Mining for Paydirt – Week Eleven

Mining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues.  The players we focus on here are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers.  I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Joique Bell – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for.  I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates.  Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years.  These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on match-ups and situation.  Some may stick, some won’t.  It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.

Whenever I go 0-fer, I feel awful for anyone who took my advice – if there are any of you out there.  Last week wasn’t a good week.  Not only did I not hit pay dirt, but I barely penetrated the overburden sitting atop said pay dirt.  Denard Robinson had just four carries for a measly three yards and Mychal Rivera would have had a phenomenal game if deuces were wild (two receptions for 22 yards).  Terrelle Pryor certainly didn’t help the cause throwing for only 122 yards and hitting on just 42% of his passes.

But like the boys up at Porcupine Creek, there’s gold to be had underneath all this material and tomorrows anew.  We’re getting down to the final weeks of the regular season and every game is crucial from here on out.  Luckily, we’re in the final stretch for bye weeks as well.  Here’s to me hitting on a few of these in the near future.

Week 11 byes: Dallas and St. Louis

Stephen Hill, WR NYJ @ BUF (27% owned)

I realize Hill is owned in almost all of your dynasty leagues, depending on league and roster sizes, but in redraft, he’s probably been sitting on your waiver wire most of the season – if not all of it.  I also recognize he’s been as useful as Mark Sanchez over the past month and a half, but…

Santonio Holmes makes his triumphant return this week against the Buffalo Bills, who give up the second-most points to wide receivers (44.33 points per game).  The return of Holmes is huge for someone like Hill.  He is still very much raw compared to other receivers with his attributes in the league.  He’s always been a developmental player – someone you hoped to count on in year three or four.  It’s been a rough season for him for various reasons, with perhaps the most important being the loss of Holmes in Week Five.

Holmes can keep defenses honest.  He’s not a true #1 wide receiver, but he’ll get the defense’s #1 cornerback when on the field.  When a defense has just Hill, Jeremy Kerley and David Nelson to ‘worry’ about, that can spell disaster for any offense.  They’ve done well to weather the storm, but I expect this offense to be better than mediocre so long as Holmes stays healthy.  Please check the Week 11 injury report following the game.

With Holmes, Hill impressed me the first three weeks.  He caught 13 passes for 233 yards and one touchdown.  Those who drafted or held on to him looked like geniuses.  That was short-lived.  He was injured in the first quarter of Week 4 (concussion) after a huge blow to the head by Titan’s safety, Michael Griffin.  Since then, Hill has just ten receptions for 107 yards and zero touchdowns.  It’s been downright pathetic.  The fact he had just one target against the Saints in Week Nine is peculiar, to say the least.  If the Jet’s offense wants to get going, both Hill and Holmes have to be integral parts of it.

If you’re wondering, Hill has played the most snaps of all the Jet’s wide receivers this season, but Nelson has out-snapped him in the previous two games by ten.  I think (hope) that was mostly due to having more of a veteran presence on the field in games they were in or winning.

As mentioned above, the Bills’ secondary is giving up a gaggle of fantasy points to opposing team’s wide receivers.  With E.J. Manuel back as the starter, the Bills will continue to run a fast-paced offense.  They were #2 in plays per game before Manuel went down with the knee injury, yet have only averaged 27 minutes in time of possession per game this season.  That spells more opportunity for the Jets and their offense as long as the defense can get off the field.

Paydirt Prediction: four receptions for 70 yards and one touchdown

Tiquan Underwood, WR TB vs ATL (4% owned)

Underwood is a ‘Kid’ look-alike from the Hip-Hop/comedy duo, Kid N’ Play – without the sick dance moves, of course.  Tampa Mike Williams is shelved for the season and the Bucs are on their fifteenth starting running back.  RIP, Mike James.

Someone needs to step up for that WR2 spot and Underwood’s my huckleberry.

Since Williams landed on IR, Underwood has seen a massive increase in snaps and received a season-high in targets last week with five.  He caught three of those for 64 yards.  He also caught a touchdown in the previous week against my Seahawks.  Dude’s primed for his Mining card.

The Falcons have been a shell of their former selves in 2013, while the Bucs are starting to play some decent ball.  Like the Bills (mentioned above), the Falcons are just as worse at giving up points to wide receivers.  They currently rank #5 worst, surrendering 41.24 PPR points per game.

Rookie quarterback, Mike Glennon wasn’t shy about throwing the deep ball to Underwood last week, connecting on plays of 30, 17 and 17.  Glennon also targeted him two other times on deep routes as well.  Underwood has big-play ability as evidenced by an aDOT of 15.4 yards.  That number puts him in the company of names like Torrey Smith, Riley Cooper and Rueben Randle.

Let’s face it, there won’t be much defense when these two teams face off and this game could prove to be one of the larger shootouts this weekend.  If there was any a time to add a flyer as a bye week/injury replacement, Underwood’s your dude.

Paydirt Prediction: five receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown

Marcedes Lewis, TE JAC vs ARI (9% owned)

Lewis is healthy again and is up against the Cardinals who have given up the most points to tight ends this season.  He saw six targets last week against the Titans, catching three for 39 yards.  Those numbers certainly don’t pop off the screen, but the fact he played 55 of the 60 total snaps is encouraging.

The Cardinal’s defense has given up a robust 20.77 PPR points to tight ends – almost three more points higher than the #2 ranked defense.

Justin Blackmon is no longer there hogging targets – just weed now – and outside of Cecil Shorts III, there just isn’t any other playmaker the Jags can rely on in the passing game.  Last week, I figured they’d get Denard Robinson more involved, clearly, Blackmon passed his herbatious remedies my way when I conjured up that opinion.

Lewis is having his worst season as a pro due to a calf injury that’s kept him out for most of the season.  He saw his first real action in Week Seven and has received almost all of the tight end reps since.  

It’s difficult to rely on any Jaguar, outside of Shorts, but my gut says Lewis turns in a solid performance this week.  If there were more numbers I could throw at you, I would.  Since there aren’t, I’ll admit this is more of a feeling than anything else.

I won’t give you a prediction on him for the week, but with the Cardinal’s inherent ability of giving up points to tight ends, Lewis will be a fine bye week replacement if you’re a Jason Witten owner.

Paydirt Prediction: none, but if he finds the end zone, I’ll be happy.