Mid-Season Rookie Mock Draft

From the ending of one fantasy football season in December until the start of the next one in September, we spent a total of eight months trying to figure out who is primed for a breakout, who is about to fall off, and which rookies are most likely to succeed. Sometimes we are dead on and other times we are way off base. You can’t be right all the time after all!

In order to give a little snapshot of how some of our opinions have changed in regards to the 2013 rookie class over the first two months of the NFL season, we conducted a staff rookie only draft. The scoring and format was much like all of our offseason rookie drafts in that we set the ground rules of standard PPR scoring, no trades, three rounds, and randomized draft order.

The draft picks are in the order they were made and the number in parenthesis is the average position that they were drafted in our May, June, and August staff mock drafts. That way you have a little perspective on which way they are trending. Here is the full draft with some comments at the end.

Major Risers (Gained six spots or more)

Keenen Allen, WR SD – Allen is definitely one of the rookies that are in the forefront of everyone’s mind right now with his recent games. Some of our drafters were shocked that he was a top 3 pick while others said that they would have taken him first overall. This sums up the feelings of the general community. There are a lot of people that are super high on Allen right now, viewing him as a surefire WR1 in a year or two while others are much more hesitant. For me, I like seeing more than two or three games before I anoint anyone as a top 10 guys. Bryce Brown is the prime example of why I feel this way. Regardless of what you think, Allen is definitely one of the most prized rookies right now in a lot of leagues.

Andre Ellington, RB ARI – After going largely undrafted in our mock drafts in favor of his less talented teammate Stepfan Taylor, Ellington makes an appearance in the middle of the first round. He has flashed some talent and worked himself into a committee role for the Cardinals. There have also been numerous reports from team officials and even his head coach saying that they are concerned how big of a role Ellington can handle, which is part of what knocked him down fantasy draft boards in the first place. He’s a definite committee back and while he might produce, I don’t think he is worth the mid-first round pick at this point. His stock is definitely rising though!

Robert Woods, WR BUF – I’ll admit, I’ve been pretty critical of Woods through the offseason. I didn’t see anything special when I looked at him. He’s on pace for 48 receptions, about 700 yards and 4 touchdowns which isn’t bad, but isn’t great for a rookie. I’m still not sure that he is anything more than an NFL number 2 which for the Bills would translate to a fantasy WR3/WR4, but the fact that he earned immediate and consistent playing time does show that he is going to have a role on his team.

Terrance Williams, WR DAL – During the pre-season, I gave Williams a decent shot to be the third receiver on the Cowboys and push Miles Austin for the number two spot next offseason. I didn’t expect him to do that half way through his rookie year! He has made his fair share of mistakes with a few drops and wrong routes, but there is no denying the ability that he has shown. The Cowboys have found their wingman for Dez Bryant and once he stops making rookie mistakes he’ll be a weekly fantasy starter. He’s already jumped from late second round to late first round, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s pushing to be in the top five rookie group by the season’s end.

Geno Smith, QB NYJ – Smith was consistently the second quarterback taken in our rookie drafts this offseason but he leaps over EJ Manuel to take the top spot here. Manuel’s injury combined with Smith looking better than expected have his stock on the rise. Like most rookie quarterbacks, there have been struggles but his team has won every game where his interceptions were less than or equal to his touchdowns. I still view his ceiling as a QB2 in fantasy leagues, but he looks better than a lot of the other quarterbacks currently in the league.

Zach Ertz, TE PHI – The Eagles’ offense hasn’t been the next evolution of pro football as some were hoping. Outside of LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson it is tough to find anyone that has been a consistent producer. Ertz is no exception. With that said, his role has grown as the season has progressed and he is poised to take over the starting role. Don’t expect consistency quite yet though, and I feel like his rise in our draft is due more to others falling than anything else.

Jordan Reed, TE WAS – One of, if not the biggest surprises of this draft was that Reed lasted until I picked at 2.11. Prior to the season starting, I felt that he was consistently undervalued when he was going in the third round. Now that he has forced Fred Davis to the bench and stepped in as a key playmaker for Washington I expected him to push for the top tight end drafted. He would have been my choice much earlier in the second round. The talent is obvious and the situation doesn’t get much better. Take a look at the production of Shannon Sharpe and Owen Daniels in the Shanahan system. If your league is still sleeping on Reed, it is time to make an offer before it is too late!

The Previously Undrafted – Of the six players that showed up in this third round that were previously undrafted, Marlon Brown is the one that I would want the most. He has out produced the other young talent on his team which should secure the second wide receiver job for him. Vance McDonald isn’t too far behind Brown since he is a promising young tight end and a great long term prospect. Short of the two of them, I don’t see a huge ceiling for any of them. I question Robinson purely because I don’t see the Saints ever committing to just two running backs, let alone one. Barner is soon to be a gameday inactive once everyone is healthy, Fauria is little more than a goal line threat (take a look at my mythbusters article on him), and Glennon is limited to QB2 upside.

Major Fallers (Slipped six spots or more):

Montee Ball, RB DEN – As a fan of Montee, I was a bit surprised that he slipped to the late first round. Even more surprising was the discussion after the pick. If he didn’t go at 1.11, he would have slipped to at least 2.06 if not 2.08. Some said they wouldn’t have even looked at him until the third round. Part of this might be the natural “what have you done for me lately” mentality that comes with the NFL. The other part of it is that he has failed to show much of anything so far this year, getting beat out by Knowshon Moreno for the starting role. I still believe that he is the future bell cow for the Broncos, but I would be lying if I said that I was just as sure of this today as I was a few months ago. Others are very clearly much less optimistic about his future.

Justin Hunter, WR TEN – After going late in the first round for most of our staff mock drafts, Hunter went in the middle of the second round. I know that where he was taken this spring and summer was all over the board. I honestly don’t know why Hunter has fallen a bit. Everyone that was being realistic about Hunter knew that he was going to struggle this year and was more of a long term prospect. I still really like his prospect for 2014 and beyond, so if the Hunter owner is souring on him, it might be time to make an offer.

Christine Michael, RB SEA – Much like Hunter, I’m really not sure what has changed with Michael since the summer. Anyone that expected more from Michael than what we have seen so far either wasn’t being realistic or didn’t do their homework on the Seattle offense. Michael was always a 2014 or 2015 fantasy prospect, not a 2013 prospect. Some have started to devalue Michael a bit though because Robert Turbin has managed to hold off the rookie for backup duty. Turbin is a legitimate concern moving for Michael’s role and value, but that isn’t anything that isn’t new. I still think Michael is Ben Tate 2.0.

Johnathan Franklin, RB GB – Franklin has been a bit of a roller coaster. This offseason, many felt that he was talented enough to push Lacy for the starting role and at least carve out a committee role. He really struggled in training camp and ended up as third on the depth chart behind middle level talent James Starks. Then, due to injuries, he had a chance and he goes 103 yards on only 13 carries with a touchdown and three receptions. Since then he hasn’t had more than three touches in a game. He definitely has talent, but it just hasn’t translated to the practice field yet, so he can’t show it on game days either. His drop off is largely due to Lacy running away with the lead role.

Travis Kelce, TE KC – There were some that were talking about Kelce as a first round fantasy pick and the best tight end in the class. He is still talented, but injuries have destroyed his rookie season. At this point, he’s little more than yet another talented playmaker that can’t stay on the field due to injury. His value is definitely in the tank. If you have the roster space and still believe, you might be able to grab him for cheap.

Stedman Bailey, WR STL – Bailey was a stud at West Virginia. In fact, he out produced Austin in almost every way last season. The issue is that this year he’s being beat out by the likes of Austin Pettis and Brian Quick, both of whom we expected Bailey to be able to overtake. I still like Bailey to eventually become the number three receiver for the Rams, but unless Sam Bradford can stay healthy and take the next step it doesn’t matter.

Latavius Murray, RB OAK – I felt that Murray’s 2.08 ADP was much, much too high. He was one of if not the most overhyped rookie this offseason. He is a decent talent but the injury issues combined with his style really made me question what he would be able to do in the NFL. I expected him to spend a lot of time injured and that is exactly what has happened so far. I’ll be surprised if he ever sees significant action on the field. At this point, I even think 3.12 is much too high for him, but if you’re a believer you might be able to get him for cheap right now. Though personally, I’m not buying.

Those That Went Undrafted – There were only a few players that were consistently going in our mock drafts this summer that fell completely out of this draft. They were Da’Rick Rogers, Mike Gillislee, and Charles Johnson. Rogers has talent but couldn’t get out of his own way. He’s currently on the Colts’ practice squad and is worth keeping an eye on with Reggie Wayne getting hurt.  Gillislee couldn’t beat out Daniel Thomas and the Dolphins backfield is a mess. Charles Johnson hurt his knee and has been on a few different practice squads now but was probably more hype than anything else.

There were definitely some surprises and shockers for me from this mock draft. One of the things to remember with all rookies is to be patient with them. If you believed in a guy this offseason, don’t give up on them. There was a reason you liked them and it has only been two months. If you notice someone else getting impatient with a rookie that you believed in, definitely see if you can take that rookie off their hands. Patience is everything, and hopefully this helps you get a better idea of where the general thoughts are with rookies right now.

What are some of the things that stand out to you?

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Jacob Feldman

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jacob is a high school math teacher by day and a father at night. This doesn't leave too much time for sane thought, so occasionally words like "icky" will slip into his writing. It is all a part of the fun!

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