Dynasty Stock Market: RB Value

Like in all aspects of society, fantasy football has its fair share of trends. The trends can relate to how owners draft, trade or build a team in general, but they always affect players’ values. Any owner in a dynasty league can tell you that the trend this year is that running backs are being devalued. This phenomenon is occurring for a variety of reasons, and while it’s been a slow moving event, it seems that this year is the pinnacle where nearly all owners are relying on the wide receiver position, along with a few select top quarterbacks and tight ends, rather than their running backs, as has long been the case.

I remember a dozen years ago when I began playing dynasty fantasy football. That was the age of the “stud running back.” It was not unusual to see a first round of a start up draft completely made up of running backs. In fact, I had a startup draft pattern that I rarely strayed from. I began with selecting a running back with my first three picks. In the fourth round, I would strongly consider taking a wide receiver, but would also ponder adding a fourth running back before choosing my starting quarterback in the fifth round. Believe or not, this was close to the norm back then. Obviously this draft strategy would be considered rare and foolish now, but back then wide receivers were just…boring.

Many factors can be considered when analyzing when and why this move from stud running back to stud wide receiver really occurred. First, PPR scoring has become more and more common. In fact, many dynasty players refuse to play in leagues that are not PPR. I’m not sure why PPR leagues originated, but I can only infer that someone was looking for a way to balance out the heavy slant towards the running backs and how they were being valued in fantasy leagues. Therefore, we now play in PPR leagues, tight end premium leagues and two quarterback or super flex leagues. These have become more and more common over the past decade. Another cause for the devaluation of the running back position comes from the NFL and the move towards a committee approach to the running game. The every down, thirty carry running back is an endangered species. In fact, we’ve seen NFL teams themselves devaluing the position. Running backs hit the free agent market for the first time following the expiration of their rookie contract with dreams of dollar signs, they more often than not, those dreams go unfulfilled and they must settle for less than they think they are worth. Finally, we’ve seen this trend play itself out in the NFL draft. In the 2013 NFL draft, for the first time ever, no running back was selected in the first round and draftniks are already predicting no back will be selected on day one in next spring’s draft either. Look at how the number of running backs drafted early, as well as total backs selected in each draft has dropped over the years:

Clearly, the way NFL coaches, general managers and owners value the running back position has drastically changed over the past thirty years.

Finally, one other change in the landscape of play calling in the league has had a major impact on the running game and how backs are used. The NFL is now called a passing league and many of the most competitive teams are famously built to pass the ball and score points. The average passing yards per team has increased nearly fifteen percent over the past ten years, while the average rushing yards per team have decreased by five percent. In short, all statistics would support the increased focus on the passing game. That doesn’t always mean fewer touches for the running backs though. More and more, teams are looking for a back that can not only carry the ball, but catch the ball out of the backfield. This is where dynasty owners really need to pay close attention, as the players who are actively used as receivers have been greatly gaining value.

Fantasy Impact:

So, how does all of this affect the plan dynasty owners should be following to craft a champion? Before we can fully answer that question, let’s look at some more data about how some running backs are being valued and what type of production they are giving owners for that value.

Here are the top twelve running backs, according to August ADP data for start-up dynasty drafts. I’ve included their August ADP and their current rank in PPR scoring formats.

On the inverse, here’s a look at the current top twelve running backs and where they were selected in our August drafts, on average.

From this data, we see that one-third, four of the twelve running backs being drafted with the expectation of finishing as a RB1 have lived up to their draft status. Three other backs, along with aging veteran Frank Gore, were being drafted as RB2s and have outperformed their ADP. That leaves another one-third who has been true surprises thus far in the season. Those four, Knowshon Moreno, Fred Jackson, Danny Woodhead and Pierre Thomas all rank among the top twelve running backs in receptions. More specifically, Woodhead and Thomas are among the top three in that category. Looking at the other players on this list, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Giovani Bernard and Reggie Bush also can be found among the top twelve receiving backs in the game. That leads me to the conclusion that if a running back is going to surprise us, he’s likely to do so thanks to his heavy involvement in the passing game. The funny thing is, outside of Moreno, who is a key member of the Broncos’ record setting offense, these surprise players have not really gained much dynasty value. Woodhead, Thomas and Jackson can still be found far down the running back ranks or even more current ADP data, which we’ll get to later.

Let’s get even more specific and look at the falling value of many of the running backs that were drafted to be cornerstones of dynasty teams. Not only did I conduct the off-season dynasty mocks in order to find average draft position data, but I have also put together two series of in-season dynasty mocks to gain a better understanding of the changing value of players throughout the season. Changes in values can always be expected from month to month, season to season, but the huge swings in value in a relatively short period of time are unprecedented.

As you can see, of the top twenty-four running backs drafted in August, only four are gaining value, according to ADP data. The other twenty players have lost value for a variety of reasons, including age, injury and disappointing play. Regardless of the reason, this shows us that the running back position as a whole is at its low point when it comes to dynasty value. While there are a few examples of lower ranked players rising in value, running backs overall are being drafted later and later.

Here’s a breakdown of how many players make up the first three rounds of the past three series of mocks (August, Mid-season 1 & mid-season 2). Again, these are the top thirty-six players according to ADP.

From this chart, again, we see that the running back position as a whole is losing value for many of the reasons already discussed. Quarterbacks have basically maintained their early round value, while the breakout campaigns of tight ends Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas have doubled the number of tight ends selected in the all-important early rounds. The real story comes from the running back and wide receiver position though. The number of running backs being selected amongst the top thirty-six has been nearly cut in half, while the wide receivers have greatly increased.

Takeaway:

As I mentioned earlier, I don’t see many impact running backs entering the league in the coming year, though college players like Lache Seastrunk and Melvin Gordon have the potential to become immediate starters. Also, the use of running backs in the receiving game and the running-back-by-committee are aspects of the game that will not e changing anytime soon. We can expect at least another year just like this year before we see some minor changes with some high impact young running backs expected to enter the league in 2015.

As I participate in startup drafts in the following months, I will be avoiding running backs even more than usual, knowing I can build around the stability and longer career spans of the wide receiver position and players like Woodhead and Thomas can be had much later, while playing a major role in PPR leagues.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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