Dynasty Mythbusters: Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
From this point forward, I’m not going to be focusing very much on this season but rather the long term outlook for 2014 and beyond. From this time last year forward, many of us started to focus in on the 2013 rookie class. Like everyone else, I quickly found a few players that I liked more than others and some that I liked less. I was never as high as most on players like DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, or Keenan Allen. I’m ready to admit that I missed on Allen, but I still don’t view the other two as top receivers on their teams. Instead I view them as receivers that need to be compliments to other receivers if they are going to be successful fantasy assets. There was a duo of receivers and former teammates that I liked more than most as well, and they have been making some noise recently. For this week’s article I want to take a look at each of them and see what we can expect going forward. Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers, this is your week.
Justin Hunter, WR TEN
Rookie Season through week 14: 18 catches on 38 targets, 354 yards and four touchdowns.
Last three weeks: 11 catches on 19 targets, 232 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Hunter is a player who drew AJ Green comparisons for some parts of his game in college. He has elite speed for a 6’4” frame to go with elite leaping and catching ability. There were also some issues with his game. A torn ACL in college set back his progression and limited his time to work on vital wide receiver skills such as running routes. This led to a wide receiver with extremely high upside, but one who was also very raw coming into the NFL. Those that were being realistic never expected much this year and when he started to receive a lot of bad press during the off-season and preseason his stock fell very quickly with talk about his lack of maturity and toughness.
The Good: As I mentioned a moment ago the height, speed and leaping ability are off the charts. He has the physical skill set to become a top 10 receiver in the NFL. He is also extremely young (turned 22 last May) which means there is still a lot of time for him to mature both physically and mentally. When it comes to the injury, he seems to be completely over it with no ill effects.
His usage over the last three weeks is also extremely promising. During that span, he has averaged 3.7 catches on 6.3 targets for 77 yards. He has done this while playing only the third most snaps for of the Titans receivers. Week 14 saw his biggest workload (and statline) when he played roughly 75 percent of the snaps which was equal to the other top receivers for the Titans. The growing number of snaps and his production on less than full time work are definite plusses for the young Titans receiver.
The Bad: One of the biggest issues I have with Hunter is while he has ideal height for the position, his frame is still rather slim. He is a good five pounds lighter than AJ Green, who is also a little too small to effectively handle some of the more physical defenders. If Hunter is going to become a big time receiver, he needs to add some muscle so he can beat the press and box out some of the more physical defenders in the NFL. Fortunately he has the room on his frame to do this, he just needs to age a bit and spend the time to add 10-20 pounds.
Another major issue for Hunter is his understanding of an NFL route tree is fairly limited. Part of the reason he has touchdowns on four of his eight catches is he has been restricted to running a lot of deep go routes. This is the major drawback that he is going to need to overcome as a result of his missed time in college. He isn’t very clean and sharp coming out of his breaks. That needs to change before he can become a complete receiver and not just a deep threat.
Last offseason there were comments about his maturity and toughness that made its way into media circles. These were the first such reports about Hunter I have seen. I think these were largely a motivational ploy by the Titans coaches, trying to erase some of the entitlement that high profile rookies sometimes come in with. Long term they aren’t of any concern to me as any issues that actually existed have been worked out and were most likely just a product of him being a high profile 22 year old rookie.
The Ugly Truth: Hunter was and still is very raw, but anyone who paid attention to any of our off-season coverage knew that. He always was a long shot to do much this year, but the upside is definitely there. It was nearly criminal how far he slid in some of the rookie drafts last offseason. Over the last three weeks, we have just started to see glimpses of the talent that Hunter possesses – that means the window to buy low on him from an impatient owner has probably started to close. Those who were able to buy low on him or that drafted him and were patient; I think you will be very glad you did.
Hunter needs to spend the offseason doing two things: lifting in the weight room and learning how to run routes. If he is smart, he’ll hook up with one of the veteran receivers who runs offseason programs (like Larry Fitzgerald) and learn some of the finer points of playing the wide receiver position. If he does those two things, it is very possible that he could come in next season and be the counterpart Kendall Wright desperately needs.
Long term, I think Hunter is one of only four receivers (with the others being Cordarrelle Patterson, Da’Rick Rogers, and Keenan Allen) from the 2013 draft class who has the skill set to be a traditional top receiver on an NFL team. Tavon Austin is going to be special, but not traditional. The chances of all of them living up to their potential and reaching that lofty height is fairly slim, but they all have a chance. I like Hunter’s chance more than the rest of them.
Da’Rick Rogers, WR IND
Rookie Season through week 14: Two teams, active for only 2 games, targeted in only one of them. 6 receptions on 9 targets for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Rogers is one of the more interesting stories of the 2013 draft class. Out of high school he was a top ten college recruit in the Nation, receiving offers from the majority of the big name programs. He originally committed to Georgia before switching to Tennessee. He was at Tennessee for two years, playing sparingly as a true freshman before lighting people up as a sophomore, before they suspended him indefinitely for the ever ambiguous “violation of team rules.” He immediately transferred to Tennessee Tech and continued to dominate. Many had him highly rated going into the draft, expecting him to be a day two pick even with the character flaws. He shockingly went undrafted and ended up on the Bills in training camp. He couldn’t make the team and was released. The Colts signed him and put him on their practice squad, but didn’t make him active until the last two games. Was week 14 a sign of things to come?
The Good: Talent has never been in question when it comes to Rogers. At 6’2” and nearly 220 pounds, he is built like a top receiver in the league. He ran a 4.52 second forty yard dash with very impressive times in the shuttle run as well as some of the best jumps for the entire combine, not just at his position. In terms of physical abilities, he was one of if not the best receiver to come out of the 2013 draft.
The other undeniable item to like about Rogers is the team he is on. The Colts have TY Hilton, whom I still think is a very good NFL number two receiver but not a number one, but that’s about it. Reggie Wayne has most likely, and very unfortunately, played his last meaningful football. The rest of the roster is filled with receivers that either lack physical talent or that can’t catch the ball (Darrius Heyward-Bey, I’m looking at you!), which is kind of a big deal. There isn’t any reason Rogers couldn’t very quickly climb the ranks to be one of the top two receivers for the Colts with a future superstar in Andrew Luck throwing him the football.
The Bad: When the character concerns around you are so bad that a possible first round talent goes undrafted, it says a lot. As far as we know, these aren’t off the field run-ins with the law, but more of the maturity and respect for teammates issues. While these don’t automatically kill his chances, after all both Cris Carter and Brett Favre were cut or traded by their original teams because they had issues with maturity and alcohol, it is something to watch.
The best story that illustrates the type of issues came out of mini-camps this summer when he was with the Bills. A jump ball in the endzone was thrown up and Rogers went up to get it. He came down and then proceeded to stand over the defensive back and taunt him to the point that a fight occurred. Keep in mind, this was his own teammate he was taunting and provoking. It is that kind of mentality and behavior that caused him to fall in the draft and to be cut by the Bills.
The other major issue for Rogers is the same one that a lot of talented college receivers have, he doesn’t know how to run quality routes. In college, especially at Tennessee Tech, he just out ran, out jumped and out muscled everyone else. He needs a lot of polish on him, but there are few better to do it than guys like Reggie Wayne and Andrew Luck. If he can’t figure it out with the Colts, I’m not sure if there is anywhere else that will help him and I think he knows this.
The Ugly Truth: Rogers is supremely talented and might even be the most talented receiver on the Colts at the current point in time. If he can keep his head on straight and keep his mouth shut, the sky is the limit for him. Those are extremely big “ifs” though if you look at his past track record. Time is running out and he is pretty much out of chances. One mistake and he could very easily be Titus Young 2.0.
I like him starting the 2014 season as the Colts’ third receiver behind TY Hilton and a big name free agent receiver not currently on the Colts’ roster (my guess is Eric Decker). If he continues to develop, it will give the Colts the freedom to run some three receiver sets instead of being locked into the two tight end sets that they used for a lot of snaps early this season when people were healthy. The Colts desperately need someone of his talent level to help out their receiver group, but it is going to take some time.
Rogers has been and still is one of my favorite gambles from the 2013 draft class due to his massive upside. If he is currently sitting on the end of someone’s roster and you can pry him away for someone with a much more limited upside, I would jump at the chance. I would put the probability of Rogers becoming what he can be at well below fifty percent, but the ceiling is so high I’m willing to take the chance on him.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
