Mining for Paydirt: Week Ten

Chad Scott

robinsonWe’re hitting double digits this weekend as week ten is upon us.  That’ll be two and a half months into the season already, when it feels like only a couple of weeks.  Funny, we at DLF prepare for the season year-round – the off-season seems so long and monotonous.  The staff here hit on more players than they miss, and that’s all you can really ask for in a game where no one truly knows everything (anything).

When you look back on weeks – even seasons – you wonder, “How did I miss on that player so badly?”  You go over situations you loved that now seem like train wrecks.  When you get down to the brass tacks of all these things, I think DLF has been huge for not only my “fantasy IQ”, but for just about all our readers, as well.

When I sit down to write these articles, I look at matchups, trends and stats – but there are plenty of times I go with my gut.  After all, my Buddha belly knows what’s best for me.

I’ve been really hit or miss in Mining for Paydirt, but that’s to be expected.  You should consider your fantasy football seasons in the same vein.  You can do all the homework in the world; crunch every statistic known to man – hell, some have even invented new stats/metrics to aid us in our decision making.  But in the end, this is very much a luck-based game we play.  The better you understand that, the better off you and your blood pressure will be.

Let’s dive into it…

Week Ten byes: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, NY Jets

Make sure to get those players out of your lineups.  Don’t be that guy…

Denard Robinson, RB JAC @ TEN (10% owned)

I think it’s safe to say the allure of Robinson’s OW status has worn away in most 12 team leagues.  In fact, his owned percentage has gone down almost every week – and rightfully so.  Those who’ve stashed him might finally have a reason to start the quarterback-turned-wide receiver-turned-running back.

Let’s be honest.  It’s been a downright dreadful year for running backs as a whole and it doesn’t look like anyone – outside the top ten – can be counted on from week to week.

So why Robinson, bruh?

In news that no one outside the filthiest of degenerates care about, Robinson was promoted to the backup running back, behind Maurice Jones-Drew.

Prior to Week Eight, Robinson hadn’t received more than seven snaps in a game (Week One).  Against the 49ers, Robinson received 11 snaps (oh wow, right?), rushing the ball four times for 15 yards – 11 of those yards came after contact.  He also had a 30 yard run called back on a holding call.

Head coach, Gus Bradley, had this to say about Robinson:

“We bumped him up to number two and we’re intrigued by him at the tailback spot.  I would say that we’re going to still continue with that process.”

It was clear the dastardly duo of Justin Forsett and Jordan Todman weren’t working out, despite a few flashes from Todman in the preseason.  I don’t expect Robinson to get a huge bump in carries, but I do expect the Jags to utilize both him and Jones-Drew in the passing game with the loss of Justin Blackmon (suspension).

Last week, the Titans were gashed by rookie, Zac Stacy.  Before that, the 49ers rushed for 153 yards courtesy of Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick.  We know Robinson won’t get the workload the aforementioned names received, but Jones-Drew can’t handle a 30+ touch at this point in his career.

I think we finally get a glimpse of what Robinson can do with a decent amount of opportunities this week.  I’ll miss you this week, Jamaal Charles

Paydirt Prediction: eight carries, 45 yards; two receptions for 35 yards and one touchdown

Mychal Rivera, TE OAK vs NYG (3% owned)

There are three certainties in this world: death, taxes and the New York Giants inability to cover tight ends.  The last one might not be entirely true, but anytime I can get a dig in to our own Jarrett Behar, I take it.

If last week’s drubbing by the Philadelphia Eagles taught us anything, it’s there won’t be much defense to be played come Sunday in New York.

Rivera has been quiet since his week four coming out party against the Washington Redskins.  He caught his first NFL touchdown and we all learned who his hot sister was (Naya Rivera).  She brings much Glee into my life.  Since that week, Rivera has struggled – catching just seven passes for 51 yards.

But playing tight end against the Giants is the equivalent of more cowbell – of course, that theory burned me a few weeks ago when I picked Zach Ertz as a miner of the paydirts.

Here are the facts: They’ve surrendered 15.46 PPR points to tight ends this season; their innate ability to constantly turn the ball over on offense is second to none; and Tom Coughlin hates you and your young, upsidey running backs.

I put this chart out a few weeks ago on how tight ends have performed against the Giants. (Please note: Mike Vick couldn’t make it out of the first quarter in week eight and the Eagles were forced to roll with Pop Warner great, Matt Barkley for the remainder of said game.)

Week

Player

Rec

Yards

TD

1

Jason Witten

8

70

2

2

Julius Thomas

6

47

1

3

Greg Olsen

4

54

0

4

Sean McGrath

5

64

1

5

Brent Celek

3

47

1

6

Marcellus Bennett

6

68

0

7

Kyle Rudolph

3

27

0

On one hand, you could say the Giants have improved against tight ends in their past two contests, but on the other hand, I’m not buying it for the reason mentioned above.  The other reason might be Josh Freeman’s ‘performance’ in the game that shall not be named during a Monday night.

I like Rivera this week because he’s seeing plenty of snaps (52 last week) and plenty of pass routes (36).  He converted all four of his targets for 36 yards last week.  There isn’t anyone threatening his playing time in Oakland (see: Nick Kasa) and the coaching staff seem to dig him.

With Cameron Jordan and Rob Gronkowski on bye and the cesspool made up of waiver wire tight ends in most leagues, Rivera has a chance to shower you with fantasy goodness this week.

Paydirt Prediction: five receptions for 60 yards and one touchdown

That’s it for this week’s Mining for Paydirt, who are YOUR miners this week?