Dynasty Mythbusters: Case Keenum
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
On Sunday night we were all sitting down and watching the Colts take on the Houston Texans. If you’re like me, you shocked to see Andre Johnson put up what would have been his fifth best fantasy week in just the first minute of game time. Fast forward to the end of the first quarter and he had already put together his best fantasy game of the year with three more quarters to play! Figuring out what changed is one of the easiest questions to answer as it is clearly swapping Matt Schaub for Case Keenum at the quarterback position. The much more difficult question is if we can expect more of this from Mr. Keenum or if this was a bit of an anomaly like Nick Foles throwing for seven touchdowns in three quarters.
Case Keenum, QB HOU
Week Nine Statline: 20 completions on 34 attempts for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns. 3 rushes for 26 yards.
The second year player out of the University of Houston went undrafted in the 2012 NFL draft and was later signed as a free agent by the Texans. He has been almost completely off the fantasy radar thanks to what seemed to be a very stable depth chart at the quarterback position at the start of the season with starter Matt Schaub and backup TJ Yates all but carved in stone at their positions. A few weeks in a row with a pick six and a few injuries later and Keenum is suddenly the starter of a team that many picked to be a Super Bowl contender.
Those of you who are college football junkies probably remember Keenum’s college days. He was a part of a lot of news headlines and numerous NCAA records when he had not one, not two, but three seasons of at least 67% completion percentage, 5,000 passing yards and 44 touchdowns. For reference, Andrew Luck maxed out at 3,517 yards and 37 touchdowns, Russell Wilson never topped 3,563 yards or 33 touchdowns and Robert Griffin III had his best season with 4,293 yards and 37 touchdowns. I’m not saying Keenum is at their level in terms of talent, because he isn’t. I’m just trying to put his production into perspective. He has three years that absolutely dwarf the career bests for three of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Of course there are plenty of reasons why Keenum was able to do this in college. The first is the extremely pass heavy spread offense the University of Houston used during his time there inflated his stats. The second is the University of Houston is a FBS school and often plays teams that are down a few notches from the normal division I teams that we all know and love. Houston often had a mismatch in terms of talent because for one reason or another they had a much higher level of talent. This is evident by the fact that Keenum did lead his Cougars in a win over the fifth ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys in 2009 and the University of Houston was often in the top 25 over the time that Keenum was there.
To sum it all up, Keenum was one of (if not the) most productive college quarterback in recent history while playing on a talented team with a wide open offense that often played against inferior talents. He is now thrust into the starting role on a talented NFL team. What does all of that mean for his future in the NFL and on fantasy rosters?
The Good: As mentioned earlier, one of the biggest plusses for Keenum is he has a lot of experience throwing for a lot of yards and touchdowns. He knows how to get it done. In addition to his production, he has a big, accurate arm with a gunslinger mentality. He definitely isn’t afraid to toss the ball downfield or shoot for small windows. He has a very quick release and does a nice job of scanning the defense to pick up incoming blitzes. He makes good decisions which are evident by his over 3.3 touchdowns per interception rate through his entire college career. If you toss out his first year, it shoots up to over 3.9 touchdowns per interception.
The Bad: While some might sight his preference to take a shot downfield instead of taking the safer check down as a minus, I’m not sure it really is a bad thing. It might lead to turnovers or cutting a drive short, but it also leads to the big touchdowns such as the ones we saw on Sunday to Andre Johnson. It just makes him a bit boom or bust, but that is more a style preference. The biggest knock against Keenum is the same knock that we have heard against Drew Brees and Russell Wilson – he’s short for a quarterback. He is right around 6’0” tall which makes him one of the shorter quarterbacks in the league. While it isn’t something that automatically eliminates him as a prospect, it does mean he has a few more challenges than some others. Combine his size, lack of experience under center and questions about how valid his college production is and you end up with a player that goes undrafted.
The Ugly Truth: Keenum has already shown us he can be productive in the NFL. The question is if he’ll be able to keep up his week nine pace once NFL teams get a little bit of tape on him or if he’ll revert back to his week seven performance of 271 yards but only one touchdown. With only two career starts in the NFL, it is fair to assume that his connection with his teammates will continue to improve and that NFL teams will start to get more tape on the young quarterback. Chances are the two will cancel each other out.
Keenum has already shown he will throw the ball downfield whenever he has a chance and with people like Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins down the field, it is likely the majority of those shots will be brought in for big gains. The general concern with a quarterback that does this is that they turn the ball over a lot. Keenum has shown over the years in college as well as the past two starts in the NFL that he is very accurate down the field and on the rare instances that he does miss he misses in a place where no one can catch it. The turnovers shouldn’t be a major concern with him.
While watching Keenum, it is hard not to notice he does an excellent job of moving in the pocket and making sure that he can extend plays with his legs so that his receivers have time to get open. Often times, this takes the form of bootlegs or roll outs which have the added advantage of getting Keenum out of the pocket where he has a better field of vision down the field, eliminating the disadvantage that his height poses. I have some concern that once defenses get enough tape they will start to notice the tendencies and signs that precede these plays and it will open Keenum up to some big hits. Given his size and injury history, that is a bit of a concern for his longevity.
Overall, I think Keenum has the skill set to be an above average, but not great NFL starting quarterback. He needs to improve his short and intermediate game to become more of a complete player. As long as he can stay healthy, I like his chances of keeping the starting job both this season and into the future. The main feather in his cap is that he does a good job protecting the ball with smart decisions and good ball placement. That is something that has been a downfall of Schaub this season. The massive difference in salaries for the cap strapped Texans could also push the decision Keenum’s way. In terms of fantasy, Keenum could be a very solid QB2 long term with a chance to push into the bottom end of the top ten quarterbacks down the road. For this season, he might make for a solid but not great fill in with all of the injuries to quarterbacks like Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford and most recently, Aaron Rodgers.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
