Final Rookie Mock Draft

It’s championship week in most leagues, so if you’re still going, congratulations! We’re already turning our attention to the future. Before we look all the way ahead, we bring you one last look at the draft class of 2013. Very soon these players cease to be rookies and our attention turns to the new crop of former college players filled with potential and the high hopes of franchises, in both fantasy and reality.

Instead of doing our traditional mock draft format with the randomized order and comments by both the person making the pick as well as some thoughts from me, we have mixed things up a little bit this time. In order to give you a more accurate picture of how we as a DLF staff value the 2013 rookies and how they might be valued in your leagues, we decided to do a composite view of the entire draft class. Our staff was asked to submit their top 24 rookies of the 2013 season as they see their value going forward into the 2014 season and beyond. Just like we usually do, we are assuming standard PPR scoring and ignoring any team need that might factor into things.

We had a total of 11 staff members submit their top 24 rankings – this resulted in a total of 36 rookies appearing on the various lists. In order to even out the players that were left off the lists, anyone who was not on someone’s top 24 rankings was given a rank of 30. The various ranks were then averaged to come up with our composite rankings of the 2013 rookie class. Before we get to the ranking of the players, here is a brief look at some of the interesting statistics of this “mock draft”:

• 11 different names appeared in the top five of at least one of our staff members
• No player appeared in the top five of every staff member’s rankings
• Only 15 rookies appeared on every list
• Everyone in the composite top 24 appeared on at least five lists
• Four players accounted for all 11 of the first place votes: Giovani Bernard (5 votes), Keenan Allen (3), Eddie Lacy (2) and DeAndre Hopkins (1).

What does all of that tell us?

It means that while there are definitely some tiers that developed when we did the composite, the exact rankings within those tiers are very up in the air. The difference from one staff member to the next on a player might be as many as 18 spaces in their rankings, which is exactly why this slightly different format is a nice little change of pace for our final look back at the 2013 draft class.

When the composite ranking was created some natural gaps in the scores started to develop. Those gaps are where I’m drawing the lines between my tiers. For each player I’ll give you their best ranking, their worst ranking and their average when all 11 rankings were put together. I’ll also give what the average would have been if the worst ranking is removed so you can get a bit of a better picture of the data. None of the staff members were asked to provide any form of write-up with their rankings so after each tier I’ll provide a few of my own comments. On with the show!

First Tier

This group being in the first tier really shouldn’t surprise anyone. These are your blue chip fantasy rookies. Not only were they drafted fairly highly in fantasy drafts, they were also fairly productive over their rookie seasons. They all earned playing time early and often this season and on most weeks could be a reasonable starter if needed. All four of them received a first place ranking from at least one person. The first three were in everyone’s top five with the exception of their worst rank while Hopkins was outside of the top five on a total of four rankings lists. Personally, I had Allen and Lacy higher than Hopkins and Bernard because I think the upside of the first two is a bit higher than the latter two, but there are lots of people who disagree with me. Even a detractor like me will admit all four of them should be quality starters in your fantasy lineup for 2014 and beyond. The only debate is if they are RB1/WR1s or not.

Second Tier

This is a very interesting group. Patterson and Hunter are two of the highest upside players in the entire 2013 draft class. Both have the physical talent to be top five receivers in the NFL for years to come. They also have major question marks about their game and need a lot of refinement before they can reach their full potential. Neither of them is a sure thing, even after what we have seen in the last few weeks, but their talent is undeniable.

Then you have Zac Stacy.

Stacy is a classic example of an above average (but not great) talent who ended up in a good situation. With his superior work ethic, he turned in a very good rookie season for the Rams once he was given the chance to be a full time starter. In fact, Stacy has been right on par with Lacy on a per touch basis this season. The only item keeping Stacy from the top tier is that he just isn’t a top tier physical talent. He is a high character, high motor player with a very well rounded skill set in a good situation. There is a slight concern down the road that he might be replaced with a superior talent or worked into a committee, but for now the future is bright.

Third Tier

I debated putting Reed into the tail end of the second tier given that he had half of the rankers label him as a top six rookie. What stopped me was that the other half of the rankers had him in the double digits. Opinions on Reed are quite varied right now due in part to how concerned people are about his lingering concussion issues.  He is very talented and has shown chemistry with his quarterback that is several years ahead of what people expected from him. Many expected great things from Reed, but few expected them this quickly. If he can get healthy and stay on the field, he should be a TE1 for years to come.

The other three players in this tier all fit together in that they were all at one point or another in the discussion for the top pick in fantasy drafts. Austin has failed to find a role in the Rams’ offense, but he has flashed truly dynamic talent. The question is if the Rams will figure out a way to get him involved more than 5-10 plays a game. Ball lost out on the starting role and didn’t show well early in the season before coming on a little bit as of late. He has been roughly equal to Knowshon Moreno over the last few weeks in terms of production and still projects to be the running back of the future, the question is how long it will be before he gets that chance. Bell hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, missing three games due to injury and only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. He has looked good catching the ball out of the backfield and at the goal line and poor offensive line play might give him a bit of a pass on the poor rushing numbers. He’s still someone you want on your roster, but the shine has worn off a little bit on the Bell hype train.

Fourth Tier

Entering the fourth tier of rookies, we get to the first group of players who were not put into the top five ranking by any of our staff. This group could be split into two groups, those who didn’t live up to the expectations and those who seem to be exceeding them thus far.

Bad news first.

The perceptions of Eifert, Michael, and Woods have definitely tapered off over the last few weeks. Many expected (unfairly so in some cases) all three of them to be fantasy forces this year. Eifert has thus far failed to take over the top tight end role, continuing to split time with equally productive teammate Jermaine Gresham.  Michael hasn’t even been active for multiple games this year. Woods has had moments where he has flashed, but he has also had moments where he looked very much like a rookie and not looked like anything special. Like all rookies, they will take time to develop, but I think their current value is much closer to where their value should have originally been. Rookies need to earn their playing time just like everyone else and if they don’t produce, they don’t win the role. It is still early and all of them still have a solid chance to be a fantasy starter, but they are not locks for that kind of production down the road.

The other two (Williams and Ellington) have surprised a lot of people this year. Williams has shown the talent Dallas hoped he possessed when they drafted him. Like most rookies he has also made mistakes from time to time, but I’m fairly confident that he will end up being the future starter opposite Dez Bryant. I was also a bit higher than most of the other staff members on him. If he does earn the role, he should be a solid WR3 option with WR2 upside. As for Ellington, he has shown he is a playmaker for the Cardinals. The major issue Ellington has is his own coaching staff has said multiple times they don’t think he can handle more than 10-12 touches a game. He isn’t dynamic enough to be a fantasy starter on that number of touches, but he is in the running for a flex play and could jump up to a RB2 if his touches ever do increase.

Fifth Tier

The fifth tier is where we start seeing the rookies who really didn’t see consistent playing time for the most part this year. Most of them flashed at one point in time or another, but they couldn’t carve out a full time role on their teams either due to injury, rookie mistakes, or just having a crowded depth chart at their position. We know that all four of them have talent. The question is if they can avoid the injuries and prove themselves enough to their teams to earn a consistent role down the road.

I have Wheaton and Dobson a fair amount higher than the other two in this tier. I think both receivers have the skill set to mature into complete receivers and are on teams where the depth chart should be opening up fairly soon. With what we saw this year, I don’t think either one will ever be the top wide receiver on their team, which caps their upside, but they could be the secondary receiver and on the WR3 radar. Stills is a deep threat and has a lot of work to do if he wants to be more than that. With Drew Brees throwing him the ball, he’ll be a boom or bust WR3 down the road but at this point he is more likely to bust until some of the other players on the roster move on.

Lattimore is a very interesting player. He was taken as a middle or late first rounder in a lot of fantasy leagues last offseason and his owners should have known this was a redshirt year for him. Yet not a single one of our staff writers ranked him as a first round pick at this point in time. I never was as high as most on him because I think the injuries will leave him as more of a straight ahead runner and more of a committee back than a lead dog. Some owners are definitely souring on him even though they should have expected a year of nothing. If I can get him for a late second round, I would consider taking the chance.

The Rest

It isn’t until the twenties that we get our first quarterbacks to appear. This year has the chance to go down as one of the worst quarterback draft classes in recent memory if this past season is any indication. When the best rookie quarterback is a third rounder and no rookie quarterback has 2,300 yards, 18 touchdowns, or a 60 percent completion rate heading into week 16 of the season you know it was a down year. I didn’t even bother to put any of the rookie quarterbacks on my top 24 list because I don’t view any of them as even having high QB2 fantasy upside.

Ertz is a player who I would like more if it wasn’t for the system he is in. Chip Kelly’s system through the years hasn’t been overly friendly to the tight end position and doesn’t lead to consistent numbers for more than two pass catchers outside of the running back position. With Ertz being at least third on the list for the Eagles he is on the outside looking in. With Nick Foles as the quarterback, Kelly’s traditional system no longer works though, which means there is some hope for the future of the talented Ertz. I’m not completely convinced that Kelly is willing to change what he does though, so there are some questions about Ertz but not about the talent.

Last on our list but certainly not least in my mind is Da’Rick Rogers. I’m not going to get too much into Rogers in this article because I just gave you over 900 words just on him a few days back and nothing has changed since then. The short of it is that he has a very high ceiling but there are a lot of question marks around him. He’s the true high upside flier of this group.

Others receiving votes in order (best rank, number of times the player was ranked): Travis Kelce (16, 5), Marlon Brown (18, 4), Kenbrell Thompkins (20, 3), Knile Davis (21, 3), Tim Wright (17, 2), Geno Smith (24, 2), Johnathan Franklin (24, 2), Marquies Goodwin (20, 1), Vance McDonald (21, 1), Ace Sanders (21, 1), Joseph Randle (22, 1), Stedman Bailey (23, 1).

This is our last mock draft for the 2013 rookie class. Be sure to be looking in January for our “Way Too Early” mock draft of the 2014 rookies once we know who is declaring for the draft and who is staying in school.

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Jacob Feldman

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jacob is a high school math teacher by day and a father at night. This doesn't leave too much time for sane thought, so occasionally words like "icky" will slip into his writing. It is all a part of the fun!

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