Bye Week Scouting Report: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Washington

Dan Meylor

The bye weeks kick it up a notch in week five with four teams off.  The NFL gave the two teams that went to London, Minnesota and Pittsburgh as well as Tampa Bay and Washington the weekend off, so we use the opportunity to take a close look at each team from a dynasty owner’s perspective.

Minnesota Vikings

ponderThrough the first three games, Vikings starting quarterback Christian Ponder completed only 59% of his passes and threw two touchdowns and five interceptions, numbers that rank in the bottom half among NFL quarterbacks.

The alarming stats start showing up when you look at Ponder’s incompetence using play action, going 15 for 32 with no touchdown passes and two interceptions on 36 play action calls over the first three weeks of the season.  Most would expect better numbers from a quarterback with the best tailback in the league.

After a pedestrian first three weeks, the Vikings offense got a shot in the arm against the Steelers.  With Ponder sidelined, Matt Cassel was dependable behind center in week three going 16 for 25 for 248 yards and two touchdowns.  More importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and forced the Pittsburgh defense to respect the passing game, which gave Adrian Peterson consistent running lanes.  In play action, Cassel was also better than Ponder.  He went 4 of 8 for 49 yards and a touchdown in week four.

Even with the uneven play under center, Peterson has been everything his fantasy owners could hope for, ranking as the top running back in standard scoring leagues (19.83 fantasy points per game).

The wide receivers in Minnesota have been inconsistent at best.  The Vikings signed Greg Jennings over the off-season to stabilize the position and give Ponder a solid, number one receiver, but the coaching staff and quarterbacks haven’t used him like one.  Jennings ran 129 routes in four games and was only targeted 20 times (15.5% target percentage).  When you take into account that he was only on the field for 36 of the 52 snaps the Vikings offense ran in week four, you wonder if the Vikings regret investing so much in the former Packers receiver.

Outside of Jennings, Jerome Simpson and Kyle Rudolph are the only fantasy relevant pass catchers on the Vikings roster.  Both have been extremely inconsistent through four games.

Although he played well in week four, Cassel has shown glimpses of promise through the years in New England and Kansas City, only to disappoint.  Whether he or Ponder lines up behind center after the bye, fantasy owners should expect Vikings receivers to be unreliable going forward.

Jennings is nothing more than a WR5 at this point.  If I had him on my fantasy roster, I’d spend the bye week trying to capitalize on his two touchdown game against Pittsburgh, and trade him while he has value.

Rudolph’s fantasy value relies too much on finding the end zone.  Although he has talent and is certainly worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues, he is nothing more than a low end TE2 until the Vikings find a superior quarterback.

Peterson has proven over the years to be elite, with or without a quality quarterback.  Fantasy owners should expect the same going forward.

Cordarrelle Patterson has not seen the field much, but that’s sure to change as the season progresses.  He’s a promising rookie with the height, quickness and long speed to be a fantasy star in the years to come.  His value will likely rise as time passes, so dynasty owners should make a move now to get him while that value is low.  Simpson’s contract expires at the end of the season, opening the door for Patterson to do major damage in 2015.

Buy

Sell

Hold

Adrian Peterson

Cordarrelle Patterson

Christian Ponder

Matt Cassel

Greg Jennings

Jerome Simpson

Kyle Rudolph

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 0-4 for the first time since 1968, but more importantly to fantasy owners, their awful start hasn’t translated into garbage time fantasy points.

Ben Roethlisberger has turned the ball over nine times in four games and the running game has been dreadful, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and only 58 yards per game.

Many looked for rookie tailback Le’Veon Bell to improve the Steelers running game.  Bell returned to the lineup in week four and was called on 16 times, rushing for two touchdowns but he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry against the Vikings defense that had given up a five yard average in the first three weeks.

Due to the team being behind so much, Pittsburgh has been forced to pass early and often.  Antonio Brown has been targeted 39 times (11th in the NFL) and caught 32 passes (4th) for 412 yards (4th) and two touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders is 14th in the league with 37 targets but he’s only converted those targets into 20 catches for 231 yards and hasn’t found the end zone.  Tight end Heath Miller has caught nine balls on 12 targets for 105 yards since returning to lineup in week three.

As the season progresses, expect the Steelers offense to continue to have its issues.  The offensive line is banged up and has struggled in both pass protection and run blocking and there’s no relief in sight.

The offense will no doubt attempt to lean on Bell to be a workhorse.  He was on the field for 60 of the Steelers 79 offensive plays versus the Vikings and his two scores have given fantasy owners hope that he will produce consistently as a RB2 going forward.  If he can continue to contribute as a receiver like he did against Minnesota, catching four passes for 27 yards, and stay on the field, there’s no reason that he can’t be a solid fantasy play for the rest of 2013 and beyond.

As the Steelers continue to play from behind, fantasy owners should expect Brown to continue to put up solid numbers week-in-and-week-out.  He currently ranks as a top five wide out in both PPR and standard scoring leagues.  While I don’t necessarily expect that to continue, finishing with between 90 and 100 catches for around 1,200 yards and eight to ten touchdowns should be expected, which would make him a WR1 at years end.

Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown more than 15 interceptions in a season over the past six years, so expect him to fix his turnover issues.  At this point, he’s nothing more than a QB2 but you could do much worse as a fantasy owner.

Miller played only 39 of the team’s 66 offensive snaps in week three against Chicago.  In week four, he played 75 of 79 snaps and was targeted eight times, catching 6 passes for 70 yards.  He has returned to his role as one of Roethlisberger’s favorite targets and makes for an excellent trade target for fantasy owners in the need of a useful tight end.  He should finish the season as a mid to low-end TE1.

After seeing the field on only 20 of 177 snaps (11%) through three weeks, rookie wide out Markus Wheaton played 36 of 79 snaps (45%) against the Vikings.  Not only was he on the field, he was targeted five times and made three catches for 57 yards in the game.  Expect that snap count to climb as the season progresses, which will cut into the playing time for Jerricho Cotchery and perhaps even Sanders, both of which are scheduled to be free agents this off-season.  Wheaton is an excellent target for dynasty owners looking for a young wide receiver.  If you’re one of those owners, you better make your offer soon.

Buy

Sell

Hold

Le’Veon Bell

Antonio Brown

Markus Wheaton

Emmanuel Sanders

Steelers Defense

Ben Roethlisberger

Heath Miller

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The ship is sinking and the Buccaneers are going down with it.

It might sound like something from a children’s novel, but unfortunately for fantasy owners of Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, it’s exactly what seems to be happening in Tampa Bay.

If the ship is sinking, the Buccs passing game is the dead weight that’s taking down the vessel.  Josh Freeman was absolutely appalling to open the season, completing only 43 of 94 passes for a 45.7 completion percentage, which ranked him dead last behind every quarterback who had started a game to that point.  He also ranked near the bottom of the league in QB rating and yards per attempt.

It’d be unreasonable for anybody to blame head coach Greg Schiano for benching him.  The problem for fantasy owners of Martin, Jackson and Williams though, is that Schiano turned to third-round rookie Mike Glennon for reprieve.

Glennon completed 23 of 43 passes for 193 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against the Cardinals last week, but also lost a fumble in the defeat.  He started out hot, connecting with Williams on an eight-yard touchdown in the first quarter but looked like a rookie making his first start as the game progressed.  More important than anything, Glennon didn’t appear to be the type of quarterback that could help the fantasy value of any Buccaneers skill player, at least in the short term.

The most frustrated fantasy owners on the planet may be those who own Martin, who hasn’t looked like the same player that accounted for 2,398 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns a year ago, at least in the box score.  While Martin’s rushing average of 3.4 yards per carry has been disappointing, perhaps the more discouraging statistic has been his lack of participation in the passing game.  In 2012, Martin caught 49 passes for 472 yards and a touchdown.  Through four weeks in 2013, Martin has seven receptions for only 35 yards.

Many fantasy owners are worried about Martin’s involvement in the passing game.  By taking a look at the numbers, you quickly realize he’s just as involved as he was during his rookie year.

Through four games, Martin has been targeted 17 times (4.25 per game).  In 2012 he was targeted 62 times (3.875 per game).  Additionally, he only dropped seven passes in 2012 for a 7% drop rate last season.  This year, he has let four passes go through his hands already, giving him a drop rate of 29.5%.  That rate will undoubtedly go down as the season progresses.

Add that to the 25 carries he’s averaging per game to this point as well as his pure talent and you should have a top five fantasy running back once again in 2013 based on volume alone.  While his yards per carry may not reach the 4.6 that he sported last season due to the eight-man fronts he’ll face, there’s no reason to believe he can’t approach 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns as well as 40catches and 400 yards receiving as a sophomore.  A big chunk of that could come in week six against the Eagles’ 26th rated run defense.  If his fantasy owner is even remotely discouraged with him, it’s time to make an offer.

The outlook for the Buccaneers receivers is much grimmer than that of Martin’s.  While Glennon has a cannon for a right arm, his intermediate accuracy was questioned during the draft process and he has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long in the pocket.  Because of this, the fantasy values of both Jackson and Williams have taken a noticeable hit for the foreseeable future.  If I could still get equal value for either wide out, I would do it, although I doubt anybody would give up that much for them.

Glennon remains an interesting long term prospect.  He fits well in Schiano’s vertical passing offense.  If he can mature quickly (and Schiano keeps his job), he stands a chance to be a serviceable fantasy quarterback in the future.

Fantasy owners should also take note of the Tampa Bay defense going forward.  They’ve given up only 17 points per game, rank 7th in the league in sacks, 5th in interceptions and 4th in fumbles forced.  The defense makes for a solid bye-week fill-in or match-up play as the season progresses.

Freeman’s is the only contract of note that is expiring after the season and he may not make it to the off-season with the team.  If I could get a bye week fill-in kicker for him, I’d do it.  If I needed the roster space, I wouldn’t hesitate to drop him.

Buy

Sell

Hold

Doug Martin

Josh Freeman

Mike Glennon

Vincent Jackson

Mike Williams

Tampa Bay Defense

Washington Redskins

The Redskins are a tough team to figure out from a fantasy perspective.  So much of their success last year was due to the brilliant play of Robert Griffin III, but Griffin hasn’t been the same player he was a year ago.

In 2012, Griffin averaged 6.9 yards per carry and 55 yards per game on the ground and scored seven touchdowns with his feet.  This year, he’s only averaging 4.0 yards per carry, 18 yards per game and hasn’t scored.  With an injury like the one he suffered, a decline in rushing production was expected by most but the question that fantasy owners want an answer to, is when to expect that part of his game to return.

Interestingly, Griffin’s inability to run has done nothing but to hinder the other Redskins playmakers.  Alfred Morris is averaging 5.3 yards per carry which is up from the 4.8 average he had last year and with Griffin passing more, the Washington receiving core has taken steps forward as well.  Pierre Garcon is 6th in the league in targets among wide receivers (41), 5th in receptions (29) and 12th in yards (339).

Jordan Reed has also been a welcomed addition to the Redskins offense.  Although he missed week four due to a quad injury, he averaged 9.86 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues over the first three weeks and saw more than five targets per game over that span.  Compared to the two targets per game and 1.83 fantasy points per game that Fred Davis gave fantasy owners, it looks like there’s a changing of the guard at tight end in Washington.

While many have complained of a lack of production from Morris, he’s actually excelled when given opportunities to this point in the season.  Last year he received nearly 21 carries per game, but this year that number has dipped to 14.  Some of that can be attributed to the Redskins trailing in games or even the time he missed against Oakland last week.  Whatever the reason, many owners are down on him, making him an ideal trade target while he’s resting this week, especially in standard scoring leagues.

Griffin has also become a trade target early this season.  His knee will only get healthier and with that comes more rushing yards and more big plays.  If his owner is at all frustrated with the current version of RG3, I would take him at a discount now and watch him become the 2012 version of RG3 over the final 12 games of the season.

Fantasy owners of Garcon should expect a lot more of the same as the season goes on with one exception.  Much of Garcon’s production has been done in garbage time.  As the Redskins get better, that production may dip a bit.

Garcon reminds me a lot of Greg Jennings in his prime with the Packers, who also had a tendency to miss time but was very productive when he was on the field.  I expect him to catch 80 to 90 passes for around 1,200 yards and about eight touchdowns, if he stays relatively healthy.

A good dynasty buy at this point is Reed.  Although he has a checkered injury history, he’s become Mike Shanihan’s preferred tight end, which has proven to be a productive position over the years in Denver and Washington.

This off-season, Davis and Santana Moss will both be free agents.  With the Redskins having so many needs in other areas, it’s realistic not to expect a lot of resources to be spent on improving the skill positions which could force the young players currently on the roster into more prominent roles.  Leonard Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson are names to remember that could make a fantasy splash in 2015.

Buy

Sell

Hold

Robert Griffin III

Alfred Morris

Jordan Reed

Fred Davis

Roy Helu

Pierre Garcon

Leonard Hankerson

dan meylor