Will Doug Martin Bounce Back?

I’m not going to bury the lead here – I believe Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin is one of the most skilled and well-rounded running backs in the league and I’m not questioning his talent.  Instead, it’s his future usage that has me wondering about his potential RB1 viability.  As we all know by now, recently fired head coach and noted run-game enthusiast Greg Schiano was unquestionably committed to Martin as the focal point of his offense, almost literally to the point of ignoring all other rostered ball carriers.  In fact, just consider Martin’s career per-game averages before he suffered a season ending shoulder injury six games into the 2013 season:

Over the past couple years, only a handful of running backs in the league can boast the ability to turn 23 touches into 110 yards on a weekly basis, and the loss of this relative bounty could be crippling to Martin’s fantasy outlook.  With that said, it’s not as if we’re flying blind here – after inking defensive-minded head coach Lovie Smith to a deal, it was announced former University of California coach Jeff Tedford would be tasked with coordinating the offense.  Fortunately for us, as Tedford was a head coach at the collegiate level from 2002 through 2012 we have a vast array of data at our disposal that can be used in an attempt to predict the future.

Prior Collegiate Data

As ESPN’s yearly data only goes back through the 2004-05 season, this analysis will cover those years.  The following table shows how Tedford has utilized his top two running backs during that time:

On a qualitative level, the first thing of note is how many quality running backs Tedford oversaw during his stint as a Golden Bear.  Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch is an NFL star, and the Patriots’ Shane Vereen could very well be on his way there.  Former Detroit Lion Jahvid Best was a borderline PPR RB1 before concussions derailed his career.  Justin Forsett has been a quality NFL backup, CJ Anderson is a promising stash in Denver and even JJ Arrington spent a few years in Arizona as a change-of-pace runner.  So to summarize, with six current or former NFL ball carriers on his resume, it’s safe to say Tedford is no stranger to getting the most out of the position.

Getting back to Martin, it’s important to see Tedford’s preferences for the utilization of the position.  As you can be gleaned from the table above, when he has a stud ball carrier he normally sticks with him.  In 2004, Arrington received four out of every five carries, and over the next two years Lynch got 62.5% of the carries (between he and Forsett) despite missing three games over that time.  As a senior, Forsett received a mind-boggling 91.3% of the carries, and both Vereen and Sofele nearly replicated the feat in 2010 and 2011 respectively.  In fact, the only years where the RB1 of the offense didn’t receive the stark majority of work were 2008 and 2009, where Best missed five total games due to injury, and 2012 where Sofele was a middling talent.

When it comes to receiving prowess, however, the statistics tell a different tale:

From 2004 through 2012, no Tedford running back received more than 34 receptions in a given season.  This is more than mildly surprising, as Tedford’s Cal teams have boasted superior pass-catching threats like Forsett, Best and Vereen.  Digging deeper, you can see there wasn’t much of a difference between the receiving outputs of the RB1 and RB2 of the offense, suggesting a Tedford offense has no bias towards its pass-catching threats out of the backfield.

Given the totality of the numbers above, the breakdown of Tedford’s ball carrier usage during his time in college is as follows:

All told, on average the RB1 in a Tedford-led offense was responsible for 69.1% of the carries, 68.4% of the rushing yards and 68.6% of the rushing touchdowns.  The story is a bit different through the air, as the RB1 accumulated “only” 58.5% of the receptions and 56.4% of the receiving yards (receiving touchdowns were negligible).  Nevertheless, the entirety of the above examination is suggestive of a weekly bias towards the RB1 of the offense, and this is summarized below:

Conclusion

On a per-game basis, Martin was one of the most heavily used ball carriers in the league during his first two seasons and this volume helped him achieve high-end RB1 greatness.  With the departure of head coach Greg Schiano, it became fair to wonder if Martin’s robust usage would continue.  Would new offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford utilize the “muscle hamster” in the same manner?

The projected results are mostly favorable.  Martin appears likely to receive the lion’s share of work and push for 20 touches a game, although his receptions and receiving yards seem likely to drop.  He also remains the likely favorite for scoring opportunities.  The fears of a true split backfield are unfounded.

With that said, it looks as if the 368 touches he received as a rookie will be hard to replicate, as backup Mike James will likely cut into Martin’s workload more than owners are accustomed to.  This is potentially good news for Martin’s career longevity, but doesn’t help owners hoping to ride Martin as an elite RB1.  He’ll likely still function as a mid-level to low-end RB1 (the loss of receptions would hurt), but expectations should be tempered, if only slightly.  Regardless, Martin should still serve as a fine building block for any dynasty team.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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