Dynasty Stock Market: 2QB ADP

Ryan McDowell

One of the great things about fantasy football is the wide variety of leagues offered. There are so many characteristics of a dynasty league that can be manipulated to create a different affect, which often changes the value of a specific position. Leagues can use a draft or an auction to disperse players. Starting lineups or scoring formats can be adjusted from the norm. Developmental players can be included – those are just a few ways leagues can be altered to fit the wants and needs of the group of participating owners and it’s what makes our game of fantasy football so unique. In fact, it seems like each of these niche markets are growing, just as dynasty leagues continue to grow in popularity. I’m not even sure what “normal” is anymore when it comes to dynasty leagues.

One of the fastest growing segments of dynasty leagues (and fantasy football in general, including redraft and daily fantasy games) involves including two starting quarterbacks in each team’s lineup. This could be done by requiring two starting quarterbacks or through what’s called a superflex option, which typically allows owners to choose any offensive player in a starting flex spot. If you’ve ever played in a league that requires only one starting quarterback, and I’m sure most of you have, you understand the value, or lack thereof, attributed to the quarterback position. Outside of the very top tier of quarterbacks, it’s difficult to even acquire a first round rookie pick in exchange for one. Many owners instill the late round quarterback theory and are satisfied trotting out a “boring” option, yet one who still has the potential to score twenty or more fantasy points per week. After all, quarterbacks are traditionally the highest scoring fantasy players, but the gap between the QB5 and QB25 is often insignificant. Just as leagues sought to add value to the tight end position by rewarding them with 1.25 or 1.5 points per reception, some dynasty leagues have moved to the two quarterback starting format.

Because of this trend, I have chosen to add some two quarterback, or 2QB, dynasty mock drafts to the current six dynasty mock drafts done on a monthly basis. With only two 2QB mocks done, the data is not quite a solid, but does offer some insight for what owners can expect a league such as this to look like. As I present this 2QB data, I also wanted to focus on the difference in average draft position between the 2QB leagues and the “traditional” leagues in which only one starting quarterback is allowed. As you might have guessed, I’ll start with a look at the quarterback position.

Quarterback Dynasty ADP 2QB Dynasty ADP
Andrew Luck 30.8 1.5
Cam Newton 35.8 2
Aaron Rodgers 22.3 3
Drew Brees 48.2 7.5
Matthew Stafford 63.3 13
Russell Wilson 51.5 13.5
Nick Foles 60.2 15
Peyton Manning 63 15.5
Matt Ryan 71.3 20
Colin Kaepernick 74.7 21
Robert Griffin III 78.8 27.5
Tom Brady 111.5 27.5
Ryan Tannehill 117.7 35
Jay Cutler 138.3 37.5
Andy Dalton 134.8 38
Tony Romo 167.8 39
Philip Rivers 138.7 45.5
EJ Manuel 154.7 54
Joe Flacco 195.2 54.5
Alex Smith 218.3 58.5
Ben Roethlisberger 139 61.5
Sam Bradford 160.7 82.5
Eli Manning 183 87.5
Geno Smith 181.7 92
Mike Glennon 205 99
Jake Locker 207.8 112
Carson Palmer 235.3 140
Kirk Cousins 194.7 147
Brian Hoyer 227.7 147
Brock Osweiler 213.2 149
Ryan Mallett 213.2 161

Here are some things I noticed from this group of quarterbacks:

*Obviously, the ADP of each quarterback is higher in the 2QB format than the one quarterback. While this is no surprise, it is interesting to see how some of the players see huge jumps in value while others are minimal in comparison.

*Though every quarterback on the list saw their ADP jump by at least a full round, it was the group at the top that had the biggest percentage jump. Top quarterbacks like Andrew Luck and Cam Newton went from third rounders to being the top two overall players.

*In the one quarterback format, the Packers Aaron Rodgers was the top quarterback off the board, but he fell to third in the 2QB format behind Luck and Newton. While this could just be a case of owner preference, it also shows that a young quarterback viewed as elite is the most valuable of all assets.

*There are many players who have little to no value in most formats that see a great increase in value in 2QB leagues. Players like Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, EJ Manuel, Joe Flacco and Alex Smith are being drafted in the top five rounds due to the scarcity of quarterbacks.

*Following up that point, many veterans who have almost no value in most leagues suddenly are assets in these leagues. In a one quarterback league, owners might be interested in gambling on backup quarterbacks like Brock Osweiler, Kirk Cousins or Ryan Mallett as a stash player on the end of their roster. While these players certainly have increased value in 2QB leagues, current starting quarterbacks like Carson Palmer, Jake Locker and Brian Hoyer has bypassed them.

With so many quarterbacks climbing the ADP charts in the two quarterback format, you can guess what is happening with players at other positions. There is some great value to be had for the owners who choose not to chase mediocre quarterbacks in the early and middle rounds. Here’s a look at the ADP differences among some of the top running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

Name Dynasty ADP 2QB Dynasty ADP
AJ Green 1.3 5.5
Josh Gordon 3.2 13
Calvin Johnson 3.3 10
LeSean McCoy 4.7 5.5
Dez Bryant 5.3 8.5
Jamaal Charles 6.3 6.5
Jimmy Graham 7 15
Julio Jones 7.2 16
Demaryius Thomas 7.8 18.5
Alshon Jeffery 11.5 22
Randall Cobb 12.3 23
Eddie Lacy 14 12.5
Giovani Bernard 14.8 22
Le’Veon Bell 17 35
Rob Gronkowski 17.5 37
Doug Martin 17.8 16.5
Antonio Brown 19.7 40.5
Cordarrelle Patterson 19.7 40
Adrian Peterson 20.2 23.5
CJ Spiller 21.2 33.5
Matt Forte 21.5 30.5

 

*I chose to only highlight the players who were selected before the first quarterback, Rodgers, in the start one quarterback format. That means that these twenty-one players can all be considered to be more valuable than any quarterback in most formats. Of course, we know that’s not the case in a 2QB league.

*One thing that jumps out to me is the relatively small change in the value of the top running backs in 2QB leagues. We know supply and demand greatly affects the value of quarterbacks, but it seems like owners are viewing running backs in the same way. In fact, a pair of backs, Eddie Lacy and Doug Martin, actually saw their ADP improve in the 2QB leagues.

*Wide receivers were the real victims here. While the top overall player in start one leagues, AJ Green, maintained his status fairly well, other highly regarded wideouts, like Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon fell at least half a round, with Gordon even falling out of the first round altogether. This is likely due to the perceived depth of the wide receiver position and should show us all that in these types of leagues, it might be best to wait for wide receivers.

If you’re interested in the full list of players and their ADP in the two quarterback leagues, I’ve listed that below.

OVERALL AVG Mock 1 Mock 2
Luck, Andrew IND QB

1.5

1

2

Newton, Cam CAR QB

2.0

3

1

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

3.0

2

4

Green, A.J. CIN WR

5.5

8

3

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

5.5

5

6

Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

6.5

6

7

Brees, Drew NOS QB

7.5

4

11

Bryant, Dez DAL WR

8.5

9

8

Johnson, Calvin DET WR

10.0

11

9

Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

12.5

15

10

Gordon, Josh CLE WR

13.0

13

13

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

13.0

14

12

Wilson, Russell SEA QB

13.5

10

17

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE

15.0

12

18

Foles, Nick PHI QB

15.0

25

5

Manning, Peyton DEN QB

15.5

7

24

Jones, Julio ATL WR

16.0

17

15

Martin, Doug TBB RB

16.5

19

14

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

18.5

16

21

Ryan, Matt ATL QB

20.0

21

19

Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB

21.0

26

16

Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR

22.0

22

22

Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

22.0

24

20

Cobb, Randall GBP WR

23.0

23

23

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

23.5

20

27

Marshall, Brandon CHI WR

25.0

18

32

Griffin III, Robert WAS QB

27.5

27

28

Brady, Tom NEP QB

27.5

30

25

Forte, Matt CHI RB

30.5

28

33

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

33.5

41

26

Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB

35.0

32

38

Bell, Le’Veon PIT RB

35.0

39

31

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

37.0

37

37

Cutler, Jay CHI QB

37.5

29

46

Dalton, Andy CIN QB

38.0

34

42

Romo, Tony DAL QB

39.0

35

43

Nelson, Jordy GBP WR

39.0

44

34

Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

40.0

40

40

Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB

40.5

42

39

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

40.5

51

30

Stacy, Zac STL RB

40.5

52

29

Garcon, Pierre WAS WR

42.0

49

35

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR

45.0

54

36

Rivers, Philip SDC QB

45.5

33

58

Morris, Alfred WAS RB

46.5

45

48

Allen, Keenan SDC WR

46.5

48

45

Floyd, Michael ARI WR

47.0

47

47

Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

48.5

56

41

Murray, DeMarco DAL RB

50.5

46

55

Cruz, Victor NYG WR

52.0

38

66

Vereen, Shane NEP RB

53.0

50

56

Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

54.0

43

65

Jackson, Vincent TBB WR

54.5

31

78

Flacco, Joe BAL QB

54.5

65

44

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

55.5

59

52

Cameron, Jordan CLE TE

57.0

64

50

Harvin, Percy SEA WR

58.0

67

49

Smith, Alex KCC QB

58.5

53

64

Smith, Torrey BAL WR

59.5

60

59

Rice, Ray BAL RB

60.5

70

51

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

61.5

36

87

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

62.5

62

63

Richardson, Trent IND RB

63.0

57

69

Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

64.0

68

60

Wright, Kendall TEN WR

64.5

58

71

Thomas, Julius DEN TE

65.5

69

62

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

65.5

77

54

Austin, Tavon STL WR

67.5

63

72

Mathews, Ryan SDC RB

67.5

74

61

Davis, Vernon SFO TE

68.0

66

70

Decker, Eric DEN WR

69.5

71

68

Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

73.0

73

73

Ball, Montee DEN RB

75.0

93

57

Michael, Christine SEA RB

79.0

72

86

Bush, Reggie DET RB

80.0

80

80

Ellington, Andre ARI RB

80.0

107

53

Wilson, David NYG RB

82.0

55

109

Witten, Jason DAL TE

82.0

75

89

Bradford, Sam STL QB

82.5

61

104

Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

82.5

88

77

Reed, Jordan WAS TE

83.5

91

76

Randle, Rueben NYG WR

84.0

84

84

Ridley, Stevan NEP RB

85.5

86

85

Miller, Lamar MIA RB

86.0

105

67

Manning, Eli NYG QB

87.5

96

79

Foster, Arian HOU RB

89.0

78

100

Green, Ladarius SDC TE

89.5

98

81

Hunter, Justin TEN WR

90.0

87

93

Smith, Geno NYJ QB

92.0

101

83

Wallace, Mike MIA WR

92.5

95

90

Amendola, Danny NEP WR

94.0

76

112

Johnson, Andre HOU WR

94.5

83

106

Bell, Joique DET RB

95.0

99

91

Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

95.0

116

74

White, Roddy ATL WR

95.5

90

101

Gore, Frank SFO RB

96.0

110

82

Glennon, Mike TBB QB

99.0

103

95

Welker, Wes DEN WR

100.0

106

94

Sproles, Darren NOS RB

101.0

79

123

Ertz, Zach PHI TE

101.5

104

99

Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR

102.0

94

110

Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

105.0

113

97

Fleener, Coby IND TE

105.5

82

129

Allen, Dwayne IND TE

105.5

92

119

Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

106.5

100

113

Woods, Robert BUF WR

107.0

97

117

Stills, Kenny NOS WR

107.0

126

88

Colston, Marques NOS WR

109.0

143

75

Williams, Terrance DAL WR

110.0

89

131

Woodhead, Danny SDC RB

111.0

85

137

Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

111.0

124

98

Locker, Jake TEN QB

112.0

81

143

McFadden, Darren OAK RB

113.0

119

107

Johnson, Chris TEN RB

113.5

111

116

Rogers, Da’Rick IND WR

113.5

112

115

Olsen, Greg CAR TE

115.5

120

111

Pierce, Bernard BAL RB

118.5

132

105

Jones, Marvin CIN WR

118.5

141

96

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

119.0

114

124

Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

121.0

140

102

Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR

123.0

125

121

Jones, James GBP WR

126.5

123

130

Ingram, Mark NOS RB

128.5

118

139

Jackson, Steven ATL RB

129.5

102

157

Davis, Knile KCC RB

129.5

137

122

Tate, Ben HOU RB

130.0

109

151

Pitta, Dennis BAL TE

130.0

134

126

Edelman, Julian NEP WR

130.5

121

140

Cooper, Riley PHI WR

131.0

170

92

Ivory, Chris NYJ RB

131.5

129

134

Brown, Bryce PHI RB

131.5

131

132

Brown, Andre NYG RB

132.0

128

136

Murray, Latavius OAK RB

132.5

115

150

Jennings, Rashad OAK RB

135.5

122

149

Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB

135.5

146

125

Brown, Vincent SDC WR

138.5

163

114

Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

139.0

133

145

Bennett, Martellus CHI TE

139.0

158

120

Moore, Denarius OAK WR

140.0

152

128

Palmer, Carson ARI QB

140.0

177

103

Shorts, Cecil JAC WR

141.5

108

175

Patton, Quinton SFO WR

141.5

127

156

Johnson, Stevie BUF WR

141.5

165

118

Tate, Golden SEA WR

144.0

117

171

Hunter, Kendall SFO RB

144.5

136

153

Alexander, Danario SDC WR

146.0

130

162

Cousins, Kirk WAS QB

147.0

135

159

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

147.0

150

144

Hoyer, Brian CLE QB

147.0

186

108

Streater, Rod OAK WR

148.5

164

133

Osweiler, Brock DEN QB

149.0

157

141

Hartline, Brian MIA WR

149.5

145

154

Helu, Roy WAS RB

150.5

166

135

Jackson, Fred BUF RB

152.0

162

142

Britt, Kenny TEN WR

154.0

156

152

Jennings, Greg MIN WR

159.5

154

165

Boykin, Jarrett GBP WR

160.5

175

146

Mallett, Ryan NEP QB

161.0

148

174

Robinson, Khiry NOS RB

161.5

196

127

Turbin, Robert SEA RB

162.0

144

180

Bailey, Stedman STL WR

163.5

180

147

Greene, Shonn TEN RB

164.5

159

170

Vick, Michael PHI QB

164.5

174

155

Fauria, Joseph DET TE

164.5

191

138

Cook, Jared STL TE

165.0

172

158

Brown, Marlon BAL WR

165.5

155

176

Clay, Charles MIA TE

166.0

169

163

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

166.0

171

161

Wayne, Reggie IND WR

166.5

151

182

Boldin, Anquan SFO WR

166.5

167

166

Pryor, Terrelle OAK QB

169.0

142

196

Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

169.0

160

178

Williams, Mike TBB WR

169.5

153

186

Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR

171.0

147

195

Smith, Steve CAR WR

173.5

179

168

Housler, Robert ARI TE

175.0

161

189

Fitzpatrick, Ryan TEN QB

178.0

183

173

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

178.5

185

172

Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR

178.5

209

148

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE

180.5

138

223

Holmes, Andre OAK WR

181.5

184

179

Schaub, Matt HOU QB

183.0

176

190

Jernigan, Jerrel NYG WR

183.0

206

160

Walker, Delanie TEN TE

183.5

203

164

Dunbar, Lance DAL RB

187.0

149

225

Brazill, LaVon IND WR

189.0

197

181

Baker, Edwin CLE RB

190.0

139

241

Lewis, Dion CLE RB

190.0

189

191

Randle, Joseph DAL RB

190.5

178

203

Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR

193.0

181

205

Wright, Tim TBB TE

193.0

187

199

Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB

193.5

218

169

Gerhart, Toby MIN RB

194.0

173

215

Daniels, Owen HOU TE

196.5

210

183

Jones, Jacoby BAL WR

199.5

211

188

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

200.0

200

200

Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB

201.0

193

209

Hill, Stephen NYJ WR

201.0

204

198

Brown, Donald IND RB

204.0

241

167

Freeman, Josh MIN QB

204.5

168

241

Jenkins, A.J. KCC WR

204.5

198

211

Givens, Chris STL WR

205.5

195

216

Willson, Luke SEA TE

206.0

208

204

McCluster, Dexter KCC WR

207.5

222

193

Cunningham, Benny STL RB

209.0

241

177

Robinson, Denard JAC RB

209.5

207

212

Boyce, Josh NEP WR

211.0

228

194

Mendenhall, Rashard ARI RB

211.5

182

241

Bostick, Brandon GBP TE

211.5

188

235

James, LaMichael SFO RB

211.5

202

221

Little, Greg CLE WR

212.0

217

207

Baldwin, Doug SEA WR

212.0

239

185

Ginn Jr., Ted CAR WR

212.5

241

184

Richardson, Daryl STL RB

213.5

190

237

Kerley, Jeremy NYJ WR

213.5

235

192

James, Mike TBB RB

214.0

201

227

Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB

214.0

231

197

Anderson, C.J. DEN RB

214.0

241

187

Ballard, Vick IND RB

216.5

192

241

Miller, Heath PIT TE

217.5

194

241

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

218.0

234

202

Leshoure, Mikel DET RB

218.5

224

213

Quick, Brian STL WR

219.5

219

220

Toilolo, Levine ATL TE

220.0

199

241

Bush, Michael CHI RB

221.0

241

201

Griffin, Ryan HOU TE

222.0

220

224

Graham, Garrett HOU TE

223.0

205

241

Dixon, Anthony SFO RB

223.5

237

210

Davis, Fred WAS TE

223.5

241

206

Toon, Nick NOS WR

224.0

215

233

Beasley, Cole DAL WR

224.5

241

208

Powell, Bilal NYJ RB

226.0

238

214

Jones, Landry PIT QB

226.5

212

241

Douglas, Harry ATL WR

226.5

223

230

Kelce, Travis KCC TE

227.0

213

241

Escobar, Gavin DAL TE

227.5

214

241

Henne, Chad JAC QB

228.5

216

241

Thomas, Daniel MIA RB

229.0

241

217

Austin, Miles DAL WR

229.5

241

218

Moore, Lance NOS WR

230.0

241

219

Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB

231.0

221

241

Broyles, Ryan DET WR

231.5

241

222

Bray, Tyler KCC QB

233.0

225

241

Egnew, Michael MIA TE

233.5

226

241

Keenum, Case HOU QB

233.5

241

226

McCown, Josh CHI QB

234.0

227

241

Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR

234.5

241

228

Johnson, Dennis HOU RB

235.0

229

241

Heyward-Bey, Darrius IND WR

235.0

241

229

Harris, DuJuan GBP RB

235.5

230

241

Barner, Kenjon CAR RB

236.0

241

231

Sanders, Ace JAC WR

236.5

232

241

Ogbonnaya, Chris CLE RB

236.5

241

232

Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR

237.0

233

241

Rainey, Bobby TBB RB

237.5

241

234

Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

238.5

236

241

Moore, Kellen DET QB

238.5

241

236

Gates, Antonio SDC TE

239.5

241

238

Keller, Dustin MIA TE

240.0

241

239

Chandler, Scott BUF TE

240.5

240

241

Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR

240.5

241

240

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ryan mcdowell