IDP Watch: Week Twelve

Steve Wyremski Posted On November 29, 2013

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but the masses have not picked up on it. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends that are essential for dynasty players to be aware of.

Often things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores. These are huge indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

It’s Black Friday, so people’s time is short. We’ll go with some quick hits on this long holiday weekend. Here are some players and trends to keep an eye on:

erin_henderson Things that jump out from week 12 performances…

Paul Worrilow (ATL MLB) continues to play closet to every down despite the return of Sean Weatherspoon a few weeks ago. Against the Saints, he played 95 percent of the team’s snaps on his way to leading the team in tackles. He looks to be a fixture in IDP lineups both near and short-term even with Weatherspoon in the mix competing for tackles.
With Erin Henderson (MIN MLB) out this past week, Audie Cole played every down. He also put together a monster week with 11 tackles, two assists, a sack, three quarterback hits, and three pressures. The overtime game and above average tackle opportunities helped, but it was an outstanding first career start. Henderson is likely to slide back into the starting lineup, but Cole has earned himself some future snaps. He’s a long-term stash given this performance.
It only took three games, but Aldon Smith (SF OLB) is back to his usual self. He’s not playing every down just yet, but they’re increasing. He finished week 12 playing a little more than 70 percent of snaps and amassed two sacks, two tackles, an assist, five quarterback hurries, and one pressure. He’s back to being a weekly starter in most formats. He looks to be past his issues.
With the way Olivier Vernon (MIA DE) is playing, it’s going to be difficult for Dion Jordan to see meaningful snaps and become an impactful IDP player. Vernon continues to play 70 to 80 percent of the team’s snaps and continues to get to the quarterback with seven sacks in eleven games. His 29 hurries on the season ranks 12^th among defensive ends. He’s still very underrated given the situation, but he now ranks ahead of Jared Allen, Charles Johnson, Cameron Wake, and Mario Williams on an average points per game basis in many tackle heavy formats, for example.
More relevant for big-play leagues, but Bjoern Werner (IND OLB) started for the Colts in week 12 in place of the suspended Erik Walden. He didn’t show up on the box score, but he played 78 percent of the team’s snaps. Given the lack of production, Walden should again assume the starting spot in week 13.

Looking towards 2014…

Damon Harrison (NYJ DT) looks to be a diamond for the Jets. In defense tackle required leagues, he may be the same. He continues to play a decent number of snaps and is consistently making tackles. He’s a top ten option especially given the respect and attention that both Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson command on the outside.
As soon as Andre Branch (JAX DE) is written off, he bounces back with two straight weeks of solid performances. Over the past two weeks, he put together two sacks and two tackles on roughly 50 percent of the team’s snaps. He’s again on the IDP radar and may be worth stashing depending on league depth.
Arthur Brown (BAL ILB) has yet to play more than 50 percent of the team’s snaps on any given week, but he still has the raw ability to succeed. The Ravens’ signing of Daryl Smith this past offseason has limited Brown’s rookie season opportunities. You’d think that Brown should beat out Jameel McClain next season for the starting gig next to Smith, though. The rookie season disappointment may present an opportunity to buy low on Brown.
It’s the second week in a row for an update on Allen Bailey (KC DE). In week 12 against the Chargers and starting in place of the injured Mike Devito, Bailey played 70 percent of the team’s snaps. In that time, he accumulated 7 (!) hurries and two tackles. He looks to be a perfect stash in deeper leagues given his 2013 flashes and the opportunity he’s likely to have in 2014.
Sio Moore (OAK SLB) continues to play well, but will be limited by the strongside linebacker position. He’ll need Kevin Burnett (signed through 2014) to move on so that he can slide to the weakside and become more IDP relevant, but it’s clear Moore is a playmaker with the ability to dig through the trash and get to the quarterback. With the ability to put his hand in the dirt and get to the quarterback, Moore should continue to amass sacks and present IDP upside. Burnett is his main obstacle to IDP notoriety.
Looking for a deep defensive tackle required long-term option? Stacy McGee (OAK DT) may be worth a look. He’s had some issues off the field in college, but he possesses the natural attributes requisite for a successful NFL defensive tackle. He’s played well the last two weeks with increased opportunities, which is a positive sign. He may fizzle given his lack of college production and apparent off the field issues, but he’s an interesting guy to monitor given that he was coveted coming into college.
Damontre Moore (NYG DE) is primed for an increased role in 2014 with Justin Tuck set to be a free agent. Cullen Jenkins will still be in the mix next yer, but Moore will absolutely see increased time in passing situations given his ability to get to the quarterback.