Grading our 2013 Predictions: Part Two
Each and every year we take a moment towards the end of August to poll our staff and ask what they think is going to happen during the following fantasy season. We ask a variety of questions ranging from who they think will be the fantasy MVP, fantasy rookie of the year, and everything else. If you want to see the exact picks and explanations for them, you can go ahead and take a look at part 1 and part 2.
In case you don’t want to go back and see all of the details, I’ll do the heavy lifting for you with a nice little wrap up of our predictions that were made back in August. Just for fun, bragging rights, and some good natured ribbing, I’ll also name a prediction champion as well as award the “swing and miss” title for the year! After all, none of us can be right all of the time!
The nominees for each award are the players that our writers predicted back in August with multiple votes shown by the numbers. The list would certainly be different if they were allowed to pick now, but that wouldn’t be as much fun! Previously I took a look back at part 1 of the predictions segment that can be found here. On with part 2!
Fantasy Sleeper Nominees: Rueben Randle (2), Marquess Wilson, Chris Givens, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, Julius Thomas, Roy Helu, Quinton Patton (2), Brandon Weeden, Jarius Wright, Joique Bell, Greg Little, Dwayne Allen, Jeremey Kerley
To me a sleeper is someone that is for the most part off the radar of fantasy starters that suddenly breaks out and has a season that puts him into consideration as a fantasy starter on most teams. To have a sleeper hit, especially a deep sleeper is an extremely rare thing. Looking at this list of nominees, it is a pretty rag tag bunch as most of our writers went the route of deep sleepers. Wilson, Givens, Smith, Manuel, Helu, Patton, Weeden, Wright, Little, and Kerley really didn’t belong anywhere close to fantasy lineups this year. Maybe next year for the likes of Givens, Patton, and Wilson but the rest are out of luck in my opinion.
Looking at what is left, Allen had a wonderful pre-season and hopes were very high he would be a part of the second year surge we were expected from the Colts’ offense under Andrew Luck. He managed just one regular season game before being lost for the season. Randle definitely flashed his talent this year, but he wasn’t anywhere near as consistent as is required for a fantasy starter even though he did have 41 receptions for 611 yards and a team leading six touchdowns. He could be huge next year, but this year he doesn’t cut it.
Case for Thomas: Thomas exploded onto the scene with five catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in week one. He had a massive eight touchdowns over the first seven weeks. His pace slowed a bit as the season moved on, partially due to an injury that led to him missing two full games and parts of a third. Even with the two missing games he ended what was definitely a breakout season with 65 catches for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. That was good enough to finish as a top three tight end in a lot of leagues.
Case for Bell: Bell won the most undervalued fantasy player award from the previous article, but does that mean he wasn’t also a sleeper? Just to recap what Bell did. He managed 1197 combined yards on the season and 8 touchdowns to go with his 53 receptions, making him a true find in PPR leagues and a high end, though slightly inconsistent RB2.
2013 Fantasy Sleeper: Julius Thomas! Not only did Bell already get one award but Thomas was top three at his position.
Honorable Mentions: If we are talking about people off the radar and then exploded, you need to mention Knowshon Moreno and Julian Edelman. Both were left for dead by the fantasy community at large before putting up great seasons. Moreno was a top five running back in PPR leagues and Edelman was a top fifteen receiver. A point to Jeff Beran for choosing Thomas with the miss going to the choice of Wilson’s massive two catches on the season.
Best Dynasty Buy Nominees: Julius Thomas (2), Travis Kelce, Fred Davis, Jonathan Stewart, Alfred Morris, Justin Blackmon, Aaron Dobson, Vincent Brown, Dwayne Allen, Josh Gordon, Rob Gronkowski, Vance McDonald, Ronnie Hillman, Isaiah Pead, Alshon Jeffery
When we are talking about the best dynasty buy, we are talking about the player that gained the most value of the course of the 2013 NFL season. When you look at the list, the likes of Kelce, Davis, Blackmon, Brown, Allen, Gronkowski, Hillman, and Pead definitely lost quite a bit of value over the course of the season due to injury, legal issues, terrible play or younger players taking over their role in the offense.
Looking at the rest of them, McDonald flashed at times but really didn’t see enough playing time to increase his value much if at all. The same could be said of Dobson and Stewart, both of whom struggled on and off with injuries for the season. Morris is a rather interesting name on this list. I felt he was undervalued coming into the season but his relative lack of touchdowns and impending coaching change make him a definite risk moving forward. Thomas would have been a great buy target but we just gave him the sleeper award and I’m not sure he compares to the two other names that remain.
Case for Gordon: Coming into the season, Gordon was suspended for the first two games and had an unsettled quarterback situation. He leaves the season as one of the best receivers in the game and someone that is in the discussion for an early first round pick in startups. There is still the knucklehead factor to worry about but the talent is undeniable. The climb from fourth or fifth round startup value to one of the first few picks is massive.
Case for Jeffery: After a disappointing rookie season, Jeffery showed up to play. In fact, he nearly outscored teammate Brandon Marshall in fantasy points while surpassing him in yardage and yards per catch. Given that Jeffery was valued about six rounds later than Marshall last off-season that is quite the gain in value. Jeffery is about to turn 24 and coming off of a 89 catch, 1421 yard season he is likely to be drafted in the top ten receivers.
2013 Best Dynasty Buy: Josh Gordon! It was definitely close, but the upside of Gordon wins it.
Honorable Mentions: Antonio Brown, Eddie Lacy and Jordan Cameron definitely deserve some mention as young players that are climbing the ranks and should have made their owners proud. All three need to be considered near the top of their positions from here out. Point to Eric Olinger for the Josh Gordon pick with a swing and miss on Blackmon given his legal issues and the price it took to get him last offseason.
Best Dynasty Sell Nominees: Daryl Richardson, David Wilson, Brandon Marshall, Shane Vereen, Terrelle Pryor, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch (2), Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson, Mike Wallace, Vernon Davis, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Eric Decker
Looking at this list, if there was any category we as a staff were dead on with our predictions this was it. There are a lot of big names on the list and the majority of them lost some value as the season went on. In fact, I would say that the only player on this list to actually gain value this year was Eric Decker. Some might also say Vereen gained value, going from overvalued to super overvalued in my eyes, but I’m not sure what he did to gain that value.
Marshall, Gore, Lynch, Peterson, and Davis all had decent seasons. They might not have been as spectacular as some of the past few years, but they were definitely solid producers this year and lost more value due to aging another year than anything else. That kind of depreciation is to be expected with all players, so I’m going to toss them out. Daryl Richardson and Pryor aren’t the same quality of players as the rest on this list, so they are gone too.
Now we are on to the big boys. Wallace didn’t seem to be the same Mike Wallace we had seen the last few years. We knew he was a bad fit in Miami, but he followed the money. McFadden had a terrible year, even by his standards, but you should have come to expect that by now and I’m not sure there was much of a market for his services in fantasy leagues just like there won’t be much of one in NFL free agency.
Foster’s touchdowns dropped and he did get injured, both of which are concerns, but his six healthy games had him on pace for over 1,900 combined yards with 59 receptions. Plus, his yards per carry climbed back to over 4.5 for the first time since 2010 so there is some hope if he can get healthy. Miller didn’t see nearly the usage that most had hoped. He had ten games under 12 carries, which just isn’t going to cut it. He did flash at times though, doing just enough to tease owners. Neither one was as big of disappoints as our two finalists though.
Case for Richardson: When I started this look back, I told myself I wasn’t going to give anyone two awards, but Richardson’s season was so bad I had to break the rules for him. He went from one of the top picks overall to outside of the top 30 running backs in PPR leagues even though he was on the field for all 16 games. It is hard to find a more drastic drop in dynasty value anywhere. I don’t even know if he’s a RB2 moving forward, so I sure hope you sold on him at some point this year.
Case for Wilson: Wilson’s fall from grace was of a little bit different sort. Wilson was hyped up so high last offseason he was bound to disappoint. Few expected he would fall so far though. The injury he suffered has been talked about as career threatening and at the level where one hit could end it all. That has his value in a downward spiral. The talent is still there, but the question is if he’ll play again and for hour long.
2013 Best Dynasty Sell: Trent Richardson! It was such a terrible year he gets his second award.
Honorable Mentions: None compare to the likes of Richardson in this category, but the fall in value for Michael Vick, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Stevan Ridley, and Hakeem Nicks need to be pointed out as well. Point to Dr. Scott Peak for choosing Richardson to sell prior to the season with the swing and miss going to Eric Decker on this one.
Comeback Player Nominees: Ryan Mathews (4), Maurice Jones-Drew (2), Fred Davis (2), Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald (2), Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Vincent Brown (2), Hakeem Nicks
In my eyes, a comeback player is someone who was formerly a top player at their position, had a terrible season for one reason or another, and then get back to their previous level of excellence. If we use those criteria, we can throw out a few of the players on this list. Vincent Brown wasn’t ever a top player at his position, so he is out. Nicks didn’t even come close to his previous level of play, so he’s out even more than anything else. Davis, Palmer and Jones-Drew had seasons to forget as well.
Mathews and Fitzgerald are interesting nominees. Neither one was even close to the top 25 at their position in 2012, so they definitely improved this year. Unfortunately it wasn’t as much of an improvement as most were hoping for with the two players. They didn’t make it back to the top 15 at their respective positions, both players falling just outside of it, but that isn’t quite enough for this award in my eyes. That leaves just two nominees for the final award.
Case for Johnson: Johnson’s 2012 season started off at a historically bad rate. In fact, at one point if you measured his production in feet per carry while the rest of the league was yards per carry, he was still outside the top ten. His season did improve from week seven on though and he actually finished as a high end RB2 for the 2012 season. 2013 was an improvement, putting Johnson back into the RB1 discussion though he was inconsistent as always.
Case for McCoy: McCoy missed four games in 2012 with injury, dropping him down into the RB2 realm on the season with the likes of Stevan Ridley and Steven Jackson. Of course both Jackson and Ridley were active for all 16 games to put up those numbers. In Chip Kelly’s system, McCoy came back in 2013 with a vengeance, topping his per game productivity in 2012 by a decent margin. Combine the increased productivity with a full 16 game season and you get a top three running back.
2013 Comeback Player: LeSean McCoy!
Honorable Mention: Peyton Manning is the name that probably comes to everyone’s mind when they think of a comeback in 2013. He went from middle of the pack QB1 to best season ever for a quarterback. A point goes to Jeff Haverlack for choosing McCoy with the swing and misses going to those who picked Nicks and Davis.
That’s the end of our look back at our preseason predictions. Overall, our staff did a pretty impressive job naming players back in August. The vast majority of names ended up being good choices for the award but only one can be the best. The most accurate of our bunch ended up being Chad Scott and Chris Rohrer with two completely meaningless points apiece by getting the best player twice! As for the other end of the deal, Jeff Beran had a rough day when he made the picks, highlighted by his faith in Justin Blackmon, Bryce Brown, and Kenbrell Thompkins. Easy mistakes to make given the hype and expectations around them last off-season.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
