The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In a non-PPR league, who has the most potential for the rest of the season – Chris Ivory or Shane Vereen? – Eric in TX
The Jets’ Chris Ivory and the Patriots’ Shane Vereen represent a pair of players who saw dramatic increases in value during the 2013 off-season. With their expected rises on their respective depth charts, it was largely assumed that each of the talented young running backs would finally get their crack at a significant workload. Well, as we know by now, it hasn’t quite worked out that way.
Ivory predictably injured his hamstring during training camp and struggled to pass the ordinarily talented Bilal Powell in the early portions of the year. While his 11.7 touches per game seem respectable on the surface, he rarely plays when the Jets fall behind and has offered no semblance of consistency (weekly touches: 10, 12, 4, 4, 4, 35, 6, 18, 15 and 9). Simply put, Ivory’s game log is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re gonna get!
Conversely, Vereen’s season got off to a great start as he totaled 159 yards in the first game of the year. Unfortunately he also broke his wrist, and wound up missing the next two-plus months. Not to be denied, however, Vereen returned with a vengeance, averaging 13.5 touches and 81.5 yards over the past two weeks. With head coach Bill Belichick seemingly at his breaking point with starter Stevan Ridley’s fumbling issues (he’s lost four this season), I expect Vereen to continue to function as a significant part of the offense.
It’s not all unicorns and rainbows though, as Vereen derives the majority of his usage in the passing game, which is somewhat mitigated by your non-PPR format. However, he’s been steadily targeted in the three games he’s played (weekly reception count: 7, 8 and 8), and is averaging 8.0 yards per catch. Even if Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden siphon away the majority of the rushing workload, give me Vereen’s steadiness and explosiveness any day of the week over Ivory’s unknowable weekly forecast. When you throw in yet another recent ailment for Ivory (ankle sprain), this one isn’t close – Vereen has very literally run away from the competition.
2. Obviously in dynasty you’re always looking to stash next year’s potential for cheap. Toby Gerhart looks to be a lock to move on next year and might have a decent shot to start for another NFL team. Can you please name some other veteran running backs (who currently don’t start) who you expect to have a bigger fantasy role next year? – Rob in MN
The Vikings’ Toby Gerhart is an interesting case, as he’s been an efficient player who just so happens to be stuck behind the greatest running back of our generation in Adrian Peterson. As such it’s been tough to get a read on him, as he’s yet to surpass 129 total touches in any given season. I can understand holding him and hoping for the best, but I personally view Gerhart as a career backup who’s unlikely to achieve fantasy greatness. He’s certainly a fine stash in deeper leagues, but I’d temper my enthusiasm here.
With that said, there are some other players I think are worth a flier:
Jordan Todman, JAX – Todman parlayed a great preseason into a two-year contract with the Jaguars. While he hasn’t shown much this year (only 31 carries for 93 yards), the entire Jacksonville run game has bogged down at an aggregate 66.8 yards per game (dead last in the league) and 2.9 yards-per-carry. Starter Maurice Jones-Drew is a virtual lock to leave in free agency, so Todman could very well be the face of the backfield in 2014.
Jonathan Stewart, CAR – I know, I know, we’ve all ridden this roller coaster before. With that said, Stewart has looked fresh and explosive since returning a few weeks ago, despite a limited workload. DeAngelo Williams seems like a long shot to re-sign for 2014, and it’s entirely possible J-Stew could finally get the majority of the backfield work.
Ben Tate and Dennis Johnson, HOU – Though Tate is easily the most obvious name on this list, it’s worth reiterating that he’s a free agent to be in 2014. If he doesn’t re-sign with Houston (I’m of the belief that Arian Foster is done as a fantasy asset), he’ll most likely land on his feet elsewhere. Should that happen, Johnson could be next in line, and has shown well so far this season.
Fozzy Whittaker, CLE – Whittaker is admittedly a shot in the dark, but he’s gained traction in the Cleveland backfield as of late. Nominal starter Chris Ogbonnaya is better suited as a complementary back, and Willis McGahee is on his metaphorical last legs. As evidenced by their trading of former first rounder Trent Richardson, the Browns’ brass doesn’t place an emphasis on the running back position, and could very well promote from within.
Mikel Leshoure, DET – Truth be told I’m not a big fan of Leshoure’s game, but he’s previously proven the ability to function as a viable fantasy asset. It was rumored teams were interested in acquiring him before the trade deadline, but Detroit wasn’t willing to give him up. That could very well change in the off-season, and Leshoure could get another chance in a different locale in 2014.
3. I am pretty concerned with Trent Richardson and only took him in a trade where I acquired Matt Forte as well. I have an offer from a buddy where I would get Ben Tate for Richardson. Who would you rather roster in a non-PPR league? – Cam in CA
Having arguably been DLF’s biggest Trent Richardson advocate, I’ve recently taken a step back from that stance. I’m still a believer in his upside and physical ability, and firmly believe he was hampered more than anyone wants to admit by virtue of having to pick up a new playbook on the fly, but the production just isn’t there. Having viewed him previously as the number one running back in dynasty, I now rank him a full tier lower as the overall RB13 – I feel his potential should slot him higher, but he still needs to earn it on the field.
With that said, it’s not as if the afore-mentioned Tate has been a revelation this season. Granted he’s been playing through multiple cracked ribs, but his yards-per-carry average of 4.2 is down from his career mark of 4.8, and he hasn’t functioned well in the passing game either (4.0 yards-per-catch). Coupling that with the uncertainty of his off-season destination, Tate’s stock has definitively sunk since the start of the season.
As such I’d just as soon hang onto Richardson. There’s simply too much upside in an Andrew Luck-led offense, and T-Rich will have the entire off-season to get acclimated with his teammates, as well as the playbook. Donald Brown will likely be leaving via free agency as well, ensuring Richardson won’t have to constantly be looking over his shoulder – in my opinion that type of continuity is severely underrated. Given the totality of these details, I’d decline and set your sights on a better 2014 for the young ball carrier.
4. It’s my first year playing in a dynasty league and my team is 3-8 this season. I’m interested in trading away pieces for rookie draft picks next season. I’ve already accrued what looks like will be the second, fourth and sixth overall picks this year as well as three first rounders for next season by trading away Pierre Garcon and Matt Forte. I just have no idea what the real value of these picks is. Can you give some clarification? – Matt in TX
I’ve often referenced a stock market analogy when it comes to dynasty football. In other words, assets such as players and picks will be valuated differently depending on the owner, as well as the timeframe with which you’re dealing. Put even more simply, supply often begets demand.
Right now you have the supply of future first rounders, meaning the demand is going to be there. At this point in time it will only be other non-contenders hoping to reshape their rosters for the future who will desire your array of picks. Contenders are likely doing the opposite, selling off picks in order to win a championship. Therefore, now isn’t the best time to consider selling.
Fast forward a few months and the games are long behind us. Everyone is on the same playing field, and the yearly NFL Combine is starting to get everyone excited for what the next crop of rookies can bring. Teams who don’t have first rounders want to trade back in, and the first signs of Rookie Fever are being reported. You could likely demand a ransom at this point, and if the deal is right you should take it. Personally, I’d keep waiting.
Hold on to your picks through the NFL Draft, as at this point players who land in what are perceived to be poor destinations get devalued – in my opinion, this is the absolute worst time to sell. But once your league’s draft begins, you’ll be the figurative belle of the ball. Nothing drives the concept of supply and demand home like owners seeing the players they covet get claimed, and you’ll undoubtedly receive countless texts and emails as the Rookie Fever reaches its breaking point.
It’s at this point that, if you didn’t want to make a selection, I’d trade the picks for a slew of promising young players. Talented second and third year players who didn’t show much early on in their careers become easier to acquire, as do future picks if you want to roll your bounty back a year. It’s an exercise in timing and patience, sure, but ultimately your query can be answered simply by stating that the value is always what someone is willing to pay.
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