The Dynasty Doctor: IR Stashes

Twitter is a great medium for exchanging ideas for all things fantasy football, and Eric Dickens (@DLFootball) received an article request from “Kevin” on IR stashes in dynasty leagues. This is an excellent topic to cover as we end the 2013 season, and look forward to improving our beloved dynasty teams for 2014 and beyond.

The 2013 season was a tough one for injuries with notable players like Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski, Reggie Wayne, Cecil Shorts, Jeremy Maclin, David Wilson and Doug Martin sustained major injuries, ending the year on injured reserve. DLF users don’t need to be told players of that caliber are worthy of roster spots. However, what about those players who might be on the roster bubble, or even available on waiver wires in dynasty leagues? I reviewed the injured reserve list for each team and selected a few players who might be worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues. We can’t count on these players to help us in 2014, but there is enough potential to keep them on rosters and hope for production that exceeds their current value.

QUARTERBACK

Brian Hoyer, CLE

Hoyer isn’t exactly the most inspiring choice for dynasty teams. He is 28 years old, has a total of 192 pass attempts in the past five years and just eight touchdowns in his entire career. Hoyer got his shot for the Browns this year in week three and posted solid numbers against the Minnesota Vikings (30 completions, 321 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions). Hoyer followed up with 269 yards and two touchdowns the following week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in his third start, shutting him down for the year. Why would a dynasty owner want to stash Hoyer? Cleveland has a quagmire at quarterback right now and it isn’t a stretch to say Hoyer has a shot to overtake Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell. Hoyer could be throwing to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron. In dynasty leagues with deep rosters, stashing Hoyer has some merit.

RUNNING BACK

Ahmad Bradshaw, IND

Bradshaw is a train wreck when it comes to injuries. He has multiple foot injuries and suffered a neck injury that derailed his 2013 season. It is surprising that, despite all of his injuries, he has only missed 12 games before 2013. Bradshaw has been sneaky productive, finishing PPR scoring as the RB10 in 2010, RB19 in 2011 and RB20 in 2012. Why should anyone want to grab him? He is still relatively young at 27 years old, and has a relatively low 1,101 touches in his seven year career. Bradshaw will be a free agent in 2014 and stands a good chance of getting signed by an NFL team. He is likely available in many leagues on waivers and is worth a speculative add. If he is healthy, he can give dynasty owners solid production for no cost.

Vick Ballard, IND

Ballard began the season as the starting running back for the Colts, but tore his ACL game one and was lost for the season. Ballard is a solid, but unspectacular player. He managed 814 yards for 3.9 yards per carry as a rookie and had a nice start to the 2013 season with 13 carries for 63 yards. Donald Brown has looked rejuvenated this season and will be a free agent in 2014. Whether or not the Colts sign Brown long-term remains to be seen. Trent Richardson has been a disappointment. Richardson will certainly get every opportunity to be the starter next season, but if he fails, and Brown leaves the Colts, Ballard could slide into the starting spot. It’s a gamble, but costs nothing if he can be plucked from the waiver wire.

Mike James, TB

James burst onto the scene after Doug Martin was placed on injured reserve with a torn labrum in his shoulder. James had a solid game against a tough Carolina defense (39 yards rushing, four receptions for 25 yards), then had a dominant game on the road against a fierce Seattle Seahawks defense (28 carries, 158 yards, two receptions for eight yards). James isn’t a burner as he most recently posted a pedestrian 4.50 40 yard dash. Still, he has good size and is a solid all-around player. He may not be a star, but he could provide sneaky production if he gets a shot with Tampa Bay or another team. The fractured fibula shouldn’t adversely impact James’ value long-term.

Latavius Murray, OAK

Chances are, Murray is probably not on waiver wires in most dynasty leagues. Still, if he is, grab him now, or send out trade offers. Murray had all of eight carries for 29 yards before leaving the first game of preseason with an ankle injury. He ended up having arthroscopic surgery and landed on IR. Murray spent his college days at Central Florida, and had an impressive showing at his Pro Day. He ran a 4.38 40 yard dash, had 22 bench press reps, and a 3-Cone Drill of 6.81. If Murray put up those numbers at the NFL Combine, he would have finished third in both the 40 yard dash and 3-Cone Drill. Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings are both free agents, and it’s conceivable that Murray could end up starting for the Raiders in 2014. If Murray can be acquired on the cheap, send out those offers.

Dion Lewis, CLE

Lewis isn’t the best stash, but there are reasons to consider him if you have one last roster spot to fill. Lewis had a prolific college career at University of Pittsburgh, rushing for over 2,800 yards and scoring 30 touchdowns in two years. His NFL Combine numbers were disappointing, as he ran a 4.56 40 yard dash, but he showed well in the 3-Cone drill (6.90) and 20-Yard Shuttle (4.18). He was taken in the fifth round of the 2011 NFL draft by the Philadelphia Eagles and traded to the Browns last year. Norv Turner compared him to Darren Sproles and he was having a solid training camp before he broke his fibula in a pre-season game against the Detroit Lions. The fractured fibula isn’t a concern and he should be back for the 2014 season. There isn’t much competition in front of him, and he could make some noise. I don’t think Lewis has much trade value but if he is available as a free agent, he’s worth a pick-up if a free roster spot is available.

WIDE RECEIVER

Ryan Broyles, DET 

There is great skepticism on Broyles future in the NFL and it is definitely warranted. Broyles has sustained three major injuries in his career, with two ACL ruptures and a ruptured Achilles tendon in 2013. Broyles has the character and talent to be a top dynasty prospect. Unfortunately, he can’t stay healthy. Broyles was incredibly productive at Oklahoma, tallying 349 receptions, 4,586 yards receiving and 45 touchdowns. He contributed as a returner on special teams. He was picked in round two of the 2012 draft by the Lions, and flashed his talent that year (22 receptions, 310 yards and two touchdowns). The Lions still lack a solid wide receiver behind Calvin Johnson. Achilles tendon ruptures are still a great concern, but hopefully Broyles will turn out more like Michael Crabtree and not Mikel Leshoure. Broyles has the character to succeed in rehabilitation. I don’t think Broyles has any trade value right now, but he is likely available on waivers, and I think he is worth a speculative add just in case his rehabilitation goes better than expected.

Joe Morgan, NO

I’m not that high on Morgan, but some attention is deserved for any receiver in the New Orleans offense and Morgan did have an unbelievable 379 yards on just ten receptions in 2012. Marques Colston is getting older, Nick Toon failed to impress and Lance Moore had a big drop in production compared to 2012. The Saints will need to break the bank to re-sign Jimmy Graham and major changes at receiver could be coming. Sproles will be 31 next year and his numbers continue to drop since his big year in 2011. Morgan might get a shot and could surprise next year.

TIGHT END

Dwayne Allen, IND

Allen was a highly regarded tight end out of Clemson, taken in the third round of the 2011 draft by the Indianapolis Colts. He received the 2011 John Mackey Award as the most outstanding tight end in college football.  He was rated the second-best tight end in 2012 by Pro Football Focus, behind only Rob Gronkowski. In terms of fantasy points, he was more of a low-end TE2 in 2012, finishing as the TE24 in PPR leagues. Expectations were high coming into 2013. Unfortunately, Allen sustained a hip injury on opening day and was done for the year. His only reception resulted in a 20 yard touchdown and hopefully that is a good sign for his future. Certainly, Allen has the talent to succeed in the NFL, and having Andrew Luck as his quarterback gives him a shot to reach his potential. Coby Fleener hasn’t run away with the starting spot, finishing as the TE14 in PPR leagues this year. Fleener had just four touchdowns on the year and a catch percentage of only 62%, good for third worst in the top 20 tight ends for 2013. Fleener was ranked as the 2013 TE22 by Pro Football Focus, showing poor run blocking, and Allen performed better both as a receiver and a blocker in 2012. Fleener had the opportunity, as he received 84 of 105 total targets to all tight ends on the Colts this year, and his closest competition was Weslye Saunders with eight targets. The exact nature of Allen’s hip injury is not clear, but recovery time was estimated as six months. If true, he should be recovered in time for training camp. Allen is a strong hold for those who own him, and an excellent target to acquire at a discount now.

Travis Kelce, KC

Kelce generated significant interest in rookie drafts last year and he was regarded by many draft enthusiasts as the second-best rookie at tight end in the class of 2012, behind only Tyler Eifert. Kelce is noted as a strong blocker and he showed improvement in the passing game in 2012 at University of Cincinnati, with 45 receptions for 722 yards and eight touchdowns. He shined in his last game as a Bearcat, snagging five receptions for 123 yards and one touchdown, including an 83 yard score that helped his team beat Duke in the Belk Bowl. Kelce was drafted in the third round by the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, he was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury, and required microfracture surgery for it. Microfracture surgery is never good news, but athletes can recover well and return to play. Success rates are 75-100% in the first two years after surgery. Arthritis can occur long-term, usually 5-10 years later, but successful recoveries are still possible beyond two years post-surgery (67-86%). Failure rates after microfracture surgery are just 2.5% in the first two years, but can rise to 30% beyond two years. Kelce has a reasonable chance to return from his injury. Kelce doesn’t have much competition right now, and if he returns healthy in 2014, he has a good shot at overtaking career journeyman Anthony Fasano and Sean McGrath. I’ve heard Kelce has been available on waivers in some dynasty leagues and if he is available in your league, grab him now. I would also target Kelce as a buy low for 2014. Given Kelce’s rookie ADP was late second to high third round pre-injury, his price should be much lower now. Grab him now and stash him for next season.

IDP

Tank Carradine, SF

Carradine was drafted out of Florida State University by the Forty Niners in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft. He didn’t play a down this season, recovering from a torn ACL sustained in college. Carradine had 80 total tackles, 47 solo tackles and 11 sacks in his final year with the Seminoles. Justin Smith is signed through 2015, but he is 34 years old, and Carradine might get his chance if Smith retires or is released. He should be ready to go for the 2014 season, and is worth grabbing from waivers if an impatient owner dropped him.