The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. I know there are some elite team defenses out there, but in a 12-team league with 18-player rosters, is it worth holding a defense over the off-season? It seems like every year there are surprise units like Kansas City and Carolina. – Ebron in IL
In my opinion, one of the main goals in dynasty football is to maximize the top-to-bottom talent on your roster. When it comes to a smaller league setting like yours, that thought process becomes even more important. Indeed, with only 216 players rostered and the 2014 rookie draft still yet to be held, there are going to be plenty of quality players still available on the waiver wire.
In fact, in the most recent mock draft coordinated by DLF’s own Ryan McDowell, the list of players available after the 216th selection includes (but is certainly not limited to) names such as Brian Hoyer, Doug Baldwin, Stepfan Taylor, Kenjon Barner, Marquess Wilson, Mychal Rivera, Delanie Walker, Charles Johnson and Brandon Bostick. No, there are no surefire studs amongst them, but that list includes numerous rookies and young players who could very well make an impact as soon as next season. Their projected rates of improvement undoubtedly dwarf the potential extra production you’d be receiving from an “elite” team defense.
To that last point, the only defense that deviated above the mean was the afore-mentioned Kansas City squad, which averaged 2.07 points per game more than the next closest group. However, the next thirteen defenses all scored within 1.70 points per game of one another, suggesting no real drop-off after the Chiefs. Combined with a game-to-game variance, there’s a very sound argument to be made for simply streaming defenses on a weekly basis.
Because of this I wouldn’t bother to carry a team defense on your roster during the off-season. There will be plenty of options available on the waiver wire before the 2014 season begins and the odds are high that some new squad will bust out next year much like the Chiefs did in 2013. Grab a player with more upside for now, and worry about the rest later.
2. What do we do with Harry Douglas? He was pretty useful this year, but he’ll obviously lose his starting gig when Julio Jones is healthy. Is Douglas worth holding on to? – Carmen in FL
Due in large part to a rash of injuries to Atlanta’s pass catching corps, fifth year Falcons’ receiver Harry Douglas has had a career renaissance of sorts. On pace for over 80 catches and 1,000 yards, to go with two touchdowns, Douglas is set to literally double the output of any of his prior campaigns. Owners who sagely scoured the waiver wire when budding superstar and fellow Falcon Julio Jones went down have been rewarded with WR2-caliber production in a PPR setting.
However, as was mentioned in Carmen’s question, Jones is set to return in 2014, as will his veteran teammate Roddy White. Since Jones’ arrival in the league in 2011 and prior to a disastrous 2013, the pair has accounted for 325 receptions, 4,804 yards and 33 touchdowns in just two short years. Suffice it to say, if the Atlanta offense is a buffet, Jones and White are first in line.
With that said, the likely retirement of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez will leave a sizable void in the Falcons’ passing game. Since joining Matt Ryan and company in 2009, the venerable Gonzalez has sported per-game averages of 5.1 receptions, 52.2 yards and 0.44 touchdowns – someone will need step up to fill that hole. With no other proven options at the tight end position, it’s entirely possible we’ll see Atlanta focus on more three-receiver sets in order to get their best playmakers on the field, and Douglas could subsequently receive a bump in playing time.
Because of this I’d be hesitant to give up on him just yet. It’s easy to say that his statistics are a result of necessity, but nonetheless Douglas has continually stepped onto the field and produced. It’s easy to criticize a player’s situation and therefore project a drop-off, but the simple fact remains it’s fairly challenging to become a 1,000-yard receiver in the NFL. The talent may have long been dormant, but it’s obviously there – that makes Douglas as stash-worthy as anyone.
3. In my 12-team, non-PPR IDP league I am already looking towards the off-season and based upon my record I will only be able to protect eight players. Barring a trade, which eight of these players listed should I protect – Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, CJ Spiller, DeMarco Murray, Zac Stacy, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffrey, Josh Gordon, Jimmy Graham and Robert Quinn? – Ash in TX
First things first, that’s quite the haul of players! You managed to connect on seemingly all of your mid to late round selections, and now boast a squad of multiple top tier players, each capable of starting for you on any given week. As such, this should be an extremely challenging decision.
Surprisingly though, I see it as fairly straightforward. Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham represent a quartet of fantasy football’s most ascendant players, and are obvious holds. Running backs DeMarco Murray and Zac Stacy are the lead dogs on their respective teams, and offer continuity at an often unstable position – there’s no way you’re letting them go either. Continuing, Rams’ defensive end Robert Quinn is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate as well as the “1b” to JJ Watt’s “1a” in the pecking order for most valuable IDP assets. There’s no way you can throw him back into the pool.
So truthfully, the remaining only question is whether or not you buy into a 2014 resurgence for Bills’ running back CJ Spiller? Battling an ankle injury all season, Spiller has been a shell of himself through 15 games, and owners who spent a first-round pick on the talented back are likely kicking themselves for doing so. However, it’s not as if he simply lost his talent – with an off-season to heal, I firmly believe he’ll be back to the ranks of the elite next season, and as such I’d advise you to hold tight here as well.
By process of elimination, I think you need to axe the quarterback duo of Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick. Though it may seem counterintuitive to part with a pair of QB1-level talents, the fact remains that signal callers just don’t carry much of a premium in 12-team leagues. Moreover, I see no reason why you wouldn’t be able to nab one of the two (or a player of similar talent) in your 2014 dispersal draft. The quarterback position is inarguably the most fungible in smaller league setting, and you’d be doing yourself a disservice by parting with high-end talent at other positions – maintaining a core of the eight players listed above will ensure your viability as a contender for years to come regardless of who you start under center.
4. Please make sense of the likely 2014 Rams’ receivers for me! – Nick in MA
Well, I’ve never parted a sea or turned water into wine, but what the heck – let’s try for a miracle here! Here’s a listing of St. Louis pass catchers in the order I’d prefer to own them, as well as what I perceive to be their future values:
Tavon Austin – To be clear, I’m not a huge fan of Austin’s game and question whether his skill set will ever truly translate to the NFL level. With that said, I have to imagine he’ll see a bump in usage, as well as a greater volume of “manufactured plays” a la Minnesota’s Cordarrelle Patterson. I think he’s the best bet to lead the pass catching corps in touches, but would still be looking to sell if you could find a believer and snare a 2014 first round pick via trade.
Jared Cook – As always, it’s not the talent that frustrates us, it’s the consistency. After decimating the Cardinals in the first week of the season, Cook’s average weekly line looks like that of a replacement level player. However, he’s remains an athletic freak at an unsettled position, and averaged six targets per game when Sam Bradford was under center. I’d hold tight and hope for low-end TE1 output next year.
Chris Givens – He’s the best deep threat on the team and also plays the most snaps out of all the receivers. That alone should have guaranteed improvement upon a strong 2012 rookie season, but once again the loss of Bradford rears its ugly head. I still think he has a bright future and in a vacuum I prefer him to Austin – however, you’re not going to get any type of return commensurate with his potential if you sell now. I’d instead look to buy and hope for WR3-level output in 2014.
Stedman Bailey – Bailey has already bypassed the other options at the position and played a season-high 40 snaps in week 16. The supposedly “lesser” of the two former West Virginia Mountaineers doesn’t boast elite size or speed, but was nevertheless highly productive in college. Simply put, he’s a football player. I’d be looking to buy wherever possible in the hopes he’ll continue to grow into a WR3.
The Rest – Brian Quick has been passed by Bailey and is droppable in shallow formats. Austin Pettis had his early-season moments in the sun but is now one of the low men on the totem pole. Lance Kendricks is an intriguing hold in larger formats but isn’t likely to ever truly flourish until he finds a new team.
Ultimately, I doubt any of the players listed above achieve some great level of individual success next year. More than likely the Rams will continue to employ a “spread the wealth” philosophy in the passing game while leaning on the bruising Zac Stacy to move the chains. Put succinctly, if you win a 2014 fantasy championship while starting any of the Rams’ pass catchers, you’ve performed a miracle of your own.
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