Rookie Mock Draft – Round One

Jacob Feldman

leeThe college bowl season is complete, Florida State has broken the SEC’s reign for at least one year and top college players across the country have turned their gaze towards the NFL’s draft process. Fantasy owners are going through a similar process with fantasy football leagues entering the offseason and we all turn our collective gaze towards the same process and the fresh new rookies who are participating in it.

This mock draft kicks off a full season of staff rookie mock drafts just for our premium subscribers! This is the first of eight three round mock drafts we as a staff will provide for you. We will have mock drafts staggered throughout the off-season with rookie only mock drafts prior to the combine, just after the combine, prior to the draft, just after the draft, June, July and August. In addition to all of those, we will also toss in a few rookie only mock drafts with some alternate setups for those of you who play in leagues outside of the PPR leagues that are now the norm.

Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:

1)      Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2)      Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3)      Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. This is especially true at this point in the year when the vast majority of us are just beginning our 2014 rookie evaluations.

The players in this mock, especially in the third round, are players that have caught our eye early in the process. There will be many changes as time goes on, both players shooting up and falling off our draft boards. A perfect example from last year is Le’Veon Bell. He wasn’t drafted in the first of our initial mock draft last year but was a top four pick in our later mock drafts.

Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles, but here is round one!

1.01  – Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson

Andy’s thoughts: He is the most talented wide receiver in this class.  He is explosive, fights for the ball, has fantastic hands and makes defenders miss.  I have him in my top ten dynasty receivers regardless of where he lands.  With the 1.01 rookie pick, I could not imagine going any other way.

My thoughts: It has been a long time since there has been a first overall pick in fantasy drafts who was virtually the unanimous choice this early in the draft process. I really don’t know how anyone could go any other direction regardless of your league setup. I don’t think Watkins is the same level of a prospect as Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, or Julio Jones but he is close. He is one of the most explosive receivers with size and hands that we have seen in a long time. It is extremely impressive he managed 14.5 yards per reception when almost sixty percent of his catches were within two yards of the line of scrimmage. This was the easiest pick in the whole draft.

1.02  – Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M

Jeff H’s thoughts: While I have concerns about Evans’ speed, his size-playmaking dynamic cannot be ignored.  I’m a sucker for bigger receivers (6’5″/224), especially if they can run, but I’ll give Evans a pass because of his catch radius, physicality and ability to make plays.  If he can run a 4.60 or better, he’ll be an easy first round selection.  I’ll be watching his drafted situation and will subtract points if he falls to the New York Jets, but at least he’d be an immediate starter.  Receivers have a very high bust rate in fantasy but size and situation can help immensely.

My thoughts: Evans might be the most complete receiver in this draft outside of his speed. He lacks the sheer explosiveness of Watkins but with his size and ability to go after the ball he is the easy number two choice out of this draft class right now. There will be an awful lot made out of his lack of straight line speed, but there are a quite a few top flight receivers who ran 4.5-4.6 seconds in the 40 yard dash such as Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, and Antonio Brown. If that is the only knock, I’m not worried.

1.03 Marqise Lee, WR USC

Jeff B’s thoughts: It’s no secret that Marqise Lee had a very disappointing junior year following his spectacular Biletnikoff Award winning sophomore campaign. However, given that the entire USC football program came crashing down around him, Lee deserves the benefit of the doubt in this case. The bottom line is that he’s a speedster and a playmaker with an NFL ready body. If he falls in the draft to a team with an established offense that can plug-and-play him as their WR2 (the Detroit Lions, for example), he could legitimately have a case as being worthy of being the number one overall selection in dynasty rookie drafts.

My thoughts: Lee might be this year’s Keenan Allen. Much like Allen, he had a spectacular season the year prior to being draft eligible before falling on his face the year he could enter the draft. Like Allen, Lee struggled with injuries the year of the draft and was forced to deal with a mess at the quarterback position. Also like Allen, Lee’s talent and potential are huge! Along with Evans and Watkins, Lee rounds out what is an unquestioned top three in this year’s draft at this point in time. Letting any of them slip out of the top three is a mistake. No one else is in the top two tiers of rookies right now.

1.04  – Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida St.

Brian’s thoughts: At this point in the draft my top three wide receivers are off the board, but I really like Benjamin and his pro potential. At 6’5” and 230 pounds, he is a physical freak with unique size and speed combination. His ability to high point the ball and make difficult catches make him a prospect who pro teams love as a potential WR1. Some of Benjamin’s draw backs include age (he will be 23 in February), lack of focus (dropping easy passes), and average speed (4.5-4.6). Benjamin will be an immediate red zone threat at the next level and if he can improve his route running and focus, he could be the next “big thing” in the NFL

My thoughts: At this point in time, after the big three, the draft board is wide open. You could make an argument for any one of at least nine players at this slot in the draft. It is going to take a few months of the pre-draft process to help shake out the third tier of rookies. While he is definitely in the discussion, I’m not as big of a fan of Benjamin as some others. His drops and lack of a run after the catch ability are concerning. I think that a lot of his big plays were a result of his quarterback buying a lot of extra time while Benjamin ran around until he finally got open.

1.05  – Jordan Matthews, WR Vanderbilt

My thoughts: This wasn’t an easy pick to make. Like I said before, after the top three there are a multitude of players that could be picked. Matthews is the fourth receiver in my rankings at this point in time, a decent distance behind Lee and just barely ahead of Allen Robinson of Penn State. I also considered going with a different position, but there are so many question marks right now, especially at the running back position. Matthews is a big receiver, listed at 6’3” and 206 pounds and has been one of the most productive receivers in all of college football over the last two years while playing in a conference known for its defense.

Matthews is a hard worker that plays football the right way. He runs great routes, gets in and out of breaks cleanly, has soft hands, is a willing blocker, and does a nice job of adjusting to poorly thrown balls. The knock against him is that he isn’t an exceptional athlete. He can jump but his top end speed as well as his ability to make defenders miss after the catch isn’t anything special which could limit his upside a bit. None the less, his productivity and refinement in the passing game will make NFL teams notice.

1.06  – KaDeem Carey, RB Arizona

Tim’s thoughts: Very difficult to select running backs at this point in the draft process. Probably more so than any other position, situation will impact running back draft positions in dynasty leagues. In the absence of knowing I selected Carey because he has the most balanced mix of speed, power and size.

My thoughts: Tim is absolutely right when he says running backs are difficult to draft right now. Even more so than most years, the draft order of running backs will be all over the board this year. When Melvin Gordon went back to Wisconsin it really hurt this running back class. As far as Carey goes, he is a bit on the small side but has been very durable while carrying a very heavy load (652 carries) over the last two years. He has ability for sure, but his off the field character issues are a definite concern and could make him slide a ways in the NFL draft.

1.07  – Lache Seastrunk, RB Baylor

Ryan’s thoughts: In rookie drafts, I always draft the best available player, with little attention paid to my team’s needs. This would especially be the case in drafts taking place before the NFL draft. Lache Seastrunk has been considered the front runner to be the top rookie running back for quite a while, but now the field seems to be catching up to him. Seastrunk has a perfect mix of speed, power and elusiveness. There has been some recent criticism that Seastrunk was not involved in the passing game. While this is true, Baylor rarely throws to their running backs at all. I am confident that Seastrunk will prove a willing and able receiver once he’s in the league.

My thoughts: If you asked five different fantasy writers who the top running back on their board is, it is very possible that you could get five different answers. Seastrunk is near the bottom of my top five running backs because I haven’t been very impressed with his vision and I question his ability to be anything more than the speed part of a committee. He has exceptional speed, quickness to the edge, and might be the most explosive of the top running backs. He’ll need more than speed and quickness at the next level. Like Ryan mentioned, the lack of participation in the passing game is a concern as are some minor character issues from his past in addition to the vision issues. On the right team, he could be a very valuable compliment though. His landing spot is going to mean more than most when it comes to his value.

1.08  – Bishop Sankey, RB Washington

Ghost’s thoughts: I made this pick less because I am overly intrigued by Sankey and more because of the value he could present at this pick. I could see Sankey being a very decent running back for a team and maybe even a bell cow but not one that’s going to break records or be an all-Pro every year. However, at the 1.08 pick being able to get a running back who could be a starter for his team is just too much to pass up.

My thoughts: There are a lot of people who feel Sankey might be the best back in this class. At 205 pounds and 5’10” he has good size and he was very productive at Washington with 3496 yards and 37 touchdowns on 644 carries during his time there. He also showed some ability in the passing game, hauling in about 30 catches each of the last two seasons. The problem is that physically he isn’t special in any way. He reminds me a little bit of a smaller Shonn Greene in that respect. Like Ghost said, I don’t think he’ll be elite by any means, but he could be a solid RB2 for several years.

1.09  – Allen Robinson, WR Penn State

Mark’s thoughts: I haven’t put enough time into the 2014 draft to make too many selections confidently.  However, I’m a Penn State homer and Allen Robinson is a player I’ve seen plenty of.  He makes big plays in heavy coverage, has good hands and plays faster than he’ll run at the combine.  Playing in Bill O’Brien’s NFL style offense can’t hurt his prospects of early contributions as well.  I think he’s a very similar player to Jordan Matthews so to get him four picks later, feels like a bargain.

My thoughts: As I mentioned before, I went back and forth a bit with my selection and if I didn’t take Matthews it probably would have been Robinson. Robinson is another big receiver at 6’3” and 210 pounds. Better yet, he does a good job of using his body to shield defenders and make plays. He is one of the better receivers in this draft when it comes to going after the ball when it is in the air. It will be interesting to see how fast he runs at the combine because a part of me wonders if he always had to shield defenders because he couldn’t get separation. He’s one to watch and easily in my top five receivers in a great receiver class.

1.10  – Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville

Karl’s thoughts: I expect him to go first in the NFL draft, and he will be evaluated as heavily as any prospect ever. Many will wonder about his size (6’3″ 191 lbs), but putting on weight at the NFL level is something that many quarterbacks have had to do. Tom Brady looked like an eighth grader when he came into the league. I compare Bridgewater to a young Aaron Rodgers. He has excellent field vision, extremely accurate and can pull down the ball to scramble for a first down when necessary. I could see him going as high as 1.03, so getting him at 1.10 is extremely good value.

My thoughts: If you followed last year’s mock drafts, you know I’m not fond of spending first round picks on quarterbacks in traditional leagues. Superflex and two quarterback leagues are completely different, as are leagues with sixteen or more teams. With that said, this seems to be about the right spot to start considering Bridgewater if he goes to the Texans. Taking him at 1.03 as Karl suggests would be a major mistake in my opinion because there is just too much value there. I don’t see Rodgers so much as I see a more polished Ryan Tannehill. I think this is another down year for the quarterback class with the ceiling for any of them being back end of the top ten.

1.11  – Jace Amaro, TE Texas Tech

Dan’s thoughts: It’s rare that a 6’5, 260 pound prospect gets picked in the first round of a rookie draft, but I firmly believe Amaro belongs here.  Officially listed as a tight end, he played primarily out of the slot while at Texas Tech and put up some gaudy numbers.  He caught 106 passes for 1,352 yards and seven touchdowns during his junior season with the Red Raiders.  He has excellent hands and is an incredible route runner, especially considering his size.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fly up dynasty owners’ draft boards over the next few months.

My thoughts: This is a tight end class that could rival the 2010 class. If you are in need of a starter in a year or two, this is your chance. If you haven’t seen any of Amaro’s games, you’re missing out. He isn’t blazing fast or overly athletic like a lot of tight ends, but his game reminds me an awful lot of Jason Witten.  Amaro has spectacular hands and brings in just about anything that is within his massive frame. He does a great job of using his body to shield defenders and always seems to be in position to make the catch. There are some character concerns that go with him, which could cause him to slide, but he’s extremely talented.

1.12  – Tre Mason, RB Auburn

Scott’s thoughts: Mason isn’t the biggest player on the field, but lots of NFL stars are similar size, like Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. Not a burner but runs hard, has solid vision, good lateral agility and is tough to bring down. Had huge games against the toughest competition, like Florida State, Alabama, LSU and Georgia. Mason had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons in the SEC, including 1800+ yards rushing and 24 total touchdowns in 2013. I’ll take that at 1.12.

My thoughts: Mason is going to be a very interesting player to watch through the draft process. He had one of the best years rushing of any running back this year while on a very high profile team. That means he is going to get an awful lot of press and might end up being over hyped. He wasn’t very involved in the passing game, but few were better on the ground. He has excellent quickness, does a good job of finding holes, and breaks a lot of tackles. He also showed great durability and had some massive workloads with seven games over 25 carries with a max of 46 carries for 304 yards against Missouri in the SEC championship game. He’s great value at 1.12.

That concludes our look at the first round of our very first rookie mock draft. Stay tuned for round two on Friday and future drafts down the road!

jacob feldman