IDP Watch: Week Three

Steve Wyremski

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to be aware of.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores. These are huge indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

The goal is to largely avoid stellar IDP players since many of those guys are already heavily in the eyes of IDP owners. Instead, here are some players to keep an eye on based on week three performances:

Arthur Brown, ILB, BAL

Brown was injured in week two against the Browns and was inactive in week three due to injury. Many owners who spent an early pick on Brown are concerned and wondering when their top IDP pick will pay off. We had some comments in last week’s watch echoing that feeling. It’s been a disappointing start for Brown with the Ravens’ addition of Daryl Smith who immediately assumed the role as the defensive quarterback of a veteran-starved linebacking corps. However, while Smith is the leader of the defense, the other inside linebacker spot is still available for Brown. Currently, Josh Bynes is holding that role and splitting time with Brown when healthy. Bynes has seen the majority of snaps as compared to Brown, but I’d expect that to start shifting in the next few weeks. It already started in week two before Brown was injured. I wouldn’t yet be concerned that Brown is the next Nate Irving.

Tyrann Mathieu, FS, ARZ

Honey Badger has been nothing short of stellar thus far. He’s a phenomenal talent and appears to have his non-football issues under control. That’ll mean top IDP production. Currently, he’s a top five safety option with the ability to get to the ball carrier and amass tackles, but also make the big-play and force turnovers. He’s been one of the best steals of the 2013 rookie draft to date. He has the potential to be a perennial Pro Bowler and is one of the few safeties behind Harrison Smith, Mark Barron, and Eric Berry that I want on my squad.

JJ Wilcox, FS, DAL

With Will Allen struggling mightily, the rookie got the start in week three against the Rams. He played pretty well on 77 percent of the team’s snaps but only tallied a tackle and two assists. He hasn’t been terribly productive thus far, but he’s a player with upside given that he only played safety in his last college season. This past Sunday, he also had an interception taken away due to a roughing the passer penalty. In deeper leagues, Wilcox deserves to be stashed given his potential.

George Iloka, SS, CIN

After three weeks, Iloka has played all but one of the Bengals’ defensive snaps. The second year player has ten tackles and four assists through three weeks. Those average numbers haven’t given him much IDP attention especially since he’s also generally been sub-par in coverage. That said, as he starts playing some of the more run-heavy teams, given the scheme, Iloka should see a bump in tackles. While he’s worth rostering in moderate to deeper leagues, keep in mind that he may be a short-term solution as rookie Shawn Williams is likely to assume a starting role at some point.

Mason Foster, MLB, TB

Foster has been extremely productive on a per snap basis over the last two weeks, but I wouldn’t rely on him too heavily just yet. He’s basically following the snap pattern that he had in 2012. It’s inconsistent and ranging anywhere from roughly 50 percent to the mid-80. In other words, he can’t be relied upon consistently given that his tackle opportunities may be limited on any given week due to match ups and related snap count. He’s a solid option when he’s seeing favorable match up (i.e., run favorable matchups), but not on a weekly basis given that Lavonte David is the every down linebacker and Foster doesn’t play in all subpackages. Tampa, unlike teams like Carolina, New England, and Washington, doesn’t typically play two linebackers every down.

Willie Young, DE, DET

Young was mentioned last week as a guy to stash or watch given his play to date. Well, starter Jason Jones is now out for the season with a knee injury. Young was earning more reps due to his pass rushing ability. He’ll now see that regardless of his ability given the injury. In week three, Young again finished with nice pass-rushing numbers on four quarterback hits and two hurries.

In deeper leagues, keep an eye on rookie Devin Taylor. Coach Schwartz mentioned Taylor as a candidate to see an increase in snaps due to Jones’ injury. Schwartz also mentioned that the Lions like a lot of things in Taylor that the like in Jones. That may mean more snaps for the rookie than many expect.

Kenny Vaccaro, SS, NO

vaccaro

Through three games, Vaccaro amassed 17 tackles, an assist, and an interception. Most importantly, he’s played every down in each of the three games. Many were concerned that Roman Harper would cut into Vaccaro’s snaps as a rookie and limit his IDP value. That’s been a non-issue as Rob Ryan has relegated Harper to a blitzing role whereby he’s playing a sufficient number of snaps, but not in a role that is fantasy friendly. There’s no reason to suspect Vaccaro’s snaps will be limited going forward. He’s the every down safety in New Orleans and should be a solid safety option prospectively.

Delano Howell, SS, IND

With LaRon Landry out due to injury, the undrafted second year safety got his first start of his career last week. Playing every defensive snap, he amassed four tackles and two passes defensed. Not a huge game, but Coach Pagano continues to support Howell publically. This past week, he referenced Howell’s play in training camp and the preseason that continued in week three in Landry’s absence highlighting his hard-working mentality, toughness, and the fact that he’s always in the right spot. While Landry has a heck of a lot more talent than Howell, Pagano’s remarks are worth noting in deeper leagues. With Landry’s injury history and Howell’s willingness to succeed, Howell should get some more opportunities as the year progresses. Even if Howell doesn’t, he’s worth stashing in deeper leagues for the long-term.

Anthony Spencer, DE, DAL
Spencer is out for the year and it sounds like he’ll have microfracture surgery, though it’s unclear. If so, he expects to be 100 percent by the beginning of the off-season, but it’s likely he’ll be held back for the rest of his career because of it. Many around the age of 30 never return to form after microfracture surgery. This is, however, great news for George Selvie who has really come on since getting an opportunity in training camp. Again last week he got to the quarterback with four hurries and a sack. He’s now top five in quarterback hurries among defensive ends. If he’s not rostered in moderate to deeper leagues, he should be.

Deep Dynasty Looks:

Jamie Collins, SLB, NE

With Brandon Spikes likely to move on in free agency and Dont’a Hightower likely to move to middle/weakside linebacker as a result, Collins is the most likely candidate to slide into the starting strongside linebacker spot in 2014. He’s a worthy stash option in deep leagues.

Akeem Spence, DT, TB

On the season, Spence has played 54 percent of the team’s snaps. In that time, he put together six tackles, an assist, and a sack. He also put together three quarterback hurries and a quarterback hit. So, he’s getting to the quarterback and also playing well against the run. He’s a fantastic stash option.

Vinny Curry, DE, PHI

He’s more suited to be a 4-3 defensive end, but in the first game he was active in the 2013 season, he earned himself more snaps with a sack and three hurries. His value will be limited given that he’s in a 3-4 base scheme, but if he continues to get to the quarterback like he did last week, he could possess some long-term value at this spot. Worst case scenario (and likely more for 2014) is that he gets cut loose from the Eagles and finds his way to a 4-3 defense, which he’s better fit for.

Follow Steve on Twitter at @SteveWyremski.