Dynasty Mythbusters: Week Five
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. Some prime examples of this from week one are how people were talking about the prospects of players like David Wilson and Julius Thomas after just one game.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
This week I’m going to take a little different spin on things. Instead of looking at someone that broke out, I’m going to look at the other end of the spectrum and focus in on someone that is struggling. I’m going to take a look at a running back that many had as a top two running back in dynasty rankings, if not the top running back or maybe even the top player overall prior to the season. So far he has struggled to reach those lofty expectations by a fairly significant margin. It is time to take a look at what he has done in the first third of the season as well as last season to see if we can expect the lack of production to continue or if we should expect a bit of a change in the weeks to come.
Trent Richardson, RB IND
Three Games with Colts: 51 carries for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. 1 catch for 6 yards.
Next 11 Games at that pace: 187 carries for 554 yards and 7 touchdowns. 4 catches for 22 yards. Â
It was almost a month ago when the Browns shocked the football world by trading the former third overall pick in the draft just 17 months after he was drafted, signaling to many that the Browns were ready to give up on the season and shoot for the first overall pick in the 2014 draft. When it comes to Richardson, the immediate thought of many was he would explode in a high powered offense of the Colts and be a dominant force on the field and in fantasy lineups.
Through the first three weeks on his new team that really hasn’t been the case. In fact, if he continues at his current pace, he would end the season with 269 carries for 810 yards and 9 touchdowns with only 12 catches for 79 yards. That would be behind his rookie season mark in all categories. The question is if we can expect his production to pick up as the season goes or if this is par for the course.
The Good: Richardson is still the talent that he was coming out of Alabama that made him the third overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. He has ideal size, good speed, nice agility, and knows how to play football. The most important item in his favor might be that he is only 22 years old. That means he has a solid five to seven years of production left and is a long ways away from his prime. Playing for the Colts behind future all-pro Andrew Luck should mean that he isn’t going to be the focus of opposing defenses. It also means that his team will be able to move the ball which should ensure plenty of goal line opportunities for the big back, keeping his touchdown totals fairly high and most likely in the double digits for most seasons.
The Bad: Thus far in his career (granted it has only been 20 games), Richardson has not been a homerun hitter, failing to turn good runs into great runs. He has only two runs over 20 yards in his career (32 yards and 26 yards, both in 2012) with a season long this year of 16 yards. An even bigger concern is during his three weeks with the Colts he has been almost non-existent in the passing game. After catching 7 passes in two games with the Browns, he has only 1 catch in three games with the Colts. The few passes to running backs have gone to Ahmad Bradshaw (recently added to IR) and Donald Brown over those three games with the pair catching seven passes during Richardson’s three games. Even if Richardson did get all of those passes, it would still be just slightly more than half of his usage compared to last year. The current Colts offense just doesn’t throw to the running backs as much as the Browns did. The other not so minor issue with Richardson is his 3.0 yards per carry with the Colts and 3.5 yards per carry for his career.
The Ugly Truth: So far we have a very small sample size with Richardson. He’s only started 20 games in his career and three games with his new team. He is also only 22 years old. All three of those points make it tough to pass judgment on Richardson at this early stage in his career.
With that said, I’m concerned about his track record thus far in his career. With 349 carries to his name, it is actually a decent sample. It was because of his ability to catch passes out of the backfield and high touchdown total (11 as a rookie) that he was a top 10 running back in PPR leagues last season. With a decreased role in the passing game for the Colts and no increase in his production as a runner, in fact he has decreased, he is just barely going to be a RB2 in PPR league. Should his touchdown totals ever slump without an increase somewhere else he wouldn’t even be that.
Maybe all of this is an overreaction, so I decided to see how he compares to some of the perennial RB1s that started early in their careers (like Richardson did) as well as fellow 2012 rookie star Doug Martin. I looked at Richardson’s first 20 games compared to their first 20 games.
Comparing Richardson to these five fantasy stars and the player that he is most likely to be compared to through his career, Doug Martin, several trends stand out. Richardson is largely in the middle of this group with two major exceptions. His touchdowns are on the high end of this scale, second only to Peterson, while his productivity per touch is on the far low end of the spectrum by a fairly significant margin. Combine this with what was previously mentioned about the drop off in his usage of the passing game with the Colts and there is a definite cause for concern.
In theory, Richardson should improve as the season goes on and he gets more comfortable with the Colts offense. However, his first 20 games don’t really point to someone that is destined to be a future high end RB1 for the next five to seven years. Instead he has the look of someone that is more likely to be a RB2 as long as his touchdowns hold up. A lot of his supporters won’t like this comparison, but at this point he is reminding me a lot of Mikel LeShoure in 2012. If you took LeShoure’s 2012 season and expanded it to 20 games worth of data he would have 307 carries for 1140 yards, 49 catches for 306 yards, 3.71 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns. Leshoure’s career long carry is also 16 yards. From a statline perspective, he is probably the nearest comparison that I could find to Richardson thus far, which isn’t a mark in Richardson’s favor.
I do expect Richardson to show some improvement and be slightly more involved in the passing game as time goes on. That means that he should beat the projected numbers listed at the start of the article but probably not by a huge amount. I also don’t think he’ll get back to the pass catching numbers he saw as a rookie in the current Colts system. I haven’t seen the explosive runner that many hoped he would become when he was drafted. At this point in time his age still makes him a very solid asset, but he might be more of a RB2 for the next five years instead of a RB1. He wasn’t in my top 5 running backs at the start of the season and I might need to move him towards the bottom of the top 10 with how the season as gone so far.
If you can still get top end running back value for him in your league I would gladly take it. A straight up swap for guys like LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, or Jimmy Graham would have me sprinting for the accept button. He isn’t in their league in my opinion. Things could still change as he ages but a running back’s first 350 carries are normally pretty telling on what they can and can’t do. It is rare that someone drastically changes after that point in time.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
