Herding Stats: Week Fourteen

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Josh McCown

I know, I suggested him last week but that turned out really good. He has yet another juicy lineup this week as well, so for the first time this season I’m going to suggest the same player in back-to-back weeks.. This week McCown gets the defense who has given up the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has given up the second most passing yards in the NFL with 3,728 yards and the fourth most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks with 22 so far this season. Opposing quarterbacks are attempting the third most pass attempts against the Cowboys at roughly 40 attempts per game and completing 26 of those attempts on average for a 65% completion rate. Meanwhile Chicago is racking up the sixth most passing yard per game in the league at 272 yards per game and are completion 1.8 pass touchdowns per game, on average, which is the eighth most in the NFL. One need look no further back than just last week to see how effective McCown can be at exploiting a subpar passing defense. Look for him to have another excellent game this week.

Running Back Focus:  Jamaal Charles

It seems kind of odd but I can’t remember suggesting Jamaal Charles thus far this season, so let’s end that oversight right now. Charles has a prime matchup against Washington this week who are giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. A huge part of this is due to the number of rushing touchdowns they’ve surrendered thus far with 15. It just so happens that Charles is the second highest scorer of rushing touchdowns in the league so he definitely has that going for him this week. Kansas City is great at running the ball if you haven’t been watching much football and suddenly decided to drop randomly into this article to get you up to speed. The Chiefs are gaining the sixth most yards per rush in the NFL with 4.6 yards being gained. Charles isn’t just a one trick pony either.  He has accumulated the third most receiving yards of all running backs in the NFL with 452 receiving yards. Even more interesting is he has been targeted an incredible number of times, 87 times to be exact. That total makes him the 33rd most target player in the NFL, more than even the number one receiver on his own team, Dwayne Bowe. The reason I bring up this statistic is because Washington is giving up the sixth most passing yards per game at 265 yards per game. Look for Charles to be extremely active both on the ground and through the air this Sunday.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Philadelphia WRs

I really struggled with which wide receiving corps. to go with this week, the Eagles or the Lions. Why do I mention this? Simple, these two squads face each other this week. The Eagles narrowly won out due to more legitimate options being in play and because they face the league’s worst pass defense. I should mention that the Eagles are the third worst passing defense in the league so there is a big expectation that this game could be a shootout. Anyhow, why the Eagles? Well, simply, the Lions are the only team in the league thus far who have given up over 200 receptions, they have given up the most receiving yards and they’ve given up the most receiving touchdowns. I shouldn’t have to write much more than that but I will just to really pound the point home. Philadelphia is completing the seventh most passes per game in the NFL with roughly 19 per game. The Eagles are also gaining the ninth most passing yards per game at 257 yards a game. What is interesting is they aren’t just “dinking-and-dunking” it down the field either. The average Philadelphia pass attempt is eight yards, fourth highest in the NFL, and the average pass completion is 13.3 yards, the best in the NFL. Everything about this game screams that the football should see more time in the air than a 747, play the Eagles receivers with confidence.

Tight End Focus:  Jared Cook

So remember way back to week one when Jared Cook surprised everyone with a seven reception, 141 yard and two touchdown game? Cook hasn’t been anywhere near that level since. However, Cook owners who have stuck with him through the thick and thin should be rewarded this week due to a great match-up against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have consistently been torched by tight ends this season, giving up the most fantasy points to the position of all the teams in the NFL. Arizona’s clear Achilles heel is well known by the rest of the NFL. The Cardinals have given up over 50% more touchdowns to tight ends then even the second closest team with 14 touchdowns coming to tight ends this season. Arizona has also given up the most receptions and most receiving yards to tight ends with 79 receptions and 1,042 yards surrendered thus far this season. As for Cook, do you happen to remember who his week one opponent was? Yep, that’s right, the Cardinals. If Cook is going to have another offensive explosion then the smart money is on it happening this weekend.

Defensive Team Focus:  Patriots

The exploits of the New England offense are well-chronicled but as of late their defense is really helping even out games. The Patriots are giving up the tenth least passing yards per game and are collecting the tenth most sacks per game. Meanwhile, they will be facing a Cleveland offense who is giving up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing defense this season. The Browns are surrendering 3.5 sacks per game on average to opposing defenses this season. They are also throwing at least one interception per game which makes for a nice bump in defensive points. Additionally, Cleveland has an extremely limited rushing game, ranking fifth last in rushing yards per game with only 82 per game. If the potent Patriots offense can jump out ahead like they are fully capable of, they will render the Browns offense extremely one-dimensional. This plays right into New England’s defensive strength as the Patriots are the tenth strongest defense against the pass this season. Look for a great performance from New England this weekend.