Dynasty Mythbusters: Week Seven

Jacob Feldman

Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.

If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.

We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.

With the injuries starting to pile up across the NFL and utterly decimating fantasy teams near and far, it is becoming increasingly important to take a look at some of the replacements that are stepping into those vacated roles. This week I’m going to take a look at a pair of receivers that stepped up during week 7 and try to figure out if we can continue to expect them to produce at a value close to their injured teammates for the rest of the year or if this was just a case of them being in the right place at the right time for a week.

Jarrett Boykin, WR GB

jarrett_boykinWeek Seven Statline: 8 receptions on 10 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown.

The Packers’ offense continues to be one the unluckiest units in the league. After suffering multiple injuries to their offensive line prior to the season, two thirds of their starting receiver group went down in week six and their starting tight end went down in week seven. That leaves a very big hole for someone to fill and in week seven that someone was Boykin. The problem is that his week six performance was absolutely terrible. The question is which one is the real Jarrett Boykin.

The Good: A bigger receiver at 6’2” and nearly 220 pounds, Boykin has the frame and the size to overpower defenders when going for the ball or going up for a jump ball. He also does a very nice job of running routes and being where he needs to be at the right time. Add in the fact that he is a good run blocker for a wide receiver and you have someone that can be a nice possession receiver. His team high 8 catches and 10 targets in week seven hints at the fact that Aaron Rodgers can and will get him the ball if he gets open.

The Bad: One of the first things that stands out when watching Boykin is that he really isn’t fast nor elusive. He has decent acceleration when making cuts and running routes, but he just doesn’t seem to have a top gear. While he can power through some bad tackles, but he isn’t going to make many defenders miss. He also had a pretty bad drop in week six and ran the wrong route once or twice, but Rodgers doesn’t seem to be holding that against him.

The Ugly Truth: At the start of the season, the top four receivers for the Packers in no particular order were Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley. Nelson is still there, but Cobb and Finley are out for several weeks while Jones is going to be questionable to return in week eight. I expect the Packers to turn into a balanced team team due to the injuries and continue to run around 30 times in a game while trying to pass a roughly equal amount of the time.

I would also expect that Boykin won’t be the team’s receiving leader on a regular basis. I think that the big reason he was in week seven is that all-pro Joe Haden was making life very difficult for Nelson and Rodgers didn’t have anyone else to target. When you put an average NFL cornerback on other side by Nelson and combine it with a soon to be returning James Jones, I’m fairly comfortable saying that this will likely be Boykin’s best game of the season.

Moving forward, I expect to see games around the 5 receptions for 60 yards with a chance at a touchdown until Jones gets up to speed. Once Jones is back in, I would expect the total to drop a little bit more than that. Even if Boykin stays as the third receiver on the team for the rest of the year, I don’t think the Packers will be throwing it enough to make that a consistent producer in the fantasy world. The fourth target, behind the two receivers and a running back, isn’t going to be fantasy worthy unless the team is pass heavy. With the emerging running game, the Packers should be balanced. Long term, I’m not sure that Boykin has the explosiveness to be a true starter in the NFL. I wouldn’t add him to my roster unless bye weeks and injuries have made me very desperate for a WR3/WR4 over the next few weeks.

Harry Douglas, WR ATL

Week Seven Statline: 7 receptions on 7 targets for 149 yards and 1 touchdown.

If you were asked at the start of the season when the Atlanta Falcons would get their second win of the season, most people would have said week two or week three at the latest. The winning money ended up being on week seven. One of the big reasons for that victory was the play of veteran Harry Douglas, the longtime third receiver of the Falcons that was forced to step up and be the man at the receiver position due to Julio Jones being out for the year and Roddy White missing the first game of his career. Of course the question is if we can expect Douglas to continue helping fantasy teams down the stretch or if this was just the perfect storm.

The Good: Douglas is a proven commodity that has earned the third wide receiver role year after year in Atlanta. He has good hands to haul in whatever Matt Ryan can get to him, and his breakaway speed is more than enough to make foolish defenses pay. He has the quickness to routinely turn 4 yard gains into 24 yard gains if he is in open space and can make the first defender miss. Another big plus is that there aren’t any other wide receivers to threaten his role as a starter even once White does come back.

The Bad: When looking at Douglas, you aren’t going to mistake him for a basketball player. Saying that he is 6’0” is being generous and he does have a rather lean frame. This makes it possible for defenses to muscle him around a bit which takes him out of games. This is exactly what the Buccaneers did to him in the second half of Sunday’s game that resulted in only one short catch after halftime. He also isn’t going to win any jump balls or sky over defenders like his injured teammate, Julio Jones. Douglas is built more like a slot receiver than anything else.

The Ugly Truth: Once Roddy White comes back, Douglas will be at least third on the pecking order (behind Tony Gonzalez) if not fourth with the way that Jacquizz Rodgers is catching the ball out of the backfield. Fortunately that isn’t a death blow to his value because Atlanta can’t run. When the running backs average only two yards per carry it means that your team is going to need to throw the ball a lot if they plan on winning. The presence of White will also help keep the better defensive backs on the other side of the field and away from Douglas. The other major piece of good news is that even if he is the fourth target he is the only true downfield speed threat that the team has, meaning he is going to be the field and have a chance to turn in a big play.

Looking forward, I like Douglas as a bye week fill in or as a WR3/Flex play for the rest of the season. As with all big play receivers, he is going to be a little bit inconsistent, but you know that the Falcons are going to need to keep throwing the ball if they plan on winning. Even once Steven Jackson returns to the lineup, I don’t think they have the line or the running back talent to be anything other than a pass first team. Long term, I think that Douglas could be a fantasy WR5 as Gonzalez moves on and White ages.

If I had to choose between Douglas and Boykin, I would go with Douglas as the Falcons will be pass first while the Packers will be balanced moving forward.

jacob feldman