Over/Under: IDP Recap

Eric Olinger

watt

Earlier we looked back at our offensive player’s “Over/Under” projections and today we’ll look at the other side of the ball with our IDP sack specialists. Overall I was once again pleased with my projections. Some guys were on pace to exceed their projections before falling victim to injury and some guys just flat out stunk. Others exceeded expectations and guys I identified as breakout candidates came through. Let’s get to it and take a look back.

J.J. Watt, DE HOU
Line: 14.5 sacks
Actual: 10.5 sacks 

What I said: OVER.

Watt has a hunger only seen in the all-time greats. His ability to disrupt the game by any means necessary leads me to believe we will see him atop the sack leaders for years to come. I really like the fact he plays the Jaguars, Colts and Titans twice a year too. He’s the premier dominant defensive player in the NFL right now and nobody knows how to slow him down, let alone stop him.

What happened: The Texans implosion really limited his opportunities. Houston ended the season on a 14 game losing streak and rarely played with a lead over the second half of the season. 10.5 sacks for a 3-4 defensive end is still out of this world. At no point did Watt give less than 100% maximum effort. He played every down angry.

Verdict: Loser. 

Aldon Smith, OLB SF
Line: 15 sacks
Actual: 7.5 sacks

What I said: OVER.

With a healthy Justin Smith returning for another year, look for Aldon to pick up where he left off last season. I expect the forced fumbles to rise also. Another year under Vic Fangio can only help the talented youngster. It would be shocking if he wasn’t contending for the league lead in sacks in 2013.

What happened: Smith missed five games while attending an alcohol abuse treatment center after smashing his vehicle into a tree and getting a DUI. Defenses were paying him a ton more attention this year and it led to a huge season from bookend linebacker, Ahmad Brooks. Who knows what would have happened if he played the entire season? Regardless, I put my money on the over and the bookie is here to collect.

Verdict: Loser.

Von Miller, OLB DEN
Line: 8 sacks
Actual: 5 sacks

What I said: UNDER. First off, there is no guarantee he even returns after six games. He entered the league in the substance abuse program after failing a drug test at the combine. It’s hard to predict how players respond to adversity. Some people see the light and some people continue to be hard headed. Only time will tell with Miller. This year I wouldn’t expect him to approach double digit sacks.

What happened: Miller missed a total of seven games this season, six due to suspension and one to injury. He was a disruptive force when on the field and would have easily surpassed the projected line had he been available.

Verdict: Winner! 

Cameron Wake, DE MIA
Line: 13 sacks
Actual: 8.5 sacks

What I said: OVER. Simply put, playing the Bills, Jets, and even the Patriots twice excite me. Wake has been a so solid since returning from the CFL in 2009 and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle recently said he wouldn’t trade Wake for anyone in the league. That might not be true but I get what he’s saying. I expect him to continue to be the Dolphins’ featured pass rusher.

What happened: Wake may have been the Dolphins’ featured pass rusher but he was not the most productive. He was a weekly boom or bust play because he doesn’t get many tackles. Teammate Olivier Vernon was the IDP to own in 2013 while rookie Dion Jordan was nearly invisible. Not saying 8.5 sacks was a disappointment, but look for Wake to bounce back next year.

Verdict: Loser.

Clay Matthews, OLB GBP
Line: 12 sacks
Actual: 7.5 sacks 

What I said: OVER. As long as he plays Jay Cutler twice a year I will always take the over. A lot of time his sacks come in bunches and he might go a few games without recording any, but at the end of the season he always ends up around a dozen.

What happened: Matthews missed five games and was never in a position to approach our projected line.

Verdict: Loser.

Charles Johnson, DE CAR
Line: 12.5 sacks
Actual: 11 sacks

What I said: UNDER. Even though I expect the Panthers to be among the league leaders in team sacks this year, I believe it will be a collective group effort. Johnson should again flirt with a dozen or so sacks but I believe the attention he receives from offenses and the defense as a whole improving, he will have fewer opportunities.

What happened: The Panthers did indeed lead the league in sacks with 60 on the season. 16 different players recorded a sack on this team but only Johnson and Greg Hardy had more than four.

Verdict: Winner! 

Geno Atkins, DT CIN
Line: 10 sacks
Actual: Six sacks

What I said: OVER. Playing for a contract in 2013 he will have plenty of motivation. He’s a young, dedicated, talented player with rare ability. If he is able to repeat his 2012 numbers he will cash in as one of the highest paid defensive linemen in football, regardless if it’s in Cincinnati.

What happened: Atkins was a beast through nine games before going down with a torn ACL in his right knee. He was well on his way to hit double digit sacks.

Verdict: Loser.

Jared Allen, DE MIN
Line: 14 sacks
Actual: 12.5 sacks 

What I said: OVER. Some things (like Mark Sanchez’ headband) just can’t be explained, . Jared Allen’s ability to constantly get to the quarterback regardless of surrounding cast or situation is one of them. You would think double or triple teaming him would work but it doesn’t. I don’t know why but I can’t take the under here. I just can’t.

What happened: Allen had a five game stretch where he registered just half a sack. During that stretch he failed to capitalize against Dallas, Washington, and Green Bay’s (twice) sorry offensive lines. He was actually on the trade block leading up to the deadline and was nearly dealt to the Broncos, allegedly. He had a lofty expectation and nearly achieved it.

Verdict: Loser.

DeMarcus Ware, DE DAL
Line: 13 sacks
Actual: Six sacks

What I said: OVER. I can’t wait to see Ware in this defense. Playing across from Anthony Spencer will definitely help, even if the defensive tackles are going to be a work in progress. Kiffin will design ways to get Ware one on one opportunities and I have little doubt he’ll shine in this defense.

What happened: Ware had four sacks through the first three weeks of the season and everything was looking great. In week six he injured his quad muscle and never got his explosion back the rest of the season. This one really disappointed me. I expected a lot from him this year. He should have sat out a couple of games and got healthy.

Verdict: Loser.

Chris Long, DE STL
Line: 11 sacks
Actual: 8.5 Sacks 

What I said: UNDER. I’m not taking the under by much but I believe teammate Robert Quinn has become the team’s best pass rusher. Long and Quinn will both finish in the 10.5 to 13 sack range but I believe Long will be on the low end.

What happened: Robert Quinn happened. As I mentioned, Quinn took over as the team’s dominant pass rusher and Long moved into a complimentary role. The Rams as a team finished with 53 sacks, third in the league. These are the kind of stats we can expect from Long now.

Verdict: Winner!

Michael Johnson, DE CIN
Line: 10 sacks
Actual: 3.5 sacks 

What I said: UNDER. Money is a heck of a motivator but I need to see it more than once from Johnson before I consider him a lock for annual double digit sacks.

What happened: After being assigned the franchise tag in the 2013 offseason, he fell flat on his face. The Bengals were smart in making him prove 2012 wasn’t a fluke before forking over large amounts of cash. He’ll be playing elsewhere in 2014, possibly in Minnesota with Coach Zimmerman.

Verdict: Winner!

Julius Peppers, DE CHI
Line 10.5 sacks
Actual: 7.5 sacks 

What I said: UNDER. It’s hard to take the under her because he’s so trustworthy as a double digit sack guy. He should flirt with10-11 sacks this year but it wouldn’t shock me if this is the beginning of the end for Peppers.

What happened: My fears came true. Peppers and the entire Bears defense failed to generate much pass rush. Their 31 team sacks were tied with the Jaguars for dead last in the league. This defense was littered with injuries and was forced to play a lot of young players before they were ready.

Verdict: Winner! 

Chris Clemons, DE SEA
Line: 6 sacks
Actual: 4.5 sacks 

What I said: UNDER. You can call it the “Curse of Adrian Peterson”. Since he returned from a destroyed knee in eight months to have a historic season, everyone thinks they can too. I can’t see Clemons regaining the explosion needed to be a big factor this year.

What happened: Clemons only missed the first two games of the season while recovering from a torn ACL but played in a heavy rotation on the best team defense in the NFL. Six sacks was an attainable goal though but he fell just short.

Verdict: Winner!

Elvis Dumervil, OLB BAL
Line: 13 sacks
Actual: 9.5 sacks

What I said: OVER.  If a talent like Paul Kruger can register 8.5 sacks in this defense, I fully expect Dumervil to eclipse 13 for the season.

What happened: Dumervil had good, not great, first season in Baltimore but he should have been able to better capitalize playing across from Terrell Suggs. In hindsight, my expectations may have been a bit excessive. The biggest disappointment was his incredibly low tackle numbers.

Verdict: Loser.

Anthony Spencer, DE DAL
Line: 10 sacks
Actual: Zero sacks

What I said: OVER. I’m really looking forward to see Spencer as a defensive end. I always felt he was miscast as a linebacker. Coming out of Purdue I thought he had the potential to be special.

What happened: Spencer hurt his knee and played less than one game. He later had microfracture surgery and finished the season on injured reserve.

Verdict: Loser.

Greg Hardy, DE CAR
Line: 11 sacks
Actual: 15 sacks

What I said: OVER. Greg Hardy is my favorite candidate to have a huge breakout year in 2013. I expect him to flirt with 15+ sacks on this impressive defensive unit.

What happened: Exactly what I thought would happen. Hardy is one of the elite young defensive ends in this league, playing on one of the most aggressive units.

Verdict: Winner!

Mario Williams, DE BUF
Line: 11 sacks
Actual: 13 sacks

What I said: OVER. I’m only taking the over based on the assumption the Bills will play the majority of their snaps in the 4-3 this year. I don’t think they have the personnel to effectively make the transition this season.

What happened: Williams shot out of the gate with 11 sacks over the first eight games, including a 4.5 sack performance against Cam Newton in week two. He should have challenged for the sack title but only registered two over the second half the season.

Verdict: Winner!

Robert Quinn, DE STL
Line: 12 sacks
Actual: 19 sacks

What I said: OVER. Along with Hardy, Quinn is another young defensive end ready to take the step into superstardom. A dozen sacks won’t be easy but I would be shocked if he didn’t approach 15 for the season.

What happened: Both of my breakout candidates, Hardy and Quinn, paid off in 2013. Quinn didn’t just take a step into superstardom, he kicked the door down. There is a real good chance he ends up as the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Verdict: Winner!

John Abraham, OLB ARZ
Line: 9 sacks
Actual: 11.5 sacks

What I said: UNDER. I believe the switch to a 3-4 defense will be the least of his issues. Playing on the Cardinals defense without a complementary pass rusher will prove to be the biggest hurdle for the aging vet. He no longer has the ability to take a game over.

What happened: The Cardinals were smart with his playing time and the old man found the fountain of youth for one more season. All 11.5 sacks were registered from week seven to week 15 so the opportunity was there to put up a truly special campaign.

Verdict: Loser!

Justin Houston, OLB KCC
Line: 10 sacks
Actual: 11 sacks

What I said: OVER. I think it will be close but Houston and Hali have both shown elite pass rushing skills and with an elite secondary giving them time to get to the passer, the odds are in his favor. I would expect Hali and Houston to combine for 25 sacks.

What happened: I called this pretty accurately. Houston and Hali each recorded 11 sacks on the season for the surprising Chiefs. With Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles allowing their team to play with a lead, the defense was able to pin their ears back and get nasty. Houston and Hali should be able to do this for the next few years.

Verdict: Winner!

There you have it. I really enjoyed the IDP Over/Under article. Feel free to leave any comments below on how I did or what you think the future holds for these players.

eric olinger
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