The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

rice
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1)  Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2)  Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3)  Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1)  In my 10-man, non-PPR keeper league, I have the following running backs: Gio Bernard, Andre Ellington, Arian Foster, Knowshon Moreno, Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy. Should I pick up Ray Rice and drop one of these guys?Wolfpack in MD

First and foremost, let’s talk about how the mighty have fallen!  Yes, the Ravens’ Ray Rice has been abysmal this year and no, he doesn’t carry the same high value in non-PPR formats.  But at the end of the day he’s still a high volume runner on a team devoid of weapons.  Simply put, barring some extreme contract situation, he shouldn’t be on the waiver wire in any league, period.

With that said, it’s not as if you’re choosing a bunch of schlubs over him.  The combination of all your options represents a nice blend of youth, talent and proven ability, which is the type of mix for which every roster should strive.  As such I’d have a hard time cutting bait with any of them – save for one – the Texans’ Arian Foster.

I hate to sound so cavalier about an injured player, but with the exception of only the most hardened Foster apologists, I think everyone saw this coming.  Considering the multitude of factors working against him (including an immense workload, nagging injuries and diminishing on-field efficiency), it wasn’t hard to see Foster was staring a decline straight in the face.  It’s why I considered him the best dynasty “sell” last November and subsequently attempted to back up my viewpoint with statistics in January.  Ultimately, the evidence should have been far too overwhelming to ignore.

Now, to Foster’s credit he was running fairly well in limited action this season.  His 4.5 yards-per-carry (largely buoyed by a 20 carry, 141 effort versus the Rams) easily trumped his 2012 average, and he was becoming a bigger factor in the passing game as well.  Ultimately though, he succumbed to a combination of hamstring and back injuries, and was recently placed on injured reserve.

As such, I’m willing to take my previous prognostications one step further – I think Foster is done as a viable fantasy asset.  When aging, overworked running backs begin to fall off, the decline is generally swift and the end is usually near.  Given that, as well as the non-guaranteed nature of his contract, the Texans will have a big decision to make as to whether they want to rebuild around promising young talents such as Ben Tate and Dennis Johnson, or re-sign the veteran Foster.  With the entirety of this mess far from settled, and even given how Rice has looked so far this year (his week 11 versus the Bears was encouraging, at least), I’d much rather have him on my roster.

2)  I play in a half-PPR, 16-team keeper league where we can hold three players each year by giving up our draft pick in the round where the player was originally drafted.  I have two no-brainer keepers:  Dez Bryant (round four) and Rob Gronkowski (round eight).  My options for a third keeper are: Doug Martin (round one), Jordy Nelson (round two) and Zac Stacy (round 10).  I’m leaning towards Stacy because his value in the tenth round is so appealing, but Doug Martin tops virtually all dynasty rankings and it’d be hard to let him go.  How can you compare two keepers with such different keeper values, and who would you go with? We start one quarterback, one running back, two receivers, a tight end and a FLEX.Steve in Washington DC

First things first, I agree 100% with your decision to keep both Dez Bryant and Rob Gronkowski.  The combination of each player’s age and skill will form a solid backbone for your team for several years, leaving your weekly floor higher than that of your competitors.  With that said, your final keeper decision is significantly trickier.

Though his play fell off in the early portion of 2013, Tampa’s Doug Martin indeed remains one of fantasy’s most desirable assets.  His ability to shoulder the load, coupled with his involvement in the passing game render him as one of the league’s rare workhorse backs.  When he returns next year, I don’t anticipate either Mike James or Bobby Rainey siphoning a significant amount of work from the Muscle Hamster.

With that said, his cost is extremely prohibitive relative to that of the Rams’ Zac Stacy.  In fact, given the large size of your league, these two players were slotted upwards of 150 spots apart in your 2013 draft!  What Stacy lacks in his resume, he more than makes up for in relative cost.

As such I’ll take what will likely be the minority approach and suggest you hang onto the rookie.  Head coach Jeff Fisher is known to feed his running backs and Stacy has averaged 21.3 carries over the last six games before the Rams’ bye.  He might not be the flashiest player (4.2 yards-per-carry), but volume running backs are hard to come by – especially given his cost.  Factoring in the fact that your league is only half-PPR only further solidifies my opinion.  Keep Stacy and let the first-round dominoes fall as they will.

3)  I am one of the many disappointed Mike Wallace owners. I know I can’t get much for him in a trade so I am thinking of sending an offer to the Jarrett Boykin owner. I think that Wallace is more talented, but I also think Boykin offers the better situation because of his top quarterback, as well as his age. Does the situation make this a good trade or should I wait it out and hope Wallace and Ryan Tannehill can get on the same page?JBFootball in Cowboy Country

To paraphrase fellow DLF’er Karl Safchick’s recent Twitter diatribe, what’s the point of purveying fantasy football advice when you can’t own up to the ones you missed?  So when it comes to Mike Wallace’s early 2013 returns, that’s definitely one I’d like back.  In short, what the heck happened to the guy?

Long utilized by vertical passing game connoisseur Bruce Arians as a seam-stretching asset, I assumed Wallace’s down 2012 season was more a result of coordinator Todd Haley’s seeming ambivalence to his top-end speed.  By virtue of the Dolphins opening up the checkbook for the young receiver, I naturally figured they’d find creative ways to present him as the focal point of the offense.  Well, a paltry 44 receptions at 12.3 yards-per-catch later, and it seems I was mistaken.

However, fantasy football (especially dynasty football) requires conviction, so I’m refusing to give up on Wallace so soon.  Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has missed him on a number of big gainers and it’s entirely possible they’re still working out some sort of chemistry issue.  Perhaps more importantly, the Dolphins’ offensive line is in tatters, and Tannehill has been sacked a whopping 41 times through 10 games, a figure which easily leads the league.  Given the totality of the issues left to be ironed out, I think it’s too soon to deem Wallace’s stint in Miami as an abject failure.

Nevertheless, if you want to trade Wallace I can’t blame you, but I would want more than the Packers’ Jarrett Boykin in return.  Boykin has certainly played well, but when Randall Cobb returns he’ll more than likely be pushed back to the third man on the totem pole at best.  So all in all, to me this hypothetical trade seems a bit backwards – you’d be selling low on Wallace, which coincides with buying high on Boykin.  I think you’d be better served weathering the storm, and hoping there will be sunnier days ahead for the Dolphins’ passing attack.

4)  In one of my PPR leagues we can only carry 25 players (not including IR or taxi squad), and I’m stuck on the final five spots.  Which three of these guys would you cut – Kendall Hunter, Joique Bell, Khiry Robinson, Chris Givens, Mike Brown, Kenbrell Thompkins, Marlon Brown and Vance McDonald?Jordan in Vancouver

Whenever I consider my end-of-bench options, I look for some combination of age, proven ability and situational upside.  The age factor is obvious – these aren’t players you’re necessarily going to be relying on, so the more time they have to develop the better.  Similarly, a player’s proven ability speaks for itself.  Some players have already shown they type of potential they possess and depending on each specific case this will weigh favorably or unfavorably on their respective roster candidacies.

To me though, I think the last qualifier of situational upside might just be the most important.  When I use the phrase “situational upside,” what I’m essentially saying is let’s play the “what if?” game.  In other words, what if things broke the right way and Player X got his shot – what will be the likely outcome?  In essence, it’s the combination of skill and opportunity – fantasy kismet, if you will.

Given the above, I think four players immediately jump off the screen as those I’d want on my roster.  I’m referring to Lions’ Joique Bell, the Rams’ Chris Givens, the Patriots Kenbrell Thompkins and the 49ers’ Vance McDonald.  Let’s examine the case for each.

Bell, Givens and Thompkins represent fairly straightforward decisions.  Bell is next in line behind Reggie Bush, and although he’s older (27) he still has a lot of tread left on his tires.  He’s already shown legit PPR RB1 ability when called upon and given Bush’s injury history it’s no great leap to think he’ll get another shot soon.

Givens shined as a rookie in 2012, functioning mostly as a deep threat for quarterback Sam Bradford.  Though he hasn’t had the same success this year, St. Louis has employed a legitimate “spread the wealth” type of offense.  Regardless, Givens’ potential remains monstrous as a poor man’s DeSean Jackson.

Thompkins has fallen off a bit as of late, but resurfaced in a week 11 loss to the Panthers.  Though he’s been soundly bypassed by fellow rookie Aaron Dobson, the other receivers in front of him (Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman) don’t exactly possess “Favre-ian” durability.  In New England’s high-powered offense, the “next man up” could be a weekly starter.

McDonald represents a slightly tougher inclusion as he has yet to prove all that much on the gridiron.  With that said, apart from rare cases like Jordan Reed and Rob Gronkowski, rookie tight ends rarely make a fantasy impact.  McDonald has the requisite size, speed and strength to excel at the position, and the 49’ers aren’t exactly flush with elite skill position players.  He’s a great stash as an upside TE3.

For the last selection, I think we can safely omit Mike Brown, Marlon Brown and Kendall Hunter.  Neither of the Browns will be anything better than the third option on their full-strength teams, and this is rarely a recipe for fantasy success.  Analogously, Hunter has been unable to find a substantial niche behind the venerable Frank Gore and rookie Marcus Lattimore stands primed to carve out a role in 2014.  In each player’s case, I think you can do better.

By process of elimination, this leaves Saints running back Khiry Robinson.  Robinson remains unlikely to have any sort of immediate success, but we’ve already seen glimpses of potential when he subbed in for the oft-injured and perpetually underwhelming Mark Ingram earlier this season.  Ingram, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas are only under contract through the 2014 season, so Robinson could very well get his turn the following year.  If he can follow the blueprint set by former depth chart casualty Chris Ivory, you’ll have done well by keeping him – and really, what more could you hope for with your final roster spot?

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eric hardter