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Ken Kelly

moreno

If you look up the word “enigma” in the dictionary, you’ll likely see some type of description that reads, “a puzzling or inexplicable occurrence or situation.”  You should also see a picture of a certain Denver Broncos running back named Knowshon Moreno. If you’ve been in dynasty leagues or just playing fantasy football over the last five or six years, that name likely brings up a feeling of queasiness or thoughts of despair as Moreno has been a constant source of disappointment since being drafted 12th overall by the Broncos in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Until now.

Moreno has been a revelation this season for Denver as he’s surprisingly taken a firm stranglehold on the starting running back position and produced 456 rushing yards (on 4.2 yards per carry), 29 catches, 287 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns in the first half of the season. While he still needs a healthy dose of carries to be effective, he’s been a surprise contributor in dynasty leagues as he’s averaging the third most points for running backs in many PPR leagues, ahead of more heralded players like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and many more. It’s been a season of surprises for Moreno wrapped in a career full of them. When Moreno was drafted, he was supposed to be a dynamic playmaker who could take the pressure off the quarterback and bring a dynamic versatility to the Denver offense. Unfortunately, injuries and ineffectiveness have had Moreno in and out of the lineup and dog house throughout his entire career. When Willis McGahee went down with an injury last season, Moreno was re-inserted into the starting lineup and has thrived ever since. In the process, he’s held off more sought after dynasty prospects like Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball.

So, now what?

There’s little doubt Moreno can help any dynasty owner in their quest for a dynasty league title this year. If you’re a contender, you ride this out for as long as possible. If not, you have a very important decision to make. Do you keep Moreno or attempt to move him now while his value is at its highest? In my mind, there are three reasons to sell.

First, Moreno is obviously benefitting from having Peyton Manning at the helm of the Denver offense. With Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Eric Decker catching passes, there’s simply no way for a defense to focus their attention on the running game. Moreno isn’t seeing anyone stack the box against him and likely won’t as long as he has the Hall of Famer throwing passes all over the field. The question in dynasty leagues is how long that will last. Manning is certainly playing on a year-to-year basis and while he probably has 2-3 more seasons left in him, there’s no guarantee that happens. If Brock Osweiler is the quarterback, things won’t be quite so easy for Moreno.

Second, the Broncos still have talent on the roster behind him. Ball has been disappointing this season for sure, but he’s shown flashes at times. He’s also starting to get more carries as the season has moved on. One thing to remember is John Fox simply doesn’t play rookie running backs and is loyal to veteran players – that’s worked in Moreno’s favor this season. Ronnie Hillman is likely, well, Ronnie Hillman. However, CJ Anderson is another player to watch and he actually may be the biggest threat to Moreno in the future. The point is the Broncos have other players to mix in moving forward, leaving Moreno’s future as the lone work horse up in the air. In fact, Denver has already said they want to save Moreno for the stretch run and want to get others more involved to spell him more frequently – we saw that last game when Ball was used more and received just three fewer carries than Moreno, including three of the four on the goal line. Believe it or not, as good as Moreno has been, he’s still not on pace for 1,000 yards rushing this season, so it’s not as if he’s set the world on fire – the touchdowns are inflating his stats and those are always unpredictable.

Finally, we’ve been down this road with Moreno before. While there’s no doubting this is the best he’s played in his career, he hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy for an extended period of time. The Broncos can exercise an option year for Moreno at the end of this season, but it would cost them around $5 million to do so. Will they use that on a player who hasn’t been durable throughout his tenure? Even if they do, Knowshon is a free agent in 2015 and it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens then. At that point, he’ll be 28 years old and it’s hard to say what the injuries will have done to his effectiveness.

In short, Moreno has been a startup dynasty draft gem this season and one who should help dynasty owners hoist the trophy at the end of the year. If you held on to him, snapped him up off waivers or drafted him late knowing he had a chance, congratulations to you. The advice we’d give you is pretty simple – evaluate your team right now. If you’re realistically looking to win this season, hold tight. If not, Moreno is a prime trade candidate.  You should be able to land a first round pick or a little more from a contending team thin at the position.

So, what would you do with Moreno? Buy, sell or hold?

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ken kelly