Dynasty Stock Market: The New Studs

Ryan McDowell Posted On December 12, 2013

Every year, new players emerge as mainstays near the top of dynasty rankings and fantasy points scored lists. Many of these players are rookies stealing the show and causing dynasty owners to drool. Other times, we’ll see a veteran finally start to live up to their potential or exceed expectations with a new coaching staff or a new team. Finally, in some cases, players are valued as studs based on potential alone, having proven very little. Often, it can difficult to embrace these players as new studs, and in some cases we should be a little leery of embracing breakout players too quickly. For the purpose of this article, when referring to a stud player, the player is being valued as a top twelve player at his position, acknowledging this is a loose use of the term.

A season ago and throughout this past off-season, we saw many players emerge to be valued as a stud. At the quarterback position, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson all gained enough value to move into the stud tier. At running back, unproven players like David Wilson and Lamar Miller were being drafted and valued as top twelve players. Obviously, as you can see by some of the names above, sometimes these players maintain that status, while other times, it becomes clear that dynasty owners were placing far too much value on limited performance or the hope of performances to come.

Like any other year, in 2013 we have several players disrupting the formerly stable top twelve ranks, commonly referred to as QB1, RB1 and WR1. Also like every other year, not all of these players will be able to maintain their value. The true test is to identify which players will be around for the long haul and which are just a passing fad. Here’s a look at one player from each position that are all of a sudden being valued among the best in the game.

Nick Foles, QB PHI

I’ve discussed in other editions of the Dynasty Stock Market how the value of the top tier of quarterbacks has gone largely unchanged over the past calendar year. While there has been movement within that top tier, the members of the group have remained the same, until now. Eagles’ quarterback Nick Foles, in just his second season in the league, has shown that he can succeed, in large part due to the dynamic offense of new head coach Chip Kelly. Though he hasn’t held down the job all season, Foles is among the top scoring passers in the game when it comes to fantasy numbers. Though he has only started eight games, his numbers are good enough to rank him as QB19 in total points. Factoring in only the eight games he’s started, he’s averaging more fantasy points per game than any other quarterback, outside of Peyton Manning and he’s only twenty-four. Foles was lost in the shuffle of the strong rookie class that included Luck, Griffin III, Wilson and Ryan Tannehill, but he’s playing just as well as any of those more acclaimed quarterbacks.

The question is can Foles be relied on as a weekly fantasy starter, a QB1? It’s easy to start him on a weekly basis as the season winds down, considering he’s been on such a tear, but what about when the off-season and new startup drafts roll around? I will treat Foles just like I did some of the young passers last off-season. I will be willing to draft him as my first quarterback, but I will be sure to acquire a veteran whom I feel comfortable starting as a backup plan. A player like Philip Rivers would be perfect, based on his presumed ADP. As long as Foles has Kelly leading the team, I am happy to start Foles in this pass happy offense.

Shane Vereen, RB NE

This one kind of snuck up on us. In week one, Patriots’ starting running back Stevan Ridley had some issues with fumbling, as has often been the case this season. That led to more playing time for third-year back Shane Vereen, who immediately proved to be a valuable asset in the passing game. Vereen only carried the ball fourteen times for over a hundred yards, but even more impressive were the ten targets he saw out of the backfield. For a team missing valuable assets from prior seasons, this was a great sign of things to come. Unfortunately, Vereen suffered an injury that cost him the next eight games. When he came back in week eleven, he picked up where he left off, earning another double-digit target game. In fact, Vereen has four games with ten or more targets in just five games played this season. Vereen is tied for twelfth among all running backs for targets, despite playing in just those five games and his average of eleven targets per game is more than all but six wide receivers. In PPR leagues, he’s been gold the past month and his value is exploding as a result. In some recent updated dynasty rankings (including my own), Vereen has cracked the top five. This is partially a result of some uncertainty among many of the former top backs, like Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Trent Richardson.

Can Vereen sustain this pace? It’s clear that he will continue to be an active part of the passing game, especially with tight end Rob Gronkowski out for the remainder of the season, but head coach Bill Belichick is not known for his predictability when it comes to the running game. He has shown himself to be fickle, especially with his recent use of Ridley. So, Vereen could easily find himself in the doghouse of Belichick and see his role downgraded. There’s also Vereen’s injury history. In addition to the wrist injury that cost him eight games this year, Vereen also had a foot injury that kept him out for the first three games of 2012 and a multiple week hamstring injury during his rookie year of 2011. So, Vereen has a couple of major factors that should concern dynasty owners, but despite that, his production has been amazing and is enough that I’ve moved him into my top five running backs. I expect him to consistently be drafted in the second round of startup drafts this off-season.

Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

After somewhat of a slow start to the season, Bears’ wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has proven to be one of the top playmakers in the game. Since week three, Jeffery is WR3 in PPR leagues, only behind Josh Gordon and Calvin Johnson. Jeffery has twice this season set the Bears’ franchise record for receiving yardage in a single game and is up to nearly 1,200 yards with three games remaining. With the recent trend of dynasty owners relying on wide receivers as the cornerstones of their franchise, Jeffery has to get consideration among the top wideouts in the game, especially when his age of twenty-three years is factored into the evaluation.

For the past two seasons, the top five wide receivers had been somewhat established and it seemed they would remain as an exclusive club for the foreseeable future. That group, of course, includes the following: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. It became evident earlier in the season that the Browns’ young wide receiver Josh Gordon had worked himself into that group and now Jeffery may be doing the same. In the recent Twitter polls I conducted, which were the topic of a recent Dynasty Stock Market, Jeffery was voted as one of the top ten dynasty wide receivers, and in a recent startup draft, he was selected in the first round as the thirteenth overall player taken. Expect Jeffery to routinely be drafted in the late first or early second round of off-season startups.

As for Jeffery’s sustainability, like Foles, much of his success is tied to the arrival of a new, offensive-minded head coach, Marc Trestman. Trestman has already shown that his offense can succeed in the NFL and also that he doesn’t need a top quarterback. Even with start Jay Cutler on the shelf, the Bears, and Jeffery, have been great with Josh McCown throwing the ball. It’s unknown who the starter will be in 2014, but I’m not sure it really matters. With the success and excitement Trestman has brought to the Windy City, he has plenty of job security right now, which bodes well for Jeffery and the offense. The only question now is whether Jeffery can eclipse one of the big six wide receivers.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.