Then and Now: Quarterbacks

“As the present now will later be past, the order is rapidly fadin’.  And the first one now will later be last, for the times they are a changin’.”

– Bob Dylan

What a difference a year can make.  Only seven short weeks into the season, the NFL has already been awash in a sea of change including such events as the Kansas City Chiefs starting off the year as the only unbeaten team, the previously moribund Cleveland Browns outperforming division rival Pittsburgh, and prior NFC heavyweight Atlanta already losing more games than they did all of 2012.  Not shockingly, this restructuring has impacted multiple players in the fantasy landscape as well.

Put another way, we set our pre-season expectations largely based off of a year’s worth of evidence from last season.  We observed these trends in order to help clarify the outlooks of many players of interest, but now have a reasonable amount of current data in hand.  So – what’s changed?

This short series sets out to answer that very question.  This four-part breakdown will look at the top ten players at each position from 2012, and compare how they’re performing so far in 2013.  From there we can decide if it’s time to reset our expectations in order to predict the potential results for the remainder of the season.

In order to do so, it’s time to bust out some statistics, and by now it’s no secret to the DLF masses that I’m a huge proponent of efficiency metrics.  Instead of explaining this affinity yet again, I’ll just refer you here, here, here, here and here.  Simply put, in my opinion it’s the best way to not only compare apples to apples, but to essentially pluck them from the identical branch of the same metaphorical tree.

In that spirit, key efficiency metrics will be used in order to judge each player’s progression (or regression) in the past year.  I’ll also include rationale as to why things could be going the way they are, as well as insight towards the future.  Let’s begin with the quarterbacks!

Before we dive into the data, here’s a list of abbreviations and explanations for the key terms used:

Fantasy Points Per Game (PPG) – Each player’s weekly output according to standard WCOFF PPR scoring.

Pass Attempts Per Game (PAPG) – Each player’s average weekly passing attempts.

Rush Attempts Per Game (RAPG) – Each player’s average weekly rushing attempts. This was included as several of the quarterbacks chronicled derived a non-trivial amount of fantasy output from their rushing ability.

Points Per Passing Attempt (PPA) – A quarterback’s total fantasy points from passing (rushing points subtracted) are divided by his total passing attempts.  This provides insight into a signal caller’s per play effectiveness.

Points Per Rushing Attempt (PPR) – Analogous to PPA, but for points derived from rushing divided by rushing attempts.

Percent Changes (% Change) – This shows the differences for each metric between 2012 and 2013.

Let’s get started! (Editor’s note: All 2013 statistics include only the first six weeks of the season)

Drew Brees, QB NO

Then and Now:  Brees lit up the 2012 season to the tune of 27.3 points per game, and thus far he hasn’t let up in 2013.  In fact, the only thing keeping him from the top spot is Peyton Manning’s otherworldly campaign.  His efficiency numbers are virtually similar to last year’s, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down.

Future Prognosis:  Following a week seven bye there’s no reason to expect Brees to slow down.  With a preponderance of weapons at his disposal and a mostly soft second half schedule, he seems like a lock to remain one of fantasy’s top passers.

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

* denotes the player has already had his bye week

Then and Now:  Rodgers has mitigated drop-offs in PPA (albeit, slight) and PPR (no rushing touchdowns) with a slight increase in volume across the board, leading to a ranking as the 2013 QB7 despite only playing five games so far.  While he hasn’t been the aberrational positional advantage he’s made out to be, he’s as rock solid a QB1 as you could ask for.

Future Prognosis:  Rodgers scored two rushing touchdowns in 2012, so the running output should get a slight bump.  Losing Randall Cobb (short term IR) and James Jones (potential one to two games) could bring about a slight drop in efficiency, but Rodgers has the ability to power through it and continue to put up numbers.

Tom Brady, QB NE

Then and Now:  In a word, yikes.  Though Brady had an excellent fantasy season in 2012, it was secretly boosted by two factors:  the highest volume of his career, and a bizarrely proficient running ability.  Unfortunately for the Patriots’ signal caller, the volume is still there the efficiency isn’t – Tom Terrific has clearly missed weapons like Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead.  Saddled with a cast of rookies and injured reserve candidates, Brady’s fall from grace now sees him as a low-end QB2.

Future Prognosis:  The return of Gronkowski should be a big boost to the offense, and if oft-injured receiver Danny Amendola can stay healthy, expect Brady’s numbers to improve.  With that said, his upside now appears capped as a lower-tier QB1 versus the top five lock he’s been for the better part of the last decade.

Cam Newton, QB CAR

* denotes the player has already had his bye week

Then and Now:  Following a four-touchdown explosion versus the Vikings in week six, Newton appeared to get his season back on track.  His passing efficiency has improved over 2012, but the main thing holding him back is the scaling down of his rushing workload.  New coordinator Mike Schula has struggled to achieve a consistent game plan, perhaps capping Newton’s development.

Future Prognosis:  Newton won’t get the Vikings every week, and main weapon Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger.  Regardless, should he get back to his mobile ways it’s reasonable to expect another top five finish for the young signal caller.

Matt Ryan, QB ATL

* denotes the player has already had his bye week

Then and Now:  In 2012 Ryan experienced the best fantasy season of his career, predicated on a combination of volume and efficiency.  While the volume is even better so far in 2013 (a 13.5% increase), the efficiency has unfortunately dipped.  Regardless, his output thus far has been good enough to see him ranked as the QB6 on a per-game basis.

Future Prognosis:  As the Lions’ Matt Stafford showed us last year, expecting sustained fantasy greatness based solely on passing attempts is a dicey proposition.  However, with the loss of the all-world Julio Jones for the season and trusted veteran Roddy White for an indeterminate amount of time, along with a porous Falcons defense, volume could be the name of the game for the rest of 2013.

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

Then and Now:  If Manning’s first season back following neck surgery was a pleasant surprise akin to finding a 20-dollar bill, his 2013 campaign has been like winning the lottery.  He’s taken a top-three passing efficiency in 2012 to an amazing new level (0.812 fantasy points per attempt), and now utterly dwarfs the competition.  With an analogous increase in workload, Manning stands primed to threaten for the greatest statistical season ever from a signal caller.

Future Prognosis:  Right now it seems like the only thing that can stop The Sheriff is his bye week.  Two matchups against the undefeated Chiefs will prove more challenging than anything he’s faced thus far, but with the best collection of skill players in the league, don’t expect Manning to slow down anytime soon.

Tony Romo, QB DAL

Then and Now:  Just call him the anti-Matt Ryan.  Though Romo has seen a decrease in volume from 2012, his efficiency has spiked due to an increased completion percentage and 14:3 touchdown/interception ratio.  Shaking off a slow start to the season, Romo has firmly maintained his standing as a mid-level QB1.

Future Prognosis:  Starting with the Eagles this Sunday, Romo’s schedule for the rest of the season softens up in a big way.  Moreover, with starting running back DeMarco Murray suffering yet another injury, it’s reasonable to expect a slight increase in volume as well.

Andrew Luck, QB IND

Then and Now:  As a rookie Luck benefited from one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league, a statistic which largely buoyed his fantasy relevance.  The volume has all but dried up under new coordinator Pep Hamilton, but has been slightly offset by increases in both passing and rushing efficiency.  In fact, before a touchdown-less week six game against the Chargers, Luck’s efficiency stood at an even higher value of 0.546.  He has shown rapid improvement, even if it’s not reflected in fantasy box scores.

Future Prognosis:  With the ground game still scuffling and the defense failing to stop the run, Luck appears like the team’s best bet to sustain offense, with both his arm and legs.  Hopefully Hamilton figures this out, to the likely delight of owners everywhere.  Should the status quo continue, Luck will remain a relatively uninspiring low-end QB1.

Robert Griffin III, QB WSH

* denotes the player has already had his bye week

Then and Now:  Functioning as an electrifying dual-threat quarterback during his rookie season in 2012, RGIII has seen his rushing numbers tail off as he struggles to return from a torn ACL.  With the Redskins constantly trailing, Griffin has been forced to turn to his arm in constant catch-up mode, and this has led to nearly 42 passing attempts per game – a 58.9% increase over 2012.  Unfortunately, largely due to shoddy mechanics his passing efficiency has dipped down towards the league cellar, and without the threat of his legs the offense has been stuck in a season-long stagnation.

Future Prognosis:  Following a week five bye, RGIII began to open things up with his legs in a divisional clash with the Cowboys.  If he can sustain this sort of output it will force opposing defenses to respect the passing game, likely resulting in a bounce-back second half of the season.

Matt Stafford, QB DET

Then and Now:  Setting a league record in passing attempts in 2012, Stafford was the definition of a gunslinger – subsequently a passing efficiency worse than that of players such as Christian Ponder and Jake Locker was attenuated by sheer volume.  2013 has seen the script flipped with Stafford attempting “only” 39.8 passes per game, and doing significantly more with them.  Simply put, he appears to have regained his transcendent 2011 form.

Future Prognosis:  With all-Pro Calvin Johnson returning to health and running back Reggie Bush adding a new dimension to the short passing game, there’s no reason to expect Stafford to slow down.  He remains an every-week starter.

Stay tuned for a look at the other skill positions over the next few days. You can follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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