Dynasty Mythbusters: Week Six
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. Some prime examples of this from week one are how people were talking about the prospects of players like David Wilson and Julius Thomas after just one game.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The dynasty mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
This past weekend one of the most dominant players of our generation and one of the most prized fantasy assets was dealing with a knee injury. This resulted in the all world Calvin Johnson only playing a grand total of 14 snaps against the Browns with three catches and 25 yards, crushing the chances of many fantasy owners (including me) that were counting on him. Instead, all of that production went to two players that were most likely sitting on your waiver wire this past weekend. Let’s take a look at both players to see what we can expect down the road.
Kris Durham, WR DET
Week 6 statline: 13 targets, 8 receptions for 83 yards
Talking about Durham takes me back to 2011. He was an intriguing fourth round pick of the Seahawks out of Georgia. A year later he was cut and ended up being scooped up by the Lions, but was stashed on the practice squad. This season with Megatron limited, Nate Burleson out and Ryan Broyles struggled to get back on the field, the door is definitely wide open for him. The question is if he can keep it up.
The Good: At 6’6”, he is one of the tallest receivers in the league and a former college teammate of Matthew Stafford. In addition to that, he has nice speed, good leaping ability and soft hands. What might be the best case for him is the utter lack of competition at the wide receiver position. He is the only wide receiver other than Megatron who is currently active with double digit targets. We aren’t talking receptions, just targets. In fact, he led the team in targets each of the last two weeks, more than doubling the number of anyone not named Calvin in week six. The running backs are obviously involved, but someone needs to line up opposite Johnson and take advantage of the single coverage. Durham could be that guy.
The Bad: The first concern that pops to mind about Durham is that it has taken him this long to crack the starting lineup. The 2012 Seahawks weren’t exactly flush with receiving talent yet he couldn’t make their team. Likewise, the 2013 Lions didn’t have much depth, but it took a broken arm to Burleson, Broyles struggling to come back and Patrick Edwards falling apart before Durham was given his chance – that tells me NFL personnel haven’t been overly impressed with him. From what I’ve seen, he isn’t the smoothest of route runners and sometimes struggles to create separation. Instead he relies on his size advantage to make plays, which doesn’t always work against the more talented NFL corners. Other than size, Durham seems rather average on the field.
The Ugly Truth: Ultimately, I think Durham’s value comes down to opportunity. He is going to see the field. The issue is that once Megatron is back to playing full time, I question how many targets Durham will actually get. The last two weeks have been skewed a bit due to the lack of playing time for Calvin. Once Calvin is healthy, I expect more of a breakdown like week four against the Bears where Megatron had ten targets, running backs had 11 targets and tight ends had nine targets – that only leaves about 5-8 targets for Durham, which is a significant drop from the 13 he had last week.
The Lions are desperate for someone who can take advantage of the single coverage due to the double and triple teams on the other side of the field, but I’m not sure that Durham is dynamic enough to make defenses pay. He rarely gets much after the catch because there isn’t any separation from the defender. He seems to be much more of a possession receiver than a truly dynamic athlete who can slip past a defender and get deep from time to time, which is what the Lions need to keep safeties more towards the middle of the field.
Overall, I don’t expect Durham to be anything close to startable in a fantasy lineup once Megatron is playing a full complement of snaps. He’s more of a WR5/WR6 with the potential to be a WR3 should injuries keep the door open for him. I don’t think he is the long term answer to the wingman position in Detroit. He lacks the dynamic ability that the Lions were hoping to find in Titus Young and Ryan Broyles. He’ll be back to a backup by this time next year, playing behind a free agent signing or a high draft pick.
Joseph Fauria, TE DET
Week 6 statline: 3 receptions for 34 yards and 3 touchdowns
The 6’7” undrafted rookie out of UCLA is getting an awful lot of attention after his three touchdown performance (and the dances) on Sunday. At the current point in time, he actually leads the Lions in touchdowns with five, tied for tenth in the league. If you limit it to just receiving touchdowns he is tied for sixth. Is he the new redzone threat for the high powered offense led by Megatron and Reggie Bush or was this just another fluke performance?
The Good: When you look at Fauria, the first item that you can’t help but notice is the size. At 6’7” and 255 pounds, he has the size and strength to be a solid inline tight end who can occasionally slip out into the open field and take advantage of mismatches. With the lack of wide receivers, the Lions will continue to use a lot of two tight end formations. Tony Scheffler is out with a concussion and might not get the number two job back when he returns. The Lions have already shown a tendency to use Fauria in short yardage and goal line situations, making him one of Stafford’s primary targets in the end zone.
The Bad: There is a reason Fauria was an undrafted rookie this past year. He really isn’t a natural pass catcher nor a downfield seam stretcher. In other words, he isn’t the athletic tight end that seems to be taking the league by storm. Instead, he is a bit of a throwback to the big bodied, block first, short to intermediate route runners that dominated the NFL a decade or two ago. While that isn’t a bad thing, it does limit his fantasy appeal. Brandon Pettigrew is still the primary pass catching option from the position and is going to be the one that stays on the field when there is only a single tight end.
The Ugly Truth: The five touchdown catches sound really good at first. When you look a bit closer it seems a lot more fluke than trend. Overall, he has only nine total targets and just seven catches in six games. There are going to be a lot in the media members who will talk about how the Lions need to get Fauria more involved and get him more snaps. The problem is he just isn’t the best option in the passing game outside of the red zone. Brandon Pettigrew really is a better overall player and we can’t forget about the, running backs and Calvin Johnson. While he might see a slight uptick in his snaps and targets, he isn’t going to get enough action to be startable in leagues this year outside of touchdown heavy leagues.
Long term is a bit more interesting because Pettigrew is a free agent at the end of the season. With Pettigrew being an above average (but not dynamic) tight end, the Lions might let him test the market instead of overpaying. They could also sign him towards the end of the season before he reaches free agency. I feel like it is slightly more likely he leaves, but it is close. If he does leave, that could open the door for Fauria to step up and be more of an every down player. The problem is I just don’t see him with the talent to be much more than he already is – a red zone threat.
Unless you have really deep rosters or a touchdown heavy scoring system, I think you’re better off letting someone else burn the roster space and free agent dollars on him. He’s likely to end the season with about 15 receptions for 150 yards and eight touchdowns and maybe see a slight gain in receptions and yards next year, but I doubt the touchdowns will reach that mark again given the lack of upside and athletic ability.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
