Dynasty Mythbusters: Year in Review

Jacob Feldman

hunterWeek 17 of the 2013 NFL season is in the books, which makes the end of the regular season. Hopefully the year brought you good luck and a solid run in the playoffs. If not, I hope that you are well on your way to building a future contender. Either way, it is now time to get to work and ensure your team continues to climb the ladder in your league instead of falling behind! First and foremost that means making sure you give a very strong look towards some of the young players who are on your roster and on other rosters in order to figure out who is a future stud and who is a dud. That’s where I come in!

All season long I’ve been taking a look at a few unexpected breakouts or unexpected failures of those we assumed were future studs and tried to figure out if it was a random outlier or a sign of things to come. Hopefully it has been helpful to you over the course of the season.

I’m often asked if my opinion on people has changed a few weeks after I write an article, so I wanted to take a moment to look back. All these players were big topics at some point during the season for one reason or another. Since we are now done with the regular season, it seems like a perfect time to go back through my previous sixteen weeks worth of suggestions to see if anything has changed on any of them. It will also give you a chance for some quick insights in case you missed any part of this weekly column.

Week 1

Jerome Simpson, WR MIN – After a seven catch, 140 yard week one explosion, there was a bit of a scramble for Simpson’s services. I suggested you ignore him due to poor quarterback play, past performance and the fact the young stars were sure to eat into his role. Hopefully you didn’t go after him because it was only downhill from there. A season ending line of 48 receptions for 726 yards and four touchdowns was even worse than I expected. He belongs on the waiver wire.

Leonard Hankerson, WR WAS – Unfortunately for Hankerson, his two touchdowns during week one were two thirds of his yearly production over the ten games. I projected him as a future low end WR3 and the starter opposite Pierre Garcon in 2014. A torn up knee is likely to keep him from reaching those expectations in 2014 or ever. He isn’t enough of a talent to stop the Redskins from looking elsewhere.

Week 2

James Starks, RB GB – I pegged Starks as someone with a long injury history who could be a productive though inconsistent RB2 when given a chance. He hasn’t had much chance after going down the following week with injury, but he has looked competent behind Eddie Lacy during the season. He’ll be 28 at the start of next season, so he isn’t a long term piece. Sell him to the Lacy owner as a handcuff for whatever you can get.

Eddie Royal, WR SD – After two weeks, Royal was a top ten fantasy receiver with ten catches for five touchdowns. I hope you sold him when you had the chance! He ended under 50 catches and only had three more touchdowns. He’s a roster clogger at this point in time.

Week 3

Bilal Powell, RB NYJ – After a 149 yards rushing in week three, I suggested taking a gamble on Powell if you could get him at RB4 prices or lower. He didn’t keep the job, but no one else on the team did either. He’s an end of the roster flier at this point with low end RB2 upside.

Santonio Holmes, WR NYJ – I swung and missed on Holmes. Near constant injury issues killed his season, even when he was on the field.  The talent is still there, but his health and desire to play football are definitely in question. He’s a decent flier in deeper leagues based on talent, but he has very little value at this point.

Week 4

Matt Cassel, QB MIN – Billed as a stop gag QB2 for this year only and that is exactly what he is. No dynasty value here.

Brian Hoyer, QB CLE – I liked what I saw in Hoyer as a long term QB2 with the weapons that the Browns have. An injury the week after ended those dreams. With a new coach in Cleveland there will be a rookie quarterback. Look elsewhere for your fantasy team.

Week 5

Trent Richardson, RB IND – Good old Trent… I was down on him before most others were and I have seen nothing since to make me change my opinion. He just isn’t the dynasty stud many hoped and his value is dropping each and every week. I sure hope you cashed in when you could!

Week 6

Kris Durham, WR DET – As expected, week six was Durham’s biggest of the year. He’s just a security blanket for his college roommate, Matthew Stafford, when all else fails. He isn’t an NFL quality athlete and doesn’t belong on fantasy rosters.

Joseph Fauria, TE DET – He was a huge red zone target with five touchdowns by the end of week six. I predicted that was all he was and guessed at a season total of 15 receptions for 150 yards and eight scores. My guess wasn’t far from the truth of 18 receptions for 207 yards and 7 scores. I’ll have more on Fauria in a future article, but he just isn’t athletic enough to be a feature tight end and fantasy worthy.

Week 7

Jarrett Boykin, WR GB – Originally I viewed Boykin as a desperate WR3 play. He has actually performed better than I expected at times. He is still buried on the depth chart when everyone is healthy and lacks the athletic ability to be an NFL starter. For those reasons, he still can’t be trusted as a dynasty asset even with the age and production.

Harry Douglas, WR ATL – I liked Douglas as a WR3 for the season with the injuries to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Douglas was just that as he posted 85 catches for 1,067 yards, but only scored two touchdowns. He’ll be 30 shortly after the 2014 season begins and he’ll still be the third receiver on the Falcons. Use the production and his role to get what you can for him, because his long term value is pretty slim.

Week 8

Marvin Jones, WR CIN – The week eight performance of Jones was historic. It was also 16 percent of his catches, 17 percent of his yardage, and 40 percent of his touchdown totals for the season. He isn’t a top 20 wide receiver, but he does seem to be the guy opposite AJ Green – that role makes him a long term WR3 for years to come with WR2 production from time to time. Brian Hartline would be a fair comparison except Jones has more a knack for the endzone.

Week 9

Case Keenum, QB HOU – I expected Keenum to take the starting job and run with it. Instead, his sound decision making suddenly turned shaky and he struggled down the stretch. He didn’t look like a NFL starter over the last month and a half of the season and I don’t think he belongs on fantasy rosters. New coach means new quarterback and Keenum isn’t the guy. There isn’t any value here.

Week 10

Ray Rice, RB BAL – In week ten, I took a look at the struggles of Ray Rice. It didn’t look good and I suggested that owners wait for a big week 11 against the Bears and then sell him. He had 131 rushing yards and one touchdown against the Bears and 240 rushing yards with zero scores over the next six weeks. I sure hope you sold when you could for max value. Unless it comes out in the news that there was a major injury Rice was covering up, I think he is running on empty. I think it’s time to move him while the name still carries value.

Week 11

The Tampa Bay Backfield – The short of it is that Doug Martin is more of a high end RB2 than an elite RB1, Mike James is a solid backup/handcuff, and Bobby Rainey is talented enough to expose a bad defense, but otherwise very average. Nothing has changed those views.

Week 12

Ladarius Green, TE SD – The former Ragin’ Cajun (I just had to mention the best college team name again!) was almost invisible down the stretch with only three catches for 67 yards over the last five games. That should make it possible to buy him at a reduced price, and I think he should be a prime offseason target. It is an uphill climb, but he has the talent to be the next breakout tight end.

Timothy Wright, TE TB – Wright ended the year with 54 receptions for 571 yards and five touchdowns. Not bad at all for the rookie tight end. In fact, it was the top performance by a rookie tight end in the last few years. Still, I had the nerve to call him just “a guy in a good situation.” Some of our writers are very high on him, but I still think he’s just an above average talent with the upside of a Brandon Myers, Dustin Keller or Brandon Pettigrew. I just don’t see the special athletic ability that other tight ends possess. Losing his college coach could also hurt his chances.

Week 13

The Colts’ offensive struggles – Andrew Luck is still a future top five quarterback in the future. Donald Brown is more talented than Richardson (yes, I said it) and had almost the same number of yards on roughly half the carries. The real position to watch is the receiver position. TY Hilton is a talent, but I think he is miscast as the top target on a team. He needs someone on the other side of the field that can draw the attention of defenses. That guy might not be on the roster at the moment. I like Da’Rick Rogers, but it is going to be a long road to him being a consistent starter. He’s most likely the Colts’ third receiver long term.

Week 14

Justin Hunter, WR TEN – One of, if not my favorite rookie receiver going into this season, Hunter has huge upside. There is also some risk. After his big four catch, 114 yards and one touchdown in week 14, Hunter didn’t record another catch. He was inactive in week 15 for violating team rules and then held without a catch in weeks 16 and 17. I still love the upside, but he’s a gamble. Now is the time to buy if you can get him for WR3 or cheaper prices.

Da’Rick Rogers, WR IND – The six catches, 107 yards and two touchdowns in week 14 were better than the other four games that Rogers played combined. He’s a prime candidate to be overvalued right now given the risks that come with him. He’s someone who I would probably try to sell at WR2 prices and see if someone will pay for the massive potential. Like the rest of the former Volunteers who went into the NFL this season, the ceiling is huge, but his floor is by far the lowest.

Week 15

Antonio Brown, WR PIT – Now the single season record holder for the Steelers in receiving yardage and two short of the receptions record, Brown is way undervalued. He’s a PPR beast and needs to be viewed as a top ten receiver. If he isn’t being viewed as such in your leagues, you need to make an offer before his owner figures it out.

Shane Vereen, RB NE – With a grand total of six carries for 22 yards over the last three games and seven catches for 54 yards, Vereen is way over valued. With his injury history and the coaching philosophy in New England I still think owners should be selling him while the hype is in full swing. If you can get RB2 value for him it is a definitely win for you.

Week 16

Ben Tate, RB HOU – Tate simply isn’t the same running back he once was. The injuries seem to have taken a toll and he struggles to stay healthy. He’s likely to be a big name in free agency this off-season which makes that the perfect time to sell him. Shoot for RB2 value once the free agency talk heats up in late February and take it when you can get it!

Bryce Brown, RB PHI – Brown isn’t a complete back and he is under contract for the next two years. In other words, unless there is a major injury to LeSean McCoy,  Brown isn’t going to be worth much for quite a while. Try to sell him to the McCoy owner. If you can’t, I’m not even sure he is worth a roster spot unless you have super deep rosters. Two years is an awful long time to wait for a running back to get his chance.

That’s it for the first year of the Mythbusters series. Let me know what you thought of the series as a whole and any suggestions that you might have for changes to it for the 2014 season. I’ll of course be around all off-season with lots of other articles, rookie mock drafts (first one coming in about a month) and combine measurement analysis.

Thanks for reading all season!

jacob feldman