Bye Week Scouting Report: Kansas City, New England, Cleveland, NY Jets

Four teams are off in week ten.  Three of them had top-ten picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, but the four of them have combined for a 25-11 record so far in 2014.

Kansas City Chiefs

Typically when a team is undefeated this late in the season, their franchise is bursting with fantasy contributors.  That certainly isn’t the case in Kansas City. Outside of Jamaal Charles, a case could be made that the team’s defense is the most noteworthy asset to fantasy owners in 2013. Charles leads all running backs in fantasy scoring per game in both PPR and standard scoring leagues.  He’s currently third in the league in rushing yards (725) and fourth in rushing touchdowns (6).  He’s also second among running backs to only Danny Woodhead in receptions (47) and receiving yards (389).

Most importantly, Charles has been the most consistent fantasy producer at his position to this point in the season.  He hasn’t had a game without at least 96 yards from scrimmage and he’s reached 120 total yards in six of nine games.  He’s also scored in seven games.

Although he’s handled his incredible workload very well, some are starting to become leery of the amount of touches Andy Reid has given Charles.  Coming into the season, he’d never handled the ball more than 325 times in any season.  His 217 touches through nine games put him on pace to handle it 385 times this season.  Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect anything to change for Charles’ workload or production.  However the wear-and-tear is building every time he touches the ball.

It’s hard to find words that accurately describe the Kansas City passing game.  Perhaps the word “boring” is most fitting.

Quarterback Alex Smith has definitely fit that description from the perspective of fantasy owners.  He ranks near the bottom of the league in completion percentage (59.7%) and yards-per-attempt (6.09) and is one of the worst in the league when it comes to throwing the ball downfield.  Only 18 of his 315 (5.7%) of his passes have been intended for targets at least 20 yards downfield, and he’s only completed six of those passes.

Worst of all, Smith is dragging down the fantasy value of his receivers as well.  Dwayne Bowe has caught 33 passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns on 56 targets and hardly qualifies as a WR4 at this point.  His dynasty owners are so low on his fantasy value at this point, that it may be worth considering trading for him.  If the Chiefs make a change at quarterback next season (which could happen), Bowe could put up the numbers that made him a high-end WR2 in past seasons.

Donnie Avery (47 targets, 27 receptions, 396 yards, 1 TD) and Dexter McCluster (42, 25, 262, 1) are only worth roster spots in very deep dynasty leagues at this point.

Tight end Anthony Fasano has little fantasy value outside of two-tight end, standard scoring leagues.  He’s a quality red-zone threat but won’t get consistent targets, so his upside is very limited.

Rookie Knile Davis is an interesting dynasty stash to many.  He hasn’t had an opportunity to contribute this season but many people point to his impressive 4.37 second forty-yard-dash at the combine as an indication that he could be an impact player.  It should be mentioned he entered the league with documented fumbling issues and unimpressive agility and pass catching skills.  His fantasy value is directly tied to Charles’ health and if the Chiefs’ starter missed any time, it’s very unlikely he’d make even half the impact Charles does on a weekly basis.  If the Charles owner offered me anything useful or a future rookie draft pick, I’d trade Davis.

A nice trade target for dynasty owners is rookie tight end Travis Kelce, who’s on injured reserve with a knee injury.  Although he had some trouble blocking before the injury, he has good hands and could become a regular target in Reid’s tight end friendly offense as early as 2014.

New England Patriots

Tom Brady was visibly frustrated on many occasions over the first eight weeks of the season.  So were his fantasy owners.  In week nine, there was no frustration.  Brady completed 23-of-33 passes for 432 yards and four touchdowns against the Steelers and the Patriots offense looked better than it had all season.

Overall, Brady’s completed only 57.1% of his passes, which would be a career low, and is on pace to throw only 23 touchdown passes, but his owners should expect much better numbers by the end of the season.  While he won’t throw for four scores every week and shouldn’t be considered a top-five option, fantasy owners should anticipate Brady being a weekly top-ten quarterback going forward.

With the improvement of Brady, fantasy owners should also expect a resurgence of his receivers.  Rob Gronkowski has been a huge addition to the New England offense since he returned to the lineup in week seven against the Jets.  In just three weeks, Gronk’s been targeted 32 times, catching 19 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown.  Most impressively, he’s only ran 83 routes in those three games, which means he’s been targeted on 38.5% of the routes he’s run and is averaging a remarkable 3.42 yards-per-route-run, which is better than any wide receiver or tight end this season.  In the off-season, I wrote about the window for dynasty owners to acquire Gronk.  That window is closed.  He’s a top-two fantasy tight end going forward.

Although Julian Edelman leads the Patriots in targets (72), receptions (49), and receiving yards (473), his fantasy value is limited strictly to PPR leagues.  Both of his touchdown receptions came in week one and his production has fallen off over the last two weeks.  He’s worth a roster spot in PPR leagues, but only as a WR5.

Many anticipated Danny Amendola to have trouble staying on the field when he signed with the Patriots in March.  That couldn’t be truer through nine weeks.  He’s missed four games due to injury and even when in the lineup, he’s been unreliable.  In the five games he’s played, he has 23 receptions for 296 yards and a touchdown, but most of his damage was done in either week one (10 catches, 104 yards, 0 TD) or week nine (4, 122, 1).  Going forward, fantasy owners should look at Amendola as a high-risk, high-reward gamble.  He could go down at any time, so I’d be looking to sell him coming off his nice game against the Steelers.

Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins entered the year as equally intriguing prospects, but Dobson’s the one flashing the most potential of late.  He has 31 receptions for 454 yards and four touchdowns on 59 targets this season, and nine catches for 190 yards and three scores on 14 targets over the last two weeks.  Most importantly, he played 119 of the Patriots’ 145 snaps (82%) over that time. Thompkins on the other hand, played only 14 of 68 snaps (20%) in week eight and was a healthy scratch in week nine.  Although he has 23 catches for 334 yards and four touchdowns on 55 targets, all indications are that the Patriots will rely more on Dobson going forward.  Thompkins is still a nice developmental prospect in dynasty leagues, but Dobson has a WR3 upside for the rest of the season and could develop into a solid WR2.

The Patriots’ running game has been productive, but certainly not predictable.

Stevan Ridley lost the trust of the coaching staff with his fumbling problems in week one and hasn’t earned back the full-time role since, although he’s averaged 17 carries for 85 yards per game over the last four weeks and scored six touchdowns over that span.  He’s a borderline RB2 at this point, depending on how the Patriots use Shane Vereen when he returns from injury after the bye. Vereen is an interesting player going forward.  He’s a jack-of-all-trades tailback that has the potential to make an immediate fantasy impact.  Expect him to cut into Ridley’s playing time late in the season and become an asset to his fantasy owners, especially in PPR leagues.  Of the two of them, I’d rather have Vereen. Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount only have fantasy value if both Ridley and Vereen are in the doghouse or injured.

Other players worth mentioning for dynasty owners include Josh Boyce, a speedster receiver who’s struggled with injuries, and backup quarterback Ryan Mallett, who’s bound to get an opportunity to play somewhere over the next couple seasons.

Edelman is a free agent after the season.

Cleveland Browns

There are really only a few position players on the Browns’ roster worth mentioning in a scouting report for the rest of this season and beyond, but two of them have the potential to be top-three options at their positions for years to come.

Wide receiver Josh Gordon ranks 11^th among wide outs in standard scoring leagues and 15^th in PPR leagues.  On the season, he has 35 catches for 626 yards and three touchdowns on 63 targets while missing the first two games of the season for violating the NFL’s drug policy and playing with three different quarterbacks.

Dynasty owners should remember Gordon’s one violation away from a yearlong suspension, so there’s a certain amount of risk that goes along with him.  But his upside is that of Brandon Marshall or Andre Johnson and he’s only 22 years old.  He’s the type of player that dynasty owners should build their teams around, as long as he can keep his head on straight.

The other noteworthy player from Cleveland is tight end Jordan Cameron.  The third year tight end from USC has caught 50 passes for 600 yards and six touchdowns and, outside of week nine against the Chiefs, has looked very impressive.  He’s a top-five tight end in both PPR and standard scoring leagues and there’s no reason to think that will change going forward.

The Browns’ running game leaves much to be desired.  Willis McGahee is a plodder at this point in his career, averaging only 2.6 yards-per-carry, and is unlikely to be in the league next season. Chris Ogbonnaya, on the other hand, has carried the ball 19 times for 101 yards (5.3 YPC) and added 28 receptions for 207 yards and two touchdowns.  He’s a candidate to get more touches down the stretch and could become a flex option for those in PPR leagues. If Cleveland is out of contention later in the season, Fozzy Whittaker could get a chance to show what he can do.  He’s only touched the ball 14 times so far this season, but should be on the radar of deep league dynasty owners.

The rest of the Browns’ roster consists of little fantasy relevance.  Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden will be backups in 2014, Greg Little can’t catch the ball for the Browns or your fantasy team and Davone Bess is nothing more than a WR5.

Brian Hoyer is worth a roster spot for those with deep rosters or an unused injured reserve spot.  He looked good in the two-plus games he played, completing 59% of his passes for 615 yards and five touchdowns.  Although the Browns are likely to draft a franchise quarterback, Hoyer is expected to enter the offseason as the starting quarterback, and stranger things have happened than him being the starter in week one next September.  He’s worth having around until we know what will happen in Cleveland, as long as it doesn’t cost you anything.

Charles Johnson is another name worth mentioning.  He spent the preseason with the Packers and started the year on their practice squad before signing with Cleveland.  He went on injured reserve with a torn ACL however, after the Browns realized he had the preexisting injury.  He showed some flashes of potential while in Green Bay, but has much to prove before making a fantasy impact.

New York Jets

The Jets entered the season with many question marks.  They had a quarterback controversy, their head coach was on the hot seat and it could have been argued that they had the worst collection of position players in the league.  Fast forward to week ten, and the Jets are 5-4 and coming off a nice win against the Saints.

Geno Smith has looked good at times, but has been inconsistent overall.  He’s thrown eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions while completing just 58.1% of his passes, and has been sacked 30 times which is the third most in the league. One bright note for Smith has been his deep passing.  He’s completed 18 of 40 passes (47.5%) with the intended target at least 20 yards downfield, which ranks among the league leaders, although he has thrown four interceptions on such throws. As the season progresses, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Smith to be anything more than a low-end QB2 at any point.  He does have the potential to be a top-15 fantasy quarterback over the next year, but dynasty owners should temper their expectations.

The Jets’ running game has been impressive, ranking 11^th in the league with 129 yards per game on the ground.  The problem that fantasy owners have encountered is that nobody knows who’s going to get the carries from week to week. Bilal Powell leads the team in carries with 109 and rushing yards with 414 and has a rushing touchdown.  He’s also contributed 19 catches for 157 yards, but he hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game over the last four.  Chris Ivory has carried the ball 92 times for 369 yards and a touchdown, but he’s only caught one pass on the season and he lost yardage on that reception. Powell’s more valuable in PPR leagues, but neither can be depended on as a weekly RB2 due to the inconsistent touches they’re getting.  Due to his big game against his former team, the Saints, this may be the best opportunity for dynasty owners to sell Ivory.  Of the two, I’d rather own Powell, but that’s partially due to Ivory’s injury history.

The lack of weapons in the passing game has also been a problem for the Jets.  Santonio Holmes has missed five games due to a hamstring injury, although he’s expected to be back after the team’s bye.  He’s still only 29 years old, and could return as a WR4 once healthy.  If Smith improves before next season, he could put up WR3 numbers. Jeremy Kerley has done everything he could to fill the void left by Holmes, but he’s been limited by the quarterback play as well.  He’s caught 28 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns this season, but he suffered a dislocated left elbow in week nine and is expected to miss a few weeks.  He’s a WR5 at this point. Second year wide out Stephen Hill has all the tools, but hasn’t turned into the kind of pro that many dynasty owners hoped he would after being drafted in the second round last year.  He’s 6’4 and 215 pounds, but has only 10 catches for 107 yards and no touchdowns over the last six games.  He still has WR2 upside, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect that kind of production this season.

Tight end Jeff Cumberland has been a pleasant surprise for many fantasy owners, but is unlikely to make a contribution to fantasy teams going forward.  Kellen Winslow will return from his suspension for using performance enhancing drugs after the bye, and will most likely take over as the team’s starting tight end.  He’s nothing more than a TE2 going forward.

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Dan Meylor

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Dan is a jack of all trades but master of none and specializes in salary cap and contract leagues.He has far too many hobbies (including writing the article you just read), is a die-hard Packers fan and can't wait to introduce his young sons to fantasy football.

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