Mining for Paydirt: Week Eight

Chad Scott

jonesMining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues.  The players we focus on here are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers.  I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Joique Bell – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for.  I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates.  Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years.  These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on match-ups and situation.  Some may stick, some won’t.  It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.

I took last week off.  I need to refocus and find my inner Chi.  Through meditation in tight-fitting yoga pants, I made it back safely to my inner sanctum.

That’s all a lie.  I was sick as a dog and hopped up on Nyquil for most of the week.  I didn’t even get to enjoy an adult beverage until late Saturday.  The sickness was strong in me this go-around.

But alas, here I am.  Hopeful for better results as we head into the stretch run of fantasy, let’s see who can make a difference for your teams in Week Eight.

Week Eight byes: Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Houston

Make sure to get those players out of your lineups.  Don’t be that guy…

Khiry Robinson, RB NO vs BUF (17% owned)

If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you‘ve witnessed my man crush blossom when it comes to the undrafted rookie from West Texas A&M.  Robinson has been compared to Chris Ivory with better hands – he’s a powerful runner with great instincts.  What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in grit.  He’s a man’s man kind of running back – the definition of what a miner of the pay dirt embodies.

In the team’s last game against the Patriots, Robinson carried the ball seven times for 53 yards and a score.  He was shouldering the load when the team was trying to bleed the clock in the fourth quarter.  Does this mean he’s the new closer in town?  I’m not sure, but I’m willing to take that gamble in a handful of leagues where the waiver wire is baron of talent and bye weeks are aplenty.

The Saints host the Buffalo Bills who are giving up nearly 125 rushing yards per game.  The Saints are coming off a bye and there hasn’t been any word on whether or not their former first round draft pick and plodder extraordinaire, Mark Ingram (toe), will be active or not.  Since Robinson has filled in more than admirably, there’s no rush to get Ingram back on the field – especially with the sort of electric runs they’re seeing from Robinson.  He’s accumulated 82 yards after contact on just 27 total carries.  He’s averaging 3.2 yards after contact per carry.  That’s in Adrian Peterson territory (3.35 Yco/Att).

I expect this one to get out of hand early with a healthy dose of Robinson in the fourth quarter.  If you haven’t stashed him in your dynasty leagues already, you’re doing it wrong.

Paydirt Prediction: 12 carries, 75 yards and one touchdown; one reception, 25 yards

Marvin Jones, WR CIN vs NYJ (17% owned)

One of Week Three’s Mining heroes makes another appearance as his ownership levels are still amazingly low despite touchdowns in consecutive games.  I get it, he doesn’t start and he sees less than 50% of the team’s snaps.

But dude balls when given the opportunity.  Jones is ranked #6 in points per snap (0.34) and #16 in points per opportunity (0.45).  The names ahead of him in PPS include: Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon, Wes Welker and Antonio Brown.

The risk we take when starting Jones isn’t about the ability, only about playing time.  He’s seeing just 40% of the teams’ snaps, while Mohamed Sanu continues to see about 80%.  Jones has out-targeted Sanu 11-7 the past two weeks.  Perhaps a changing of the guard is coming, but note the very small sample size.

Andy Dalton has been playing out of his mind the past two weeks averaging 354 yards, three touchdowns, with only one interception thrown.

The Bengals face the Jets, meaning A.J. Green will be faced off with Antonio Cromartie.  That leaves rookie, Dee Milliner and Antonio Allen on Jones and Sanu.  That sounds delicious.

The Jets have been a stout defense.  Their front seven is one of the best in the NFL at stopping the run yielding just 3.1 yards per carry.

The Bengals will be moving the ball via the pass… Benjarvus Green-Ellis, please go away.  Dalton should continue his roll this weekend while giving Jones the hat trick for consecutive touchdown weeks.

Paydirt Prediction: 4 receptions, 70 yards and one touchdown

Zach Ertz, TE PHI vs NYG (17% owned)

I wasn’t a big fan of Ertz coming out and still have my reservations today, but his increase in targets can’t be denied.  After having no more than three targets in a game through the first five weeks, Ertz has received 11 in the past two.  Unfortunately, he’s caught just six of those 46 yards.  Whether or not that’s a function of having Nick Foles behind center or not remains to be seen.  Guess we’ll find out this week as Mike Vick is set to return.

The Giants are giving up 16.63 PPR points to tight ends this season – and that’s including last week’s dismal performance put on by the Vikings on Monday Night.  I made this neat-o graph for you guys:

Week

Player

Rec

Yards

TD

1

Jason Witten

8

70

2

2

Julius Thomas

6

47

1

3

Greg Olsen

4

54

0

4

Sean McGrath

5

64

1

5

Brent Celek

3

47

1

6

Marcellus Bennett

6

68

0

7

Kyle Rudolph

3

27

0

If you take out last week’s stats, you’ll see the lowest scoring total from a tight end was Week Three when Olsen scored 9.4 PPR points.  Not terrible for the position if you don’t own a top five.

Brent Celek is a problem, but seems to be ceding some of the playing time to Ertz as of late.  Again, could be the Foles factor, but Celek has received just four targets the past two weeks.

If ever there was a time for the rookie tight end to have a breakout performance, the time is here.  With all the byes and injuries at the position, I’d play Ertz over names such as Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook or Jermaine Gresham.

Paydirt Prediction: four receptions, 50 yards and first NFL touchdown

What are YOUR Paydirt Predictions?