The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. What is your opinion of Christine Michael going into 2014? I have a chance to acquire him and liked him going into the draft this season. – Dave in IN
From my experiences talking with others about Seahawks running back Christine Michael, one thing is clear – it’s borderline impossible to have a wishy-washy opinion about the guy. Indeed, between those who have him rated as a surefire future RB1 and others who won’t touch the guy with a 10-foot pole due to his price, the young ball carrier is already one of dynasty’s most divisive players. Put metaphorically, if Michael’s dynasty potential is a fence, no one is sitting on it!
Starting with the positive side of things, it’s not hard to see why many are enamored with the guy. He finished his collegiate career with a 5.3 yards-per-carry average while also exhibiting a nose for the end zone (34 touchdowns across 529 college carries). From there, he blew up the 2013 NFL Combine with one of the better performances in recent memory, including finishes ranking at or above the 92nd percentile in the following events: 20-yard shuttle, three-cone drill, broad jump, vertical jump and bench press. The combination of his college play and physical attributes led to Michael being drafted in the second round by a GM we trust (John Schneider) as the fifth ball carrier selected.
However, according to other dynasty owners the good news ends there. First and foremost, Michael has seen nothing but garbage time involvement this year, appearing in only four games and recording a mere 18 carries. He’s, if only temporarily, stuck behind starter (and legit NFL star) Marshawn Lynch (owed a reasonable $5.5 million in 2014) and sophomore backup Robert Turbin, and he might not see the figurative light of day until 2015 at the earliest.
Continuing, despite his physical attributes Michael’s college production was far from distinguished as he never topped 899 rushing yards and hardly functioned in the passing game. While proponents point to injuries and clashes with the coaching staff for those shortcomings, DLF’s own Jeff Beran did some data mining into the risk factor associated with limited college production – the results were startling. According to Jeff (@jefeberan), “in the last five seasons 37 NFL players have rushed for 1,000+ yards, but only two of those never rushed for 1,000+ in college – Frank Gore and Peyton Hillis.” While no one piece of statistical evidence can serve as a definitive qualifier, recent history appears to be against the young Seattle runner.
Given the totality of the risk relative to his price tag, rostering Michael has become a distinct cost-benefit analysis. On one hand, patient owners could reap the rewards of top-flight production if they’re willing to wait. Conversely, if Michael fails to fulfill the expectations placed upon him, a prime opportunity to sell high will have vanished into the fantasy ether.
For my part, I’d be more inclined to “zig” while others “zag.” Michael isn’t likely to help you out until 2015 at the earliest, and even then there are no guarantees. If you own him it’s worth considering selling “high,” as odd as that sounds – the ability to receive a relative bounty for a player with no proven NFL chops doesn’t come along very often. If you’re looking to buy as Dave is, my best advice it to make sure you’re convicted – he won’t come cheap.
2. After a good season that led to a super bowl victory in my non-PPR league I have to make a tough choice – should I keep Zac Stacy or CJ Spiller? Will Spiller ever truly live up to expectations or should I hold on to the young pile driver? – Wade in OR
The part of this question that interests me most is the thought about Bills running back CJ Spiller living up to our expectations for him. For those who forget, Spiller was the toast of the 2013 off-season as the promise of an increased workload courtesy of new head coach Doug Marrone foretold an almost certain ascension to the ranks of dynasty’s elite. As we all know, however, things don’t always go as we plan.
Spiller wound up injuring his ankle early in the season and never seemed to shake the lingering effects. Subsequently, the efficiency that led to a finish as the 2012 non-PPR RB7 (on just 15.6 touches per game) dropped precipitously, and Spiller finished the year as the RB27. Adding insult to (literal and metaphorical) injury, backfield mate and ageless wonder Fred Jackson put together his first healthy campaign in the past three seasons, ultimately finishing as the RB11. It was truly a lost season for the former first round draft pick.
With that said, much like I did last week when discussing Knowshon Moreno’s future, I’m going to break from the narrative once again. If 4.6 yards-per-carry (Spiller’s 2013 average) constitute a “down year,” sign me up. Spiller wasn’t as dynamic in the passing game as he was previously (just 5.6 yards-per-catch) and he hardly scored (two total touchdowns), but it’s not as if he simply lost his talent.
As such, he’d be my choice for your final keeper. Though he’ll turn 27 before the 2014 season begins, he only has 728 career touches to his name and should have several good seasons remaining. I like the Rams’ Zac Stacy and believe he has a solid future as a volume-back and goal line specialist, but believe he lacks the big play ability Spiller offers. When healthy, Spiller’s upside is nearly unrivaled.
3. In my 10-man PPR league we’re only allowed two keepers per team. I’m keeping Josh Gordon as he will only cost a tenth rounder this upcoming year and now have to decide between Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy and Julius Thomas – all three guys will cost a 7th round pick this upcoming season. We start two running backs, two receivers, one tight end and a FLEX. – Big Perm in NY
Since I spoke briefly about Stacy in the last question, I’ll start by expanding upon his roster candidacy. While I mentioned he might not be the most dynamic of ball carriers, he’s also a player who will rarely (if ever) torpedo your weekly chances. In fact, since his coming out party against Jacksonville in week five Stacy never scored fewer than 7.8 PPR points and had at least 68 total yards in all but two games. Adding on his proclivity for scoring touchdowns (eight total in the 12 games he received double-digit touches), he couples a PPR RB2 floor with a RB1’s workload and would be a fine keeper selection.
Chargers’ rookie receiver Keenan Allen is another worthy keeper candidate. He was easily the most productive freshman wideout, equaling or bettering AJ Green’s sublime 2011 rookie campaign in nearly every statistic. Much like Stacy it took him a few weeks to really get started, but Allen eventually emerged as quarterback Philip Rivers’ favorite target and finished the season as the PPR WR18. He has the looks of a future WR1 for years to come.
Finally, the string of unexpected breakouts ends with Broncos tight end Julius Thomas. “Orange Julius” went largely ignored by the vast majority of fantasy enthusiasts (with the exception of DLF soothsayer Steve Wyremski), but he announced himself in the very first game of the year as he tallied five receptions for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas never really let up, finishing the year as the PPR TE2 despite missing two games and contending with the Broncos’ bevy of receiving studs on a weekly basis. Though it’s fair to wonder how much of his value is tied to the presence of quarterback Peyton Manning, Thomas looks primed to remain amongst the ranks of the elite at the tight end position.
Ultimately though, situation trumps upside in smaller keeper formats. Unless you have a collection of elite talent, I’d choose to strategize around what basically amounts to a re-draft mentality – keep the guys who can help you right now. While all three players afford that luxury, your roster requirements cause me to lean towards Stacy.
Every week a minimum of 20 ball carriers will be thrust into starting lineups, with a possibility for even more given the inclusion of a FLEX position. It’s more than likely the top options at the position won’t make it to the dispersal draft, so I believe it’s imperative you enter the off-season with at least one serviceable option. It hurts to lose Allen and Thomas, but the receiver and tight end positions are relatively deep – I think Stacy’s your man.
4. Ray Rice has said he’s going to contemplate retirement at 30, which given the tread left on the tires I can’t say I blame him. That being said, he turns 27 this off-season; should I seriously be considering offloading him if he can string together a decent season in 2014? It’s better to sell high early than after he’s washed up right? – Travis in IL
If CJ Spiller’s 2013 season was a disappointment, Ravens running back Ray Rice’s was an absolute embarrassment. Following a strong 2012 campaign where the veteran ball carrier compiled 1,621 total yards and ten touchdowns, Rice failed to break 1,000 total yards for the first time since his rookie season. The veritable iron man also missed his first game due to injury since 2008 – in short it was a season to forget.
In my opinion though there were several mitigating factors to Rice’s subpar performance. First and foremost was the hip injury he suffered in a week two tilt with the Browns. The injury obviously continued to bother Rice, and he even admitted such in a mid-season interview. With his lateral agility compromised Rice effectively morphed into a poor man’s Michael Turner.
Next, Baltimore’s supporting cast failed to, well, support! The loss of star tight end Dennis Pitta illuminated the Ravens’ glaring deficiency of skill position players, and with Torrey Smith functioning as the only legitimate threat in the passing game, Baltimore’s offense became easy to defend. Adding quarterback Joe Flacco’s regression to the mix and the offensive unit barely resembled the squad who won the whole thing in 2012.
Last but not least was the play of the aptly titled “offensive” line. Neither Rice (3.1 yards-per-carry) nor backup Bernard Pierce (2.9 yards-per-carry) was able to find running lanes on a consistent basis, and as a team Baltimore rushed for a putrid 83.0 yards per game, “good” for 30th in the league. In summation, this wasn’t so much a Ray Rice problem as it was a Baltimore problem.
Given the aggregate of the above I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a bounce-back 2014 campaign. Even if he continues to cede touches to the younger Pierce it’s more than likely Rice will remain the lead back in the committee. Better days are ahead.
Nevertheless, as with every aging running back, the end is definitively in sight for Rice. So while it doesn’t make sense to sell him now at his lowest point, it’s more than reasonable to contemplate a future move. But with over a year until that point I think you just need to play the cards you’re dealt – come 2015 you might be wondering how you ever questioned Rice at all!
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