Mining for Paydirt: Week 6

Mining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues.  The players we focus on here are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers.  I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Joique Bell – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for.  I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates.  Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years.  These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on match-ups and situation.  Some may stick, some won’t.  It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.

It’s been a bad week.  The Julio Jones news has me depressed while I’m still reeling from the loss of Brian Hoyer last week.  Never in a million years would I have thought to admit the latter, but I have two dogs in that fight that need to perform at a high level.  Depending on Brandon Weeden can put you in a very dark place.

The good news is, I’ve had a few shower cries, have downed some of the finer IPAs my state (Washington) has to offer and I’m ready to get back in the game.  The last couple weeks have been rough… brutal, really.  Time to polish this turd and call out some gold.  Let’s go.

Week Six byes are Miami and Atlanta

QB: Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan

RB: Lamar Miller, Jaquizz Rodgers, Jason Snelling and Steven Jackson

WR: Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, Roddy White and He Who Shall Not Be Named

TE: Charles Clay and Tony Gonzalez

Ted Ginn, WR CAR @ MIN (30% owned)

The last time I put a Carolina wide receiver in this article, dude balled out (Brandon LaFell).  Since I’m having a bit of a dry streak, time to hit them up again.

Call me nuts, but I’m starting to believe in Ginn this season.  He hasn’t just been a deep threat or return specialist – he’s actually making plays in the middle of the field… some anyway.

Let’s put the fact he plays the Vikings this week on pause and focus on what he has done this season.  Ginn has averaged just over 11 PPR points per week.  He has 46.2 points, while Steve Smith has 44.3.  And he’s killing it in other categories, too.

Ginn has an aDOT (average depth of throw) of 21.9 – tops in the NFL of the 25% qualifying snaps.  He’s also top five in PPO (points per opportunity) and PPS (points per snap) at 0.54 (#4) and 0.39 (#2), respectively.   The problem is, Ginn has only seen about half the snaps Smith and LaFell have gotten.  The Panthers cut Armanti Edwards earlier this week which should free up a few more plays for Ginn in the immediate future.

Back to the Vikings and their “defense.”  They’re coming off their bye week and playing at home, so I expect them to improve just slightly on their 326 passing yards allowed per game average.  They are giving up the sixth most points to fantasy wide receivers (and second most to tight ends).  Cam Newton should have no problem picking apart this defense unless he gets Shula’d.

Here we go aGinn on our own…

Paydirt Prediction: four receptions, 90 yards and one touchdown; 20 yard rush

Greg Little, WR CLE vs DET (26% owned)

I went with Davone Bess in last week’s column and it looked to be going well until Hoyer left the game with a season ending knee injury.  Then, he got Weeden’d.

It’s a new week and Weeden targets Little more than did Hoyer, so I’m doubling down on a Browns’ skill player.  He’s obviously a glutton for dropped passes (Little has four on just 32 targets), but looking deeper into the stats, Little has a borderline fantastic chance at paying dividends for your imaginary teams.

The Lions pass defense has been atrocious and teams’ #2 wide receivers have feasted, especially as of late:

Week	Player	Rec	Yards	TD
1	Jerome Simpson	7	140	0
2	Michael Floyd	3	22	0
3	Santana Moss	7	77	0
4	Alshon Jeffery	5	107	1
5	James Jones	4	127	1

You’ll see the Lions have given up 85.3 PPR points to opposing teams’ #2 wide receivers – good for 17 points per game.  (Note: Santana Moss lines up mostly in the slot)

While a case can be made Little isn’t in the same class as 60% of these receivers, he does tend to make noise a couple weeks out of a season.  This could be the game Little owners who have held on for so long cash in.  If he’s not already rostered in your league, show him a Little love.

Paydirt Prediction: five receptions, 75 yards and one touchdown

Luke Willson, TE SEA vs TEN (3% owned)

If you don’t own Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Cameron Jordan, etc… Willson (two “Ls”) should be on your radar this week.  Zach Miller is listed as questionable as of Wednesday and Willson filled in for him last week.  Willson played 50 snaps, ran 26 routes and was targeted four times.  He caught only two for 28 yards and also dropped one.

Willson was a player I stashed on many a dynasty league this season and I wrote about the rookie here:  https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/07/21/pr-summer-sleeper-seattle-seahawks/ (disregard the first fellow).

He’s a huge target, standing at 6’6”, 250 pounds with upper echelon speed (runs a 4.5 forty yard dash).  The rook has improved every week by running crisp routes, making first downs and most importantly, blocking well on pass downs when asked to.

It normally takes tight ends a couple years to acclimate themselves to the NFL game.  Most tight ends who come out of college can catch the ball, but where they have issues is pass protections at the next level.  Willson gets it and Pete Carroll has praised the rookie’s blocking ability since OTAs.

But points aren’t awarded for blocking – enter the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are lousy at covering tight ends this season, yielding 16 PPG to the position.  That number includes their Week One performance against the man, the myth, the legend that is David Johnson – He caught one pass for 11 yards.  These are the performances since then:

Week	Player	Rec	Yards	TD
2	Owen Daniels/Garrett Graham	5	54	2
3	Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green	7	103	1
4	Kellen Winslow/Jeff Cumberland	7	107	1
5	Sean McGrath	4	54	0

The common denominator between these tight ends (with the exception of McGrath) is they are all big and athletic.  There is fantasy goodies to be had against this defense and with the Seahawks playing host, I’m grabbing Willson and starting him over names like Kyle Rudolph, Brandon Myers and Jermichael Finley, to name a few.

The Luke Wilson jokes are played out so I’ll spare you.  Just make sure to add and insert him this week.

Paydirt Prediction: five receptions, 65 yards and first career touchdown

**I’d like to give SJ a shoutout down here as well.  He commented on picking up Kris Durham last weekend who ended up as the WR32.  Nice going, my dude!

What are YOUR Paydirt Predictions?