Early 2014 Consensus Rankings – Running Backs

Brian Bulmer

The end of the 2013 NFL regular season means the beginning of the dynasty fantasy football season. The offseason affects all active rosters in some way, from new free agent signings, to the rookies of the 2014 NFL draft. With the offseason in full swing we at DLF have taken time to overhaul the rankings system in order to better serve our wonderful followers of DLF.

The consensus top 30 running backs were developed from the most recent rankings of eight of our DLF writers. These rankings reflect the way we see things heading into the 2014 season. It is never too early to get a start on 2014 so without further ado I give you the DLF consensus top 30 running backs.

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1)  Lesean McCoy –Heading into the 2014 NFL season McCoy is coming off of his best statistical season to date. Chip Kelly made McCoy his “bellcow” back with nearly 400 touches in 2014. That many touches may be reason to slow down, but McCoy is only 26 and does not appear to be losing a step.

2)  Jamaal Charles – Andy Reid made sure that Jamaal Charles was his primary weapon in 2013. In turn, Charles produced monster numbers for fantasy owners. Starting the 2014 season he’ll will be 27 years old and will still be the focal point of the offense. Reid love his running backs and Charles is a good one.

3)  Doug Martin – Martin struggled in the Tampa Bay offense in 2013 averaging 3.4 yards per carry and scoring only one touchdown. A shoulder injury forced Martin to injured reserve, but look for Martin to bounce back in 2014. New Offensive Coordinator Jeff Tedford is known for developing quarterbacks and running backs in college. At age 25, Martin has several years to be developed and produce in Tampa Bay.

4)  Gio Bernard – Bernard showed his value to the Bengals in 2013. With over 1,300 total yards and eight touchdowns Gio gave us a taste of his potential upside. Catching 53 passes, he should be a PPR monster for years to come in Cincinnati. At 22 years of age, a dual threat, and a new offensive coordinator, Bernard will only get better.

5)  Eddie Lacy – Lacy had a monster rookie campaign landing him on the ballot for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Lacy will be 24 heading into 2014 and his numbers speak for themselves. He finished the season as a top ten running back playing almost half the season without Aaron Rodgers.  If Green Bay was looking for balance then Lacy has tremendous upside.

6)  Matt Forte – Forte’s true value is in PPR leagues. He finished the 2013 season with 75 catches in the Bears reinvented offense behind new head coach Marc Trestman. Forte’s ceiling makes him a great running back to own for a couple more years, but at 28 he is starting to reach the running back “cliff”. May be the time to sell high for 2015 draft picks in a class with very talented running backs.

7)  CJ Spiller – Spiller had an injury riddled 2013 season and Fred Jackson reaped the benefits. Spiller is a true dual threat running back, but only managed over 20+ touches on five occasions. Frustrated fantasy owners continue to believe in his talent, but at 27 years of age starting the 2014 season, how much longer do owners have to wait?

8)  LeVeon Bell – Despite missing the first three games in 2013 due to injury, Bell still managed to finish as a top 15 running back. Bell showed some flashes of talent and could have finished as a top six running back if here were healthy for all 16 games. Bell will be a young 22 heading into 2014 and has a lot to build on.

9)  Adrian Peterson – Peterson “quietly” finished as a top six running back in 2013 after an amazing 2012 season. Peterson has rushed for 1,000+ yards in 6 out of 7 seasons and has never finished lower than a top eight running back. AD will be 29 heading into 2014, and is close to the running back “cliff”. He has defied the odds before and could easily put up top five running back number for 2-3 more seasons.

10)  DeMarco Murray – Murray will be 26 heading into 2014 after a top ten running back finish in 2013. He finished with 1,000+ yards for the first time in his career and a career high 5.1 yards per carry (YPC). Murray is heading into a contract year in 2014 and will have to prove to fantasy owners that he can be more consistent rather than a roller coaster of production.

11)  Marshawn Lynch – With three straight top five running back finishes, Lynch is primed for another solid year in 2014. The addition of talented running backs Christine Michael and Robert Turbin has fantasy owners wondering when “Beast Mode” will start losing more touches to these young backs. Lynch will be 28 heading into 2014 and will likely put up top ten numbers once again, but the “cliff” is getting close and it may be time to sell high if your team is not in position to win now.

12)  Zac Stacy – Stacy emerged from a cloudy running back situation in St. Louis and produced top 20 running back numbers in 2013. He has top 10 potential in the St. Louis offense. At 23 years of age, it will be exciting to see if he can produce big points if given the opportunity to start for 16 games.

13)  Alfred Morris – Morris’ production was limited in 2013 by a bad defense and a stagnant offense. He is a strong running back to own in standard formats but loses value in PPR formats. He still produced top 20 numbers in both formats this season, but it will be interesting to see how new head coach Jay Gruden will handle the Washington backfield moving forward.

14)  Shane Vereen – Vereen was only healthy for half of the 2013 season but led running backs in targets per game (8.6) and showed that his value is in PPR formats. Vereen, age 25 heading into 2014, has a lot of shelf life left, but his production is limited due to volume in New England. It’s clear that Tom Brady wants to utilize Vereen as much as possible, but will his production ever be maximized for fantasy football owners?

15)  Trent Richardson – One of the most polarizing players on the list is Indianapolis Colt Trent Richardson. His name was often followed by mockery in 2013 due to his lack of production for the Colts and for fantasy owners. After a top ten finish in his rookie campaign Richardson finished outside of the top 30 in fantasy scoring. He will be 24 years of age entering the 2014 season and may be a decent offseason player to acquire but consider him high risk, high reward.

16)  Ryan Mathews – Mathews got the “monkey off his back” after a disappointing 2012 injury riddled season. The addition of new head coach Mike McCoy led to the resurgence of the San Diego Chargers and helped reinvent Mathews as a quality fantasy running back. He finished 2013 as a top 20 running back. Mathews will only be 26 heading into the 2014 season and may be a solid buy low in the fantasy offseason.

17)  Ray Rice – Injuries to the offensive line along with a struggling Ravens offense led to Rice’s downward spiral of fantasy production in 2013. He will be 27 heading into next season and with Bernard Pierce “knocking on the door” it is difficult to determine Rice’s value for 2014 and beyond.

18)  Reggie Bush – Bush finished as a top ten running back in standard and PPR formats in 2013. At age 29 heading into 2014, Bush’s career usage has only been constant the last three seasons. He has topped 250+ touches in four of eight seasons. Joique Bell is a restricted free agent heading into the offseason and how the Lions handle his contract and the NFL draft will give fantasy owners a better idea of his 2014 value.

19)  Arian Foster – Australian for backpain? Foster was an absolutely dominating running back leading up to 2013. His back surgery is a huge red flag and limits his long term value. At 27 years of age Foster may still have a year or two of success. With Gary Kubiak moving on it will be difficult to determine how much the Texans will lean on Foster. At this point they have the entire offseason to address his progress with free agency and the NFL draft.

20)  Christine Michael – This is based on talent, situation, and potential. Michael had 18 touches total in 2013 and the majority came against Atlanta and Jacksonville in blowout wins. His upside is huge in Seattle, but it appears he is still playing behind Robert Turbin. There is a lot to love about him, but fantasy footballers want to see more in 2014.

21)   Knowshon Moreno – Moreno’s offseason will tell us a lot about the situation in Denver. If Moreno hits free agency then Montee Ball becomes an immediate buy if the price isn’t too high, but if Moreno gets resigned it will likely become a RBBC. Moreno had top five numbers in Denver in 2013, but things could look a lot different in 2014.

22)   Steven Ridley – At this point it is likely that Steven Ridley is paying rent to sleep in head coach Bill Belichick’s dog house. He is getting ready to enter a contract year and that spells doom if he cannot get back into his coach’s good graces. Not a great combination if he wants to get a big payday in his second contract. Ridley has had some fumbling issues but he also has great size and speed and would benefit moving to a team in need of a running back. At this point he is part of a three headed running attack and appears to be the #3 guy. Ridley will be 25 heading into next season and still has a lot of tread on the tires.

23)  Lamar Miller – Miller was part of an off-season hype train that hit some high speeds, went out of control in the beginning of the season and derailed at mid-season. His numbers were affected by Daniel Thomas stealing goal line touches, but Miller did very little to take the job and “run” with it. At 23 heading into this season, Miller is still young and may be a nice buy low for fantasy owners.

24)  Ben Tate – Tate will be a big name if he hits free agency this season. With Foster on the mend it will be interesting to see how new Head Coach Bill O’Brien addresses the running back position. The former second round pick will be 26 heading into the season and should be a sought after free agent if he hits the market. An ideal situation may move him up this list.

25)  Andre Ellington – Ellington flashed talent in 2013. At 25 years of age heading into 2014 Ellington is limited by his head coach. Bruce Arians wants a split backfield and the lack of volume means less production for Ellington. His true value is in PPR leagues. As long as Mendenhall is in Arizona, Ellington will always play Robin to his Batman.

26)  Montee Ball – Ball has been getting more touches over the course of the season and looks to be next in line for the job in Denver. If Moreno hits free agency Ball gets an instant upgrade from this position. The former second round pick will be 23 heading into 2014 and his value is dependent on Moreno when the offseason begins.

27)  Marcus Lattimore – Lattimore suffered a devastating knee injury in college but had the entire 2013 season to do rehabilitation and get back onto the field. He was considered the top running back in the 2013 draft prior to his injury. At 22 heading into the 2014 season, Lattimore has a lot of years to produce for the Niners.

28)  Chris Johnson – At age 28, Chris Johnson is coming off his best season since 2010. He finished in the top ten in standard and PPR leagues. The addition of a new head coach Ken Whisenhunt paired with a disgruntled Johnson and recent speculation says Johnson could be cut by the Titans. He still has talent the question is, where will he be taking his talents if he gets cut?

29)  Bernard Pierce – Much like Ray Rice, the 23 year old Pierce had issues finding running lanes in 2013. His production took a hit and his value has dropped as a result. Pierce is a young and talented running back, but at this point his value is limited until the offense gets rolling again.

30)  Joique Bell – Bell had his best statistical season in 2013 backing up Reggie Bush. Bell is a talented running back, but is nearly the age as Reggie Bush. Bell will be 28 heading into the 2014 season, but he is a restricted free agent. His value hinges on his situation in 2014. If he is back in Detroit he has top 20 upside.

The consensus top 30 did not go without other players being named that did not make the cut. In the order that they missed the cut but were nominated by one of our writers (age in parenthesis):

David Wilson (23) – Wilson had neck surgery this week. His future lies in the hands of doctors at this point. Tough buy or sell at this point in dynasty leagues.

Darren McFadden (27) – It’s tricky to stay healthy, to make money in free agency, it’s tricky… tricky, tricky, tricky. Most likely a free agent in 2014. Hue Jackson loves Run DMC so what are the chances he ends up in Cincinnati?

Frank Gore (31) – Gore has one season left on his contract and Marcus Lattimore along with Kendall Hunter and waiting for their chance.

Andre Brown (27) – At this point he is the only healthy running back on the roster. Michael Cox appears to be his only competition. Look for the Giants to add depth in free agency or the draft unless they think Wilson plays again.

Bryce Brown (23) – Brown is in the right offense to make a splash, but with McCoy producing elite numbers, he isn’t much more than a backup.

Danny Woodhead (29) – Woodhead is a solid player to own in PPR leagues. Mathews seemed to take over the job by seasons end.

Mark Ingram (24) – Sean Payton enjoys using multiple running backs. Sproles, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas join Ingram in the backfield. He is a talented running back, but part of a cloudy situation.

Maurice Jones-Drew  (29)  – Free agency will determine Jones-Drew’s immediate value. He still has talent but the situation and his health will define his limited upside.

Did we leave someone off the list that you think should be on there? Let us know in the comments

brian bulmer
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