Herding Stats: Week Five

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford has started off the season with a bang, throwing for over 1,000 yards through four games. Through those four games he has attempted more passes than anyone other quarterback in the league with 182 attempts. For some context, the league’s leading statistical passer, Peyton Manning, has only attempted 156 pass thus far. This week he meets the Jacksonville Jaguars who have given up the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks through four games. What should help Bradford is the fact that currently he has only completed roughly 59% of his passes, however the Jaguars are giving up a quarterback completion percentage of roughly 64%. Bradford is also throwing 1.8 touchdowns per game but Jacksonville is giving up 2.2 touchdowns per game. While this doesn’t seem like a big deal, it is. Only four teams give up more passing touchdowns per game than Jacksonville which tells us that teams clearly have identified that if you get in the red zone against the Jaguars, you have to pass. Taken all together Bradford stands a great chance of moving up the quarterback rankings following the completion of week five.

Running Back Focus:  LeSean McCoy

Man, I have a great time writing this article but sometimes the players I focus on just don’t cooperate. Case in point, Darren McFadden last week. McFadden had an awesome match-up last week but he went and pulled a McFadden and got himself hurt – typical! That said, I did warn that he would hurt himself sometime this year, I just didn’t expect it to be the week I focused on him (although I should have). Anyway, last week is last week.

This week LeSean McCoy looks to be the running back with the beneficial match-up. McCoy is going up against a Giants defense that has given up the ninth most fantasy points to running backs but has given up the sixth most of all active teams this week. The Giants have been run on hard so far this season, giving up 122.5 rushing yards per game off of an average of 31.5 rushes per game thus far. This plays perfectly into the Eagles game plan which has seen them rush roughly 33 times per game. The match-up looks even more interesting when you factor in the passing plays the Giants are giving up to running backs. The Giants have given up roughly five receptions per game to running backs that have resulted in just about 40 receiving yards per game, and we all know McCoy is no stranger to a little PPR action after hanging five receptions for 114 yards on the Chargers in Week Two. McCoy looks to be too much for the Giants defense.  If they stop him on the ground he’ll get points through the air, if they shut down the pass he’ll just run on them all day!

Wide Receiver Focus:  Victor Cruz

So tailing off of the LeSean focus, how can the Giants hope to compete? Easy, they are going to pass the ball, A LOT! If there is one thing that the NFL knows about the Eagles so far, it’s that you can, and should, pass on them. The Eagles are the second worst passing defense in the league and the worst in terms of giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. On average the Eagles give up approximately 325 passing yards per game. What’s worse is that much of the damage to the Eagles’ defense has been done out of the slot, the position that Cruz lines up in much of the time. A big part of how Cruz projects as a monster match-up is the fact that Philadelphia is giving up the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL. The Eagles have been thrown on the fifth most in the NFL with 104 wide receiver targets through four games or 26 targets per game. Cruz is targeted by Manning on average 45% of the time on wide receiver pass plays, doing the math one can expect a little over 11 targets against the Eagles. Cruz catches roughly 60% of the passes thrown his way but the top receivers that have gone against the Eagles have caught 83% of the passes they’ve been thrown! Let’s say Cruz under-performs his peers in week five but outperforms his performances thus far to the tune of a 70% completion rate.  That would net him around eight receptions on the day.  Again splitting the yards per game you get approximately 107 yards. Don’t forget that the Eagles are giving up a lot of touchdowns to wide receivers also, so the odds of a touchdown or two are pretty high for Cruz. All in all it looks like Victor Cruz could have a very nice day at the office!

Tight End Focus:  Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen draws the Cardinals this week, a match-up that should have his owners breathing a sigh of relief. The Cardinals have given up the second most fantasy points to tight ends this season. A big part of this is due to the fact that opposing tight ends have been targeted 43 times through four games against Arizona, just over 10 targets per game on average, second most in the NFL. This has yielded 387 yards, the most in the NFL and roughly 97 yards per game! If Olsen remains on average it would be his biggest game of the season thus far. Olsen meanwhile, has been target just under nine times per game which is actually the third most tight end targets in the NFL. What’s more is the fact that Cam Newton heavily depends on Olsen and loves targeting him.  Of Newton’s 88 pass attempts, Olsen has been targeted in a full 30% of the time. Arizona is allowing roughly 38 pass attempts a game.   If we extrapolate out 30% of those attempts, we come to a possible 11 targets for Olsen if Newton’s targeting remains consistent. This is now a second statistic that is pointing to Olsen being targeted in the double digits, always an excellent recipe for success.

Defensive Team Focus:  Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons defense hasn’t generally instilled fear in their opponents.  Instead, they tend to secure their wins by simply outscoring opponents as opposed to limiting opponent scoring. However, Atlanta has a good chance to pump up their defensive statistics with this week’s game against the Jets. The Jets are throwing, on average, two interceptions per game, second highest in the NFL. Mix in the fact that two of Geno Smith’s leading receivers may be on the shelf and suddenly the Falcons can play a much more aggressive pass defense. This bodes poorly for the Jets as their passing completion percentage is already an extremely low 57%, 26th lowest in the NFL. With passing clearly an issue in this game for the Jets, Atlanta has an excellent opportunityto boost their 1.8 sacks per game since the Jets thus far are giving up 3.5 sacks, on average, per game … and that was when Geno Smith had his top receivers. The potential exists for the Falcons to outpace both sack totals with Holmes and Hill both potentially out. Put this game under the Monday Night lights and you’ve got the likelihood that Geno Smith is going to have a long night.