What We’ve Learned: NFC Part Two

Jeff Haverlack Posted On October 30, 2013

Now at the half-way point in 2013′s NFL season, we’ve learned a fair amount that fantasy coaches can use to their benefit.

In the second part of our four-part series, I will be looking at each team and giving you my thoughts and assessments in hopes of providing insight to leverage. It could be that 2012 and previous seasons were just too long ago for my old mind, but 2013 has been noteworthy on many, many fronts.

From young players establishing themselves far sooner than expected, to a deluge of season ending injuries to some of the ‘old guard’ not living up to expectations, 2013 has been anything but routine.

Let’s finish up the NFC:

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

There a dents in the armor in the land of Cheeseheads. Aaron Rodgers ranks as the QB6 having already experienced his bye week and with a dwindling corps. of receivers, mystery surrounding the rest of the season remains. Rodgers is still an every-week starter and a top five quarterback to own.

Top receiving threat Randall Cobb is done for the season and James Jones is still recovering from a knee ailment. JerMichael Finley, on the rise in 2013, now finds his future rather cloudy after suffering a spinal bruise. I’m still a fan of Finley and would seek to perform a buy-low as a potential TE2. His longer term status has been defined as “when” and not “if”. 2013 may not see his return, but he’ll be in pads next year at the latest. Receiver Jordy Nelson continues to be a fine WR2 and is seeing increased targets as a result of the injury woes around him. His value is holding steady.

At running back it appears as though Eddie Lacy is coming into his own and would vie as the top rookie runner off the board if a rookie draft was held today. I still have Giovanni Bernard ranked more highly but Lacy is showing that he can carry the load. Now only if Green Bay was truly a real believer in the run-game. That said, they’ve shown much more balance of late. The only other back of note here is the oft-injured James Starks who has shown the ability to find seams and finish runs with authority. It’s a Starks that I expected long ago, but without the injury concern. It may just be a matter of time before he’s down again. Should Starks steer clear of injury over the next four weeks, he may be a deep sleeper for 2014. Either way, he’s a last-roster-spot player.

Detroit Lions

Matt Stafford has quietly ascended to the QB2 in fantasy. He’s putting up consistently good numbers and his stock is on the move. I’ve never been a big Stafford fan but I’m beginning to see the consistency that I look for in my quarterbacks. I’ll be moving him up if he can continue to post numbers over the next four weeks. Better yet for Stafford is that he’s showing this consistency without a clear WR2.

Speaking of receivers, while it appeared that Calvin Johnson may have taken a step back early in the year, he’s been a monster of late and is clearly the top receiver in fantasy. Nothing else to know here. The big blow has been dealt, yet again, to Ryan Broyles. Broyles ruptured his Achilles’ tendon and is done for the year. Each season, Broyles has been touted as a sleeper candidate and I’m now suggesting he be dropped in all leagues. There are simply more deserving players to be rostered. What we know about Broyles is that there is just something about his body that will likely never allow him to be a consistent producer in fantasy. Move along.

Arguably, the Lions have the best one-two punch at running back. Both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell fill their respective roles well and can produce week over week. Bush is the first back to own here but Bell makes a capable handcuff and can be owned even without Bush on the roster. Bell has been impressive between the tackles and it’s impossible not to like his style of running. I’d like to see him get a chance to start elsewhere in 2014 as he’s a free agent but look for Detroit to lock up the aging (27) runner with one final contract. He doesn’t have much mileage on his legs.

At tight end, I’m dropping Brandon Pettigrew in value, late as it is. He can still be rostered but he’s a low-end TE2 with the emergence of so many other names at the position. Joseph Fauria anyone? Don’t believe the hype.

Chicago Bears

Just when you thought it was okay to start Jay Cutler, he lets us all down by tearing his groin. Look for him to start again in week 12 at the earliest. He was putting up QB1 stats while healthy and I had added him in multiple leagues as my QB2. I can’t be comfortable with Cutler as anything but a QB2, but there’s no denying his upside.

Leading to Cutler’s improvement in fantasy has been the play of second year player, Alshon Jeffery. He’s the WR14 in PPR formats currently and with his bye week behind him. Looking forward, there’s little doubt that Jeffery will be appearing in the top twenty of my receiver rankings for 2014. He’s got the size and speed dynamic that I like and has capable hands in all routes. He’s too inconsistent to be a WR1 or even a high-end WR2 but I’d add him as an upside WR3 going into 2014, his third year as a receiver. For risk-taking coaches, he makes for an interesting acquisition. Brandon Marshall is aging but still extremely capable. He’ll be 30 when the 2014 season kicks-off, but he’s got the talent and durability for at least another three years, perhaps four. Seek to buy him if you’re competing and he’s taking up space on a team that isn’t competitive.

Matt Forte‘ continues to be a quality runner. Michael Bush is off all my lists after showing promise for too many years but rarely delivering. I’m quietly excited about Michael Ford. His size and speed are enough to be noteworthy if given an opportunity. Stash his name and revisit the Bears often to time a pick-up if you get the chance. At tight end, it appears as though I was wrong about Martellus Bennett. No knocking his stats when it comes down to it because he is the current TE8 at the position and with his bye week behind him, but I thought he could be sneaky top-five capable. I know, splitting hairs. He’s still a low-end TE1 with upside and a worthy add since many don’t seem to value him highly.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are just the latest team to prove that if you have three (or more) quarterbacks, you don’t have one. Enter Josh Freeman. Exit Christian Ponder, Matt Cassell … and heck, Josh Freeman again. Not more than a QB3 in the bunch. Stay away.

Adrian Peterson is aging but I’ll never forget the quote from Dr. James Andrews related to Peterson’s knees. Loosely paraphrased: “He’s got the knees of a baby”. This in reference to the wear and tear that the good doctor saw when performing his ACL surgery. Dr. Andrews was astonished at the lack of miles on AP’s knees and this is noteworthy. He’s still the back to own in fantasy and this single quote will be keeping AP at the top of my dynasty back list even into next year. I have him in multiple leagues and haven’t received an offer for him that I deem even close.

The only receiver I want anything to do with is Cordarrelle Patterson. The exciting rookie is electric with the ball in his hands and I’m shocked he hasn’t been seeing more snaps. Greg Jennings is proving that he made a huge mistake in leaving Green Bay (all the while criticizing Aaron Rodgers) and I’ve been extremely disappointed in Jarius Wright. Call it quarterback play or anything else, but I’m not buying any of these guys … including Jerome Simpson, who is all tease. Even the once-rising Kyle Rudolph has been lackluster as perhaps the best true pass-catcher on the team.

Yuck.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

What a difference a year makes, on multiple fronts.

I’m not going to waste much time on Drew Brees. He’s good. He’s really good. And he has years left. Mark Ingram is borderline droppable. You can hang onto him if you wish with the thought that he may find a new team eventually but there’s no smoke here and certainly no fire. Pierre Thomas is aging and can be rostered as an emergency back only. Darren Sproles is the name to own but at 30 years of age, I’m not selling out for him as I’ve seen done in some leagues. Sell him high if you have a team calling that is in the hunt. He still has value as long as you don’t wait too long. One knee injury and his value is in the tank. Sign me up for the rising Khiry Robinson. The soon-to-be 24 year-old back has good size, wiggle and what we’ve learned is what we’ve seen; Robinson is a capable two-down back, perhaps more. We won’t know what he can do out in the passing game until Sproles is out of the picture. But it appears as though the Saints have a good, young, albeit unknown back.

At receiver it’s time to start waving bye-bye to Marques Colston. The 30 year-old receiver is fading quickly and has only one score on the season. He’s dropped to a low-end WR3 with some game-to-game upside but he can’t be counted on. Lance Moore is on the decline as well. He, too, is 30 years old and is largely productive because of the high-octane offense employed by the Saints. Kenny Stills is developing nicely but I’m not a big believer here and would be selling. Call me crazy or what you like but I’d shop him to someone willing to overpay a bit. If I’m not going to get over-payment, I’d sit on my hands in hopes that my assessment is incorrect.

Jimmy Graham. Love him. Keep him. #Winning.

Carolina Panthers

After a somewhat slow start, Cam Newton is starting to assert himself at the position. I’ve seen his name involved in multiple trades of late and I commend the purchasing coaches. He’s the QB10 in fantasy but his value is higher than that. Buy, buy … buy.

Steve Smith is in serious decline and I’m staying the heck away from Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn. LaFell has the size to be a difference maker but he just disappears too much for me to target him at any point. I’m highest on Greg Olsen, a tight end that I feel is under-valued. But thus far into 2013, he’s been inconsistent and no better than a mid-range TE2.

At running back, I’m sour on the entire lot. DeAngelo Williams will not be started by me again unless the zombie apocalypse is upon us and the defense across from him is filled with walkers. Even then, I’d probably start Mike Tolbert. Oh, yes, lest I forget about Jonathan Stewart. I’m not going there. In fact, I’m staying away from the entire Panther offense not named Newton. If I’m pressed, I’ll add Kenjon Barner at the bottom of my roster because I think he’s got ability in that offense. Add him until we know more.

Atlanta Falcons

Who woulda guessed about the Falcons in 2013.

Matt Ryan holds his value regardless of what is happening around him. He sits as the QB9 and that’s pretty impressive given the conditions he’s up against. Roddy White aged quickly and hasn’t been healthy all season. He’ll be dropping out of the top 30 in my rankings, perhaps further. Julio Jones is out for the season with a second fracture to the same foot from two years earlier. Not good. It will be impossible for me to keep him ranked where I have him for 2014, but he won’t fall out of the top ten. Harry Douglas has stepped up big for the grounded Falcons. Out of nowhere. I’m not getting excited nor am I looking to add Douglas but he should be rostered nonetheless …. trade him high if you can, don’t delay.

Tony Gonzalez is in his last ride and has to be wondering why he came back. No one could know what would beset the Falcons in 2014, but he now has to be focusing on retiring in one piece and avoiding injury in the second half. I won’t hold it against him once the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention rather than risk injury. No, I have no desire to add Gonzo’s backup, Levine Toilolo. I’m probably off my rocker but I like what I see out of Drew Davis. I like his size and there’s a swagger about him. Not a cocky swagger but one of confidence and maturity beyond his years. I’m adding him where I can.

At running back, Steven Jackson is all but done. He’s not healing quickly (never has) and now at 30 years of age, there’s little reason to add him. You probably need to hold him but what we’ve learned about Jackson this year is all too similar and there’s little mystery left. His remaining job appears to be to suck any value out of Jacquizz Rodgers, who looked to be Sproles-like in his role and ability. I’m higher on Quizz than I should be but I’m sticking to my guns here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who was my big named bust of the year? Doug Martin. Much like Trent Richardson, I’m not high on Doug Martin either. Haven’t been since they came out as rookies. No further proof is needed other than I don’t own either of them in a single league. Pressed on the issue, I like Martin better but I don’t see the Ray Rice comparison that others see … or saw. He’s better in PPR but even then between the offense that he plays in and the players around him, I just have no patience for inconsistent backs, at least to the degree that he is. I’m selling on both he and TRich. I’m buying on Mike James, but more as a fill-in with an opportunity than future potential. I like to hold backs that are getting their first chance to impress, you never know what they will do.

Mike Glennon has more ability than he is showing and I’d buy low on him as a development QB3. What I’ve learned about Glennon is what I’ve seen in college and you can’t teach a lot of what he has. Hopefully you can teach what he isn’t. Either way, I’m buying if the price is right.

At receiver I’m a fan of Mike Williams and always have been. He’s out for the year but I believe he’ll be back stronger next year. Vincent Jackson isn’t getting any younger but he’ll hold his value for one more year. I still prefer to pass on VJax and pick up Williams after the tenth round. Or buy low on him now. He receives a downgrade due to offense and a young QB, but I’m still buying. At tight end, I think we have a nice player developing in Tim Wright. He’s a former wide receiver now playing tight end and his targets will undoubtedly rise going forward. He’s got soft hands and a good feel for defensive soft-spots. Add him now before he becomes more well-known. If the price is right.

Next we look at the AFC.

Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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