Herding Stats: Week Seven

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Nick Foles

Foles put on quite the show last week with a 22 completion, 296 yards for three touchdowns effort. That game came against a much better defense than he faces this week in the Cowboys. Dallas is giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season due in large part to them giving up the second most passing yards to quarterbacks this season. The Cowboys are also tied for first in giving up the most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks at 14, or a little over two per game. This comes on the heels of the aforementioned three touchdown performance by Foles in which his team will likely fall behind in the game and he will need to pass more in order to either keep up or catch up. This actually bodes well for Foles as Dallas is allowing just under two thirds of all passes to be completed (65.6%), the ninth highest in the NFL. The Eagles meanwhile have the eighth most passing touchdowns this season but are tied for the lowest amount of interceptions thrown and have the fifth most passing yards this season. Foles showed great poise at the controls of an offense who is gaining 7.8 yards per pass attempt, third highest in the NFL. In fact, he actually improved this average by gaining 9.55 yards per pass attempt last week, something he is likely to improve upon again this week. While Foles is a scary start for most, he actually has one of the best match-ups he’s likely to have all season (provided he starts or continues to start).

Running Back Focus:  DeAngelo Williams

Really? Yeah, I know, I feel dirty for even saying this but on paper this is a prime match-up. As we’ve seen thus far this season, the Rams rushing defense is nearly non-existent. We’ve also seen that the Panthers love to run the ball with 163 rush attempts this season, which ranks 11th overall in the NFL. Why is this important? The Panthers have managed that many rushes over just five games, they’ve out-rushed 14 teams who have played six games! Carolina actually is the third highest rushing percentage team at 49.1% of all plays being a rushing play. St. Louis meanwhile is giving up the third most rushing yards per game at 130.5 yards surrendered. Don’t look now but Williams is actually a top 10 rusher thus far this season (10th overall) and only two players ahead of him (Adrian Peterson & Doug Martin) have played only five games. He has also achieved this with the least attempts (91) out of any of the top ten rushers. Williams is also averaging the eighth highest rushing yards per game with 78.8 yards. I understand most people’s desire to flat out avoid playing Williams if at all possible. However, if you have him on your squad and have ever considered playing him at any point in this season, then this is absolutely the match up to trot him out. He’s burned many of us before, and he may well do so again, but at least you can say you gave him one last shot to prove himself for your team. If he doesn’t produce now then there is no point in ever trusting him again.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Indianapolis WRs

So this game is going to be a perfect storm of emotions meets cold hard statistics. The obvious angle here is that this is going to be Peyton Manning’s first game back in Indianapolis since he was released at the beginning of last season. Anyone with half a brain can tell that he is going to come into Lucas Oil field with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. What’s even weirder is many of the fans at the stadium will be cheering him on despite the fact that their home team will be playing him. Manning holds an incredible amount of respect among Colts fans even to this day, many want to see him succeed for all the good times he gave them. Manning’s not out to prove those fans wrong, he’s out to prove to the management of the Colts that he’s still got it and “it” will be on full display. Simply put, he has lit the NFL on fire with his rejuvenated prowess.  So why does this matter for the Colts receivers? Simple, they will fall behind, it’s almost a foregone conclusion. They are going to have to play from behind and will have to throw to even have a chance of getting back in the game. Luckily for the Colts the Broncos defense is one of the worst against the pass this season. Denver has given up the most passing yards to receivers out of any team in the NFL. They are also giving up the third most yards per pass attempt with 8.5 yards gained per attempt and 14.1 yards per reception, the highest amount in the NFL. The added bit of emotion to factor in here is that is Luck is ever going to get out of Manning’s shadow he’s going to have to put on just as big of a show in front of the home fans. As such, he’s going to try to prove that the Colts made the right choice and that he deserves to take the baton from Manning. He’s going to have to pass a lot and be on point with nearly every throw. The obvious winners in this power play to end all power plays is the Colts receivers who should be targeted heavily all game.

Tight End Focus: Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph finally showed up on the fantasy radar this past week with nine receptions, 97 yards and a touchdown. This is what many fantasy owners expected from him when he was coming off the draft boards as one of the top tight ends this off-season. Unfortunately for those owners this performance was far and away the anomaly, no performance so far this season has even come close to what he did this past weekend. However, that trend could very well reverse this Monday night when the Vikings face the Giants. New York is the fourth worst team when defending against tight ends. They have given up a league high six touchdowns to the position, or one touchdown per game, en route to their 0-6 record. Opponents of the Giants are throwing roughly 39 pass attempts in their match-ups, the ninth most in the NFL. Meanwhile the big news for Rudolph in this game, other than it being in front of a prime time audience, is that he’s likely going to be getting a new quarterback (Josh Freeman), one fairly unfamiliar with the offense and it’s pieces. This generally tends to bode well for tight ends as the position is generally thought of as a security blanket for quarterbacks in this situation. Look for Rudolph to be targeted frequently throughout the night.

Defensive Team Focus:  San Diego Chargers

Normally I wouldn’t suggest starting the Chargers defense in even the most dire of circumstances but this week isn’t your normal week, they get to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. The sad thing about the Jaguars is that everyone knows they are going to fall behind early and are going to have to pass much of the rest of the game just to try to catch up. That cold hard fact is reflected in the fact that Jacksonville throws the eighth highest percentage of passes but is dead last in points scored with 11.7 points scored per game on average. Meanwhile San Diego actually does a fairly good job of keeping opponents out of the red zone with the sixth least red zone attempts yielded per game with 2.3 attempts per game. Another big problem for Jacksonville is that nearly 5% of all of its plays result in interceptions, the Jaguars have the fourth highest percentage of plays becoming interceptions, which is fairly understandable given the number of chances they have to take in order to attempt to stay competitive. Look for the Chargers to focus on defending the pass and likely coming up with a few interceptions in the process.

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