Herding Stats: Week Six

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Tony Romo

Tony Romo may very well never match the performance he put in during Week five, few quarterbacks will ever match it honestly. However, coming off a stinging loss he now draws the Washington Redskins, a team that has given up the fourth most fantasy points per game this season. Despite having already had their bye week, the Redskins are giving up more touchdowns than some teams who have not yet had their by week. Washington has given up the eighth most passing touchdowns with a total of nine. I know, some of you are saying, “Well, Romo will just throw interceptions anyway!” That’s an understandable, even if misguided, response since he has only two interceptions to 13 touchdowns this season.   But let me put you at ease, Washington has only had two interceptions thus far in the season, the fourth lowest in the NFL so Romo might just squeak out without throwing one (although I wouldn’t bet the farm on it). He should, however, keep the interceptions to a minimum at the very least. So what about when he actually throws it to his team, what then? Well, Washington is giving up the second most yards per pass attempt thus far with 7.6 yards gained per pass attempt! Romo, meanwhile, is already the sixth best quarterback when it comes to yards per attempt with a 7.1 mark, so he could actually do a ton of damage. Also of note is that Washington has the second highest yards per completion and the fifth highest percentage of pass plays that go for touchdowns. Dallas, meanwhile, has the second highest percentage of pass plays that go for touchdowns and the second lowest interception percentage. Washington had better just hope that they want to rest Romo’s arm or haven’t researched any of the statistics I’m sharing with you this week, however unlikely either of those scenarios may be.

Running Back Focus:  Arian Foster

Foster has seen his workload cutback due to the likely desire to extend his career and maximize his value to the Texans. Coach Kubiak has just recently stated that he is now seeing the Arian Foster that all of us are used to and that they may begin to tilt more carries his way. If there was any week thus far to pursue that strategy it would be this week against the Rams. The Rams are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and have proven nearly incapable of stop a team determined to run against them. The Rams have been rushed against a league high 134 times this season for the second most rushing yards at 611 yards when facing opposing running backs. They have also given up the fourth most rushing touchdowns and eighth most rushing yards per attempt. Enter Arian Foster who is currently the sixth leading rusher and on a Texans team that is seriously questioning their quarterback play. Foster has the third most attempts in the NFL and looks poised to add to that total against the Rams, who are being rushed on the tenth most in the NFL and giving up the fourth most rushing yards and fourth most touchdowns in the NFL. Both Foster and Ben Tate are amongst the leaders in the NFL when examining the yards per rush attempt and they could climb even higher against the Rams who are giving up the eight most rushing yards per attempt at a staggering four yards per attempt! Foster looks poised to throw the Texans on his shoulders and run all day.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Jacksonville WRs

Oh boy, Victor Cruz you really made me look dumb by  catching less than half of the passes thrown your way. However, he did highlight an interesting issue with wide receiver predictions, if a team doesn’t throw to a specific wide receiver then it doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t be successful passing. The Giants, for instance, just decided to use fellow wideout Hakeem Nicks more and he had a monster game of nine receptions for 142 yards. Basically, Nicks had the game I thought Cruz would! This week I’m going to try hedging my bets a bit and focusing on the wide receiver corps as a whole but touch one aspects of individual players.

Now then, the Jaguars?! Yeah, I know, next to nothing about that team is noteworthy. One of the few exceptions if their wide receiving corps who are actually quite good. The simple fact of the matter though is that their quarterbacks are just not very good and this causes their team to fall behind on a regular basis. When any team falls behind they have to make up yards, and scores, quickly. The best way to do this of course is by passing the ball. Jacksonville has to pass the ball a lot, roughly 65% of all plays are pass plays. This actually is less than the percentage of pass plays that are thrown against Denver which is nearly 68% of all plays. The reason for this is two-fold of course, one is that teams that play Denver and Peyton Manning are usually playing from behind and have to throw to try to catch-up. The second reason is that Denver’s pass defense if atrocious, giving up the sixth most completed passes in the NFL and the most passing yards per game at 347 yards per game. Jacksonville is going to have to pass all day in this one just to make it respectable, as such Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are likely both have great games.

Tight End Focus:  Vernon Davis

I’m going to totally ignore Tight End-Armageddon with Rob Gronkowski coming back to face the Saints and Jimmy Graham and instead am going to highlight Vernon Davis this week. Davis faces the Cardinals who have been giving up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends this season. The Cardinals have given up the third most passing yards to tight ends with 466 yards off of 49 targets which is also the third most in the NFL. As we saw last week when I suggested Greg Olsen, the Cardinals are extremely susceptible to this kind of exploitation. Thus far, Davis has been a monster at home, accumulating just under 65% of his receptions and 83% of his receiving yards at home. On the other hand Arizona is giving up just under seven receptions to tight ends each game for 93 yards on average. Two of the Cardinals games saw tight ends going for 10 receptions, 140+ yards and two touchdowns! Look for Davis to fall short of those lofty heights but to have an extremely solid game nonetheless.

Defensive Team Focus:  New York Jets

Well look who decided to surprise everyone this season. The Jets defense was surprisingly effective against a high powered Falcons offense on Monday night and this week they draw a suspect Steelers offense. The Jets are facing a Steelers offense who has given up the third most fantasy points to defenses thus far, mainly due to a very questionable offensive line. The Steelers are giving up the fifth most sacks per game while the Jets are sacking quarterbacks the seventh most per game in the NFL. The Steelers have the lowest turnover ratio in the NFL with a 2.8 turnovers for every one turnover they create. If the Steelers are hoping to minimize their passing woes by rushing the ball they are in for a bad day as well, the Jets are giving up the second fewest yards per rush in the NFL and are giving up 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game. Pittsburgh meanwhile are gaining the second fewest rushing yards per game while scoring only 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game. The Steelers offense could be running up a much tougher challenge than many expect.