Over/Under: The Results, Part One
This past off-season, we ran a weekly “Over/Under” series and today we’re going to look back at the offensive players and see how I did. One thing I noticed after looking back at these was I was pretty accurate at predicting some of the lines, but was ever so slightly on the wrong side of the over/under prediction on one or more of the criteria. It was still a lot of fun. We can take this time to review these performances and also to talk about their future in the comments section. You’ll see both my original prediction and what I predicted “on second thought” right before the season started.
On to the recaps!
Rashard Mendenhall, RB ARI
Original Line: 1,050 yards rushing and 8.5 touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on yardage and under on touchdowns.
On second thought: I’ll take the under on both. The Cardinals are going to throw the ball a ton.
Season stats: 15 games, 687 yards rushing, 3.2 YPC, eight touchdowns, 18 receptions, 134 yards, no touchdowns.
Even though he wasn’t close to the yardage line, he almost hit the touchdown total. Mendenhall struggled mightily behind the worst line in the NFL, failing to hit holes or break big runs. On the other hand, rookie Andre Ellington was able to make the most of his 118 carries to the tune of 5.5 yards per carry.
Verdict: WINNER!
Reggie Bush, RB DET
Original Line: 65 catches, 1,400 total yards, and seven touchdowns
Original and on second thought: I’m going to take “way over” on catches, over on yardage and over on touchdowns. The chemistry with Matthew Stafford has been so much better than I expected. In PPR leagues he is going to end up being a beast every week.
Season stats: 14 games, 1006 yards rushing, 4.5 YPC, four touchdowns, 54 receptions, 506 yards, three touchdowns.
Reggie Bush was everything we thought he would be during his first year in the Motor City. He was explosive, productive and slightly fragile. He exceeded the total yardage projections, met the touchdown total and fell just short on the receptions. He missed two games and shared the load with Joique Bell all season long who chipped in nearly 1200 total yards and eight touchdowns himself.
Verdict: Push.
Arian Foster, RB HOU
Original Line: 1,500 total yards and 12.5 total touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on both lines.
On second thought: I’m very comfortably taking the over on both lines. His price has dropped to the point he has become one of, if not, the greatest value in fantasy leagues. The fact he is currently has an ADP of 10.83 is ludicrous.
Season stats: seven games, 542 yards rushing, 4.5 YPC, one touchdown, 22 receptions, 183 yards, one touchdown.
For all the nonsense Arian Foster took going into the season, he was really heating up before going down with a back injury and finishing the year on injured reserve. Even though his touchdown totals were down, his yards per carry average was highest in three years. It’s not like the Texans had their stuff together this year. They lost the final 14 games of the season, cleaned house, and have the first pick in the upcoming draft. Look for Foster to bounce back next year.
Verdict: Loser.
Alfred Morris, RB WAS
Original Line: 1,300 yards rushing and 9.5 touchdowns
Originally, I took the under on yards and over on touchdowns.
On second thought: I am going to take the over on both. With RG3 ready to roll for week one, look for Morris to pick up where he left off in 2012. Helu will have a role on this team but won’t deter Morris from being a beast like RB1.
Season stats: 16 games, 1,275 yards rushing, seven touchdowns, nine receptions, 78 yards, no touchdowns.
As dysfunctional and confusing as the Redskins offense was in 2013, Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon were the only two players we could count on in fantasy land. Even though Morris fell just short on both betting lines, this season should definitely be considered a success.
Verdict: Loser.
Sam Bradford, QB STL
Original Line: 4,200 yards passing and 30 touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on both yards and touchdowns.
On second thought: I’m still going to take the over on both. The lack of a proven running game will force Bradford to throw early and often. As the season progresses look for Austin to become a more integral piece on offense.
Season stats: seven games, 1687 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions.
Before going down with a torn ACL, he was on pace for 3856 yards passing, 32 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Not too bad considering the youth infusion at wide receiver and the rebuild in the running corp.
Verdict: Loser.
Tom Brady, QB NE
Original Line: 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns
Originally, I took the under on both… and I’m sorry.
On second thought: That was stupid. Brady has a hunger like so many of the all-time greats which drives him to succeed. His ability to make everyone around him better is phenomenal. He will be able to take this mix and match offense and produce the Brady-like numbers we’re all used to.
Season stats: 16 games, 4,343 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
Everything was there except the touchdowns. Brady hit a very un-Brady like four game stretch from week five through week eight where we saw him throw a grand total of two touchdowns and four interceptions. The young wide receivers and Brady were not on the same page and it was this stretch which held Brady back from making our betting line. All things considered, this season may very well have been his greatest but none the less…
Verdict: Loser.
Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
Original Line: 1,492 yards and 12.5 touchdowns
Originally, I took the under on yards and over on touchdowns.
On second thought: I’m sticking to it. If Barry Sanders couldn’t do it, can anyone?
Season stats: 14 games, 1,266 yards rushing, ten touchdowns, 29 receptions, 171 receiving yards, one touchdown.
You definitely can’t call Peterson’s season a disappointment. He was still a dominant RB1 but history showed, and continues to show, running backs coming off a 2,000 yard season fail to break the 1,500 yard mark the following season. Missing two games bit me on the touchdown total.
Verdict: Loser.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
Original Line: 85 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 8.5 touchdowns.
Originally, I took the over on all three lines.
On second thought: I’m still taking the over on all three lines. Palmer isn’t what he once was but he might be the perfect passer for Bruce Arians offense because of his ability to effectively perform under pressure.
Season stats: 16 games, 82 receptions, 954 yards receiving, ten touchdowns
Fitz had a very nice bounce back season in Arians’ offense. He scored double digit touchdowns for the first time in four years but failed to break the 1000 yard mark for the second time in as many years. The emergence of Michael Floyd helped draw attention away from defenses and Carson Palmer. My yardage total might have been a bit optimistic.
Verdict: Loser
How do you feel about these players as we move forward? What would you put their lines at for next season? Let me know in the comments section and stay tuned for part two of the review series.
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six - October 16, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
