential top overall pick for months, but as often happens during draft season, Bridgewater’s game is being picked apart by amateur and professional draftniks. As a result of some of these flaws, such as footwork and his ability when out of the pocket, Bridgewater’s dynasty value is taking a small hit. It appeared as though he would likely be a mid first round rookie pick, but with the emergence of other quarterbacks and the overall depth at other positions, it would now be somewhat of an upset if any quarterback is taken among the top twelve picks in a rookie draft. Bridgewater is one of the youngest quarterbacks available in the draft as he won’t turn twenty-two years old until midway through his rookie season. That has to be a valuable asset to dynasty owners. I would currently rank Bridgewater as my QB10, behind Nick Foles and just ahead of Matt Ryan. A strong start to his rookie season, in which he has a strong chance to start from day one, could quickly move him up as high as QB4 overall.

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

I mentioned Bridgewater was among the youngest quarterback prospects in the upcoming draft, but the youngest relevant quarterback prospect is former Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, who just turned 21 in December. Combine that with his late season heroics and Manziel has now drawn even with Bridgewater, at least, in the quest to be the top overall draft pick of the Houston Texans. Manziel had some off the field concerns over the past year, but nothing that will affect him as a professional. He’s also been praised for his intangibles, but there’s plenty to like in his game as well. He has one thing Bridgewater lacks and that’s the ability to gain yardage as a rusher. His no holds barred style reminds me of Robert Griffin III as he seems to invite contact. Though he had no serious injuries at College Station, I do have concerns about him taking big hits as a pro. I’ve long had concerns about how Manziel’s game would translate to the NFL and due to that, I still rank him ever so slightly behind Bridgewater, but I am definitely coming around on him as a prospect and would not be surprised to see many dynasty owners opt for him over Bridgewater during rookie draft season. For now, I’ll place Manziel directly behind Bridgewater, ranking him QB11 and moving Matt Ryan to QB12.

Here are my updated quarterback rankings:

Andrew Luck, IND
Cam Newton, CAR
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Robert Griffin III, WAS
Matthew Stafford, DET
Russell Wilson, SEA
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Drew Brees, NO
Nick Foles, PHI
Teddy Bridgewater
Johnny Manziel
Matt Ryan, ATL
Peyton Manning, DEN
Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Tony Romo, DAL

Tight End

Jimmy Graham, NO
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Jordan Cameron, CLE
Julius Thomas, DEN
Tyler Eifert, CIN
Ladarius Green, SD
Jordan Reed, WAS
Zach Ertz, PHI
Vernon Davis, SF
Jason Witten, DAL
Dennis Pitta, BAL
Dwayne Allen, IND

Eric Ebron, North Carolina

Ebron was one of two tight ends to have a breakout college season and it couldn’t have happened at a better time, with the disappointing seasons of the top two consensus tight ends entering the season. He has an ideal combination of size and speed and he’s not a terrible blocker, as can often be said for incoming rookie tight ends.

After the top two tight ends, I see a tier where there’s very little difference between TE3 and TE7. I would easily rank Ebron over the group of older and injured tight ends making up the bottom of my current TE1 tier. For now, I’ll slot Ebron as TE8, immediately after Jordan Reed.

Jace Amaro, Texas Tech

Amaro put up some huge statistics for the Red Raiders over the past two years. He has better hands than Ebron and is more polished, though probably not quite as athletic. He is a solid blocker as well, meaning he could see the field immediately in his rookie season. While I slightly prefer Ebron, it’s very close and I’ll plug in Amaro after Ebron and before Zach Ertz, making him my TE9.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington

ASJ has everything you’d want from a tight end when you see him on the field. He’s big and athlietic, has solid speed and can make the tough catch over the middle. When it comes to his character and off the field concerns, his dynasty value takes some hits. He served a suspension at the beginning of the season for a DUI arrest and his work ethic has often been questioned. With two other strong options, that’s enough to place him third on my list, yet his upside and natural ability still earn him a spot on this list. As the combine nears and we learn more about each of these prospects, I expect a bit of separation between them, but for now, I have them all ranked very closely. Seferian-Jenkins comes in as my TE10 as the third of the trio of top tight ends.

These additions leave me with a top twelve tight end group that looks like this:

Jimmy Graham, NO
Rob Gronkowski, NE
Jordan Cameron, CLE
Julius Thomas, DEN
Tyler Eifert, CIN
Ladarius Green, SD
Jordan Reed, WAS
Eric Ebron
Jace Amaro
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Zach Ertz, PHI
Vernon Davis, SF

Check back next week when I take an initial look at how the rookie running backs and wide receivers rank amongst the veterans at their positions.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.