The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

steven_jackson

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my 16-team PPR league, I’m looking to set up a trade to upgrade my running back and/or receiver situation. I want to get younger as the core of my team is solid. I’m looking to deal Jordan Cameron (I have Jimmy Graham), along with older players like Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Miles Austin. What sort of package should I be putting together to get more talented youth?Josh in WI

While I can understand your general sentiment of wanting to get younger, I think you’re going to have a tough go of it right now.  Unfortunately, when the fantasy season ends so too does the nostalgia of what these older players were able to bring to our team.  In fact, just consider the current ADP’s (c/o @RyanMc23) of the veterans with whom you’re looking to part:

Name

ADP

Round

Larry Fitzgerald

37.7

4

Andre Johnson

53.0

5

Maurice Jones-Drew

110.7

10

Steven Jackson

145.0

13

DeAngelo Williams

178.8

15

Miles Austin

210.2

18

*Data based on a 12-team league

While the ADP data shouldn’t be directly correlated to trade values, it does provide us with a general insight as to how players are valued relative to one another.  Right now when the main desire in dynasty is to unearth the next Josh Gordon, it’s safe to say the relative values of older players are in the pits.  Jones-Drew, Jackson, Williams and Austin are considered virtually worthless, and even Johnson’s fifth round ADP isn’t remotely commensurate with his 2013 finish as the PPR WR10.  Fitzgerald’s ADP shows that many in the dynasty community still view him as an asset, but he’s the only one in the group who is valued correctly relative to his 2013 production.

Given that, if these are the players you’re looking to trade, I think you might want to wait a bit longer.  If/when MJD finds a new team, that’s the time to strike.  If the Texans draft a quarterback with the number-one pick, expect excitement to build for Johnson.  Williams could benefit from a change of scenery, and Jackson’s value has likely flat-lined until the 2014 season begins.  To me, patience is going to be the key with your grand design.

However, if you wanted to test the waters right now, I’d pair Browns’ tight end Jordan Cameron (ADP = 51.0, Round 5) with Fitzgerald and try to sell to a tight end needy team.  While Cameron proved to be a viable PPR TE1, it’s worth questioning if the losses of coaches Rob Chudzinski and Norval Turner will negatively impact that stature.  I’d target the owners of players like Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd and Cordarrelle Patterson – it will be tough to pry them away, but such is life in dynasty football’s “silly season.”

2. In a 12-team, 1QB league, what’s the dynasty value of Ryan Mallett right now?  He will be a free agent after next season, and the question on him has always been above the shoulders. Spending a couple years with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick could do wonders for someone like him.  Does he seem like a good buy low candidate?Barry in WI

One of the biggest paradigm shifts in recent dynasty strategizing has been the rise of the receiver.  However, a secondary plotline has involved what is undoubtedly the most important real life position – quarterbacks.  Simply put, there are just too many quality signal callers right now, and this has driven the overall value of the position way down.

In fact, let’s consider the 2013 quarterback rankings.  Even if we remove the two statistical outliers (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees), a whopping sixteen more signal callers averaged between 20.0 and 23.6 fantasy points per game – amazingly enough that doesn’t even include the Patriots’ Tom Brady, whose “down year” of 19.9 points per game saw him just miss the grouping above.  Suffice it to say, in a 12-team format, the supply is overflowing and the demand is virtually non-existent.

Ultimately this is just a long-winded way of saying that New England backup Ryan Mallett is basically a man without a country in smaller league settings.  In order to gain any type of value he’ll likely need to find a different team, and that might not happen until 2015.  During that time the arrivals of rookies like Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles and Derek Carr could dilute positional pool even further.

So while Mallett could eventually become a viable starter, I have a tough time viewing him as anything other than waiver wire fodder unless your league has over 300 players rostered.  On the other hand, if you’re looking to acquire him, his value could be at an all-time low during your league’s rookie draft.  Regardless, analogous to the question above this will be an exercise in patience – Mallett probably won’t make good on your potential investment anytime soon.

3. With a number of rookie picks this year (including three first rounders), I am faced with a decision about some of my older and/or fringe players on my roster. As I will likely only be able to keep one or two, can you rank the following players in terms of dynasty value – Eli Manning, Daryl Richardson, Jarrett Boykin, Shonn Greene, Jeremy Kerley and Jermaine Gresham?Vince from Parts Unknown

I’m not going to mince words here – Eli Manning, Daryl Richardson and Jermaine Gresham are borderline droppable players.  All suffer due to a combination of uninspiring play and positional depth, and more than likely won’t help you win games anytime soon.  As a general rule, if you question whether an established player will ever crack your startling lineup, you’re more than likely better-suited rostering a player with higher upside.

This leaves the trio of Jarrett Boykin, Shonn Greene and Jeremy Kerley.  Starting with Boykin, he absolutely deserves a place on your roster.  Given the potential departure of fellow receiver James Jones, as well as the uncertainty at the tight end position, Boykin stands primed to crack the top three in Green Bay’s receiving pecking order.  In an Aaron Rodgers led offense, that could be a recipe for fantasy sustainability.

Next, I’d make a strong case for Jeremy Kerley’s inclusion on your bench.  When healthy he was Geno Smith’s favorite target, and given Santonio Holmes’ injury issues Kerley has actually functioned as the Jets’ top pass catcher dating back to last year.  Only a soon to be fourth year player, I don’t see any logical reason why Kerley can’t continue to get better on an improving offense.

Lastly we have Titans’ running back Shonn Greene.  As we all know by now there is absolutely nothing special about Greene’s game, but with the looming departure of backfield mate Chris Johnson he could find himself on the plus side of a 2014 timeshare.  In a short-term window situation can sometimes trump talent (see:  Green-Ellis, BenJarvus), and if you’re hurting for running back depth you could certainly do a lot worse.

4. In my 12-team half-PPR league, we have three combined WR/TE spots, which heavily devalues any tight end not named Jimmy Graham. Since this means it’ll mostly be receivers starting, are there any starter-worthy tight ends who have the potential to be acquired cheaply? – Mike in FL

In a half-PPR league the ability to score touchdowns becomes significantly more important.  Players who possess a greater affinity for collecting both targets and scores in the red zone should therefore see a bump in value.  In terms of tight ends, I think three players fit the bill here and could be acquired for a lower cost than their talents would otherwise suggest.

The first player in an obvious name – Patriots’ star Rob Gronkowski.  No, he certainly won’t come cheap, but when the name of the game is maximizing your lineup it’s all relative.  Gronkowski’s current ADP of 17.5 has him pegged as a mid-second round pick, a full ten spots behind Saints star Jimmy Graham – in my opinion, given Gronk’s historic proclivity at scoring, he’d be a first-round selection if healthy.  If you can snag him for 90 cents on the dollar I wouldn’t hesitate to do so.

The next player I’d target is impending free agent Dennis Pitta.  In his four games back following a nasty preseason hip injury, Pitta sported a weekly average of 5/42/0.25 while only playing approximately half of the offensive snaps.  For his career he averages a touchdown on every 17 targets, and will likely be back in Baltimore (via a new deal or the franchise tag) to continue his bromance with quarterback Joe Flacco.  Given the “out of sight, out of mind” state of injuries, Pitta could likely be had for cheaper than his skillset warrants.

Finally, perhaps one of the best buy-lows in dynasty is Vikings’ tight end Kyle Rudolph.  Prior to a season-ending foot injury Rudolph was on his way to a career year, and is one of the better scorers at the position (one out of every 7.3 career receptions is a touchdown).  More importantly, Jordan Cameron’s loss could be Rudolph’s gain, as new offensive coordinator Norval Turner knows how to get the most out of the position.  With improved quarterback play, Rudolph could be one of the sneakiest bets for statistical enhancement, and potentially a starter on your roster.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter