Dynasty Mythbusters: Ray Rice
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years, one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The dynasty mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite TV shows – it’s just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
Instead of looking at a player that suddenly broke out as I have in most weeks, I want to look at the other direction like I did earlier in the year with Trent Richardson, I’m going to take a moment to look at another player who was projected as a top running back this year and has fallen well short, none other than the formerly reliable Ray Rice. Rice is currently outside the top 25 running backs in most PPR leagues and even lower in standard leagues, with only two games on the season over 12 points in PPR leagues. Is this just a bad year or is it the start of the end for the once great fantasy asset?
Ray Rice, RB BAL
Stats through Week Ten: 115 carries for 289 yards (2.51 YPC) and three touchdowns, 33 receptions for 161 yards. One game missed due to injury.
Current Production Projected: 216 carries for 542 yards and 5.6 touchdowns, 62 receptions for 302 yards.
For the last four years, Rice has been firmly entrenched near the very top of the fantasy football rankings, not just at his position, but as an overall player. This has been especially true in PPR leagues. He has topped 1,600 yards from scrimmage, posted more than 60 receptions, had over 4.0 yards per carry, and scored at least six touchdowns in each of those last four seasons – that’s over 250 points in a standard PPR league as a minimum, which is typically top six running back territory. Considering Rice has topped those numbers in most seasons, we are definitely talking about a player who has been elite for numerous years.
His history is a sharp contrast to his eight games so far this season. While his receptions are on a reasonable pace when compared to the past, at this rate his yardage is barely going to reach half of his lowest total since he took over as the starter in Baltimore. That isn’t just a decline, it is falling off of a cliff! The worst part of it all is that at 26 years old (he turns 27 in January), Rice should be just entering his prime. Historically speaking, most running backs peak at the ages of 26, 27, and 28. That means this should be the time to be cashing in on everything that Rice can do for your team, not to have him be a major disappointment that is likely sinking your season.
The question is of course if this is an aberration we can expect to go away or if Rice has already played out the best parts of his career. There have been people on both sides of the argument with a wide assortment of reasons. I’ll do my best to sift through the information and give you another perspective on one of the more puzzling occurrences of the 2013 season.
The Good: We all know Rice is a true NFL talent and one of the best pass catching running backs in the league, making him PPR gold. He is a true three down running back who can shoulder the load and rarely needs to come off the field. He has good size and has been extremely durable, missing only one game in the last five years. As I mentioned earlier, he is only 26 years old, which normally means 2-3 more seasons of elite production can be expected.
There have been some major issues along the Ravens’ offensive line. While this isn’t good news for this year, it could explain part of the issue and shed a positive light on his long term outlook. This is partially evident by the fact his teammate and highly valued backup Bernard Pierce is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry, which is almost as bad as Rice’s average. In short, it isn’t just Rice who is struggling behind the Ravens’ line.
The Bad: When you look back at the last four years for Ray Rice, you see a running back who has been given one of the heaviest workloads in the entire league. Here is a breakdown of those touches over that time:
|
Regular Season |
Post-Season |
Overall |
|||
|
Year |
Rushes |
Receptions |
Rushes |
Receptions |
Touches |
|
2009 |
254 |
78 |
35 |
9 |
376 |
|
2010 |
307 |
63 |
29 |
12 |
411 |
|
2011 |
291 |
76 |
42 |
5 |
414 |
|
2012 |
257 |
61 |
84 |
8 |
410 |
That’s a grand total of 1,611 touches over the course of the last four seasons prior to this one or 403 touches per year. For reference, that isn’t much behind the pace of slightly bigger Arian Foster, who has 414 touches per season. The major difference is Foster only did it for three years, not four. Rice has been one of the most overworked running backs for the past few years and some say it has caught up to him. Has his massive workload shortened his career and caused him to hit his decline a few years early?
When watching him run with the ball this year, you can see he just doesn’t look right. Not only does he seem slower and lacking in power, but the lateral agility and burst through the hole seem to be almost non-existent. If I didn’t know better, I would think Rice was a post-prime running back like Steven Jackson or Willis McGahee. Rice just doesn’t seem like the same running back he was over the last four years, regardless of the offensive line play.
The Ugly Truth: On the season, Rice hasn’t topped 3.4 yards per carry, nor has he managed a run longer than 14 yards this season in any game. These are very unusual numbers for Rice. The offensive line is playing terribly for the Ravens, but people that think that is the entire reason for the struggles of Rice aren’t digging too deeply into the issue or looking at it with rose colored glasses. Rice is going down on first contact almost every time. In fact, he has had multiple games this season with single digit numbers in the yards after contact column. The lack of elusiveness and tackle breaking ability is a definite cause for concern that extends way beyond the poor offensive line play he has had to deal with this year.
Maybe it is a lingering injury? Rice did have a hip flexor strain earlier in the year that resulted in him missing a game, but he claimed to be over that injury several weeks ago. Team doctors have also said he is just fine and he hasn’t even been on the injury report since week four. Unless there is a larger, unreported injury he and the team are trying to hide, that can’t be used as an alibi either.
Truth be told, there really isn’t any other explanation for the sudden drop off in Rice’s production. The line is bad, but there is more to it than that. There has been a noticeable decline in his abilities and I’m not sure he will ever be the same that he was over the previous four seasons. It really does seem like the massive workload over those seasons has caught up with him.
The only silver linings to all of this might be that Pierce is also struggling this season and Rice has a fairly reasonable salary over the next few years thanks to a front loaded contract that he signed. I’m not worried too much about him being cut outright thanks to that contract, but that doesn’t mean he is out of the woods. After week 10, Rice has 115 carries to Pierce’s 93 carries and it wouldn’t surprise me to see even more of a committee emerge, especially if Pierce gets hot over the tail end of the season. With the way things have been going, Pierce could very easily end up being the leading rusher for the Ravens this year.
In terms of a fantasy future, if you can find someone that is still willing to give you close to RB1 value for Rice, I think you need to take it. At this point, Rice is little more than a flex play for this season and might not ever be more than that in future years if a full blown committee emerges. It is sad to cut ties with someone who has likely led your team for the past few years, but it might be time to say your good byes before the name recognition wears off entirely. Hoping for a score against the Bears in week 11 might be the best case to help you get some value for the formerly elite running back, but I think it is time to move him if you can get something worth your while.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
