Bye Week Scouting Report: Green Bay and Carolina
Most think the bye week is a time to rest and get healthy for an NFL franchise. The truth is that while players take a few extra days off, coaching staffs spend their week doing a detailed self-scout on the entire roster as well as the teams play calling.
Dynasty owners should use bye weeks in a similar way, as an opportunity to take a look at every NFL franchise during the season in an attempt to find potential break-out players and revisit the short and long term goals of the team.
The Packers and Panthers kick-off the bye weeks this weekend and we kick-off the “Bye Week Scouting Report.”
Green Bay Packers
The Packers enter their bye week with one of the best fantasy offenses in the league. Not many attacks showcase a top fantasy quarterback, three useful wide receivers and a serviceable tight end, but the Packers do just that. The team’s offense has been impressive through three weeks, as expected, ranking third in the league in yards gained (454.7 ypg) and second in scoring (32 ppg.)
Although many might think having an early bye might be a disadvantage, it may be coming at just the right time for the Packers. Green Bay has suffered injuries to the top two tailbacks on the depth chart (rookie Eddie Lacy and veteran James Starks), as well as starting tight end Jermichael Finley and many key contributors on defense. The week off may be just what they need to get healthy, and back on the field for fantasy owners.
Led by Aaron Rodgers, a majority of the offense’s success has come through the air. Once again, Rodgers is spreading the ball out to multiple receivers. Randall Cobb (21 receptions for 290 yards and two touchdowns,) and Jordy Nelson (18/289/3) rank among the top 12 wide receivers in both standard and PPR scoring leagues. Meanwhile, James Jones (15/212/1) is ranked among the top 36 wide outs. There has also been enough to go around for Finley (11/121/2) to rank in the top 12 among tight ends even after missing nearly the entire Cincinnati game with a concussion.
Surprisingly, the Green Bay running game has been impressive through three weeks, racking up 100 yard rushing performances in back-to-back weeks coming into the bye. Normally fantasy owners would be thrilled with those numbers, but a starting tailback hasn’t finished the last two games for the Packers, so few fantasy owners have benefited.
Many expected Eddie Lacy to take the reins in the Packers’ backfield. After proving serviceable on opening weekend against San Francisco, it looked as if he would be in line for a big afternoon against the lowly Redskins until his first carry of the afternoon when Brandon Meriweather launched himself into a helmet-to-helmet collision that ended Lacy’s day and shelved the former Crimson Tide runner for the remainder of the game as well as week three.
Enter James Starks, who filled in admirably versus Washington, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown, but was hurt in the second quarter against the Bengals, forcing rookie fourth rounder Johnathan Franklin to finish the game in Cincinnati. Franklin was very impressive against the Bengals. He was elusive, running for 103 yards on 13 carries (7.9 ypc) and a score, although he did lose a critical fumble late in the game.
All of this adds up to a productive running game. The problem is predicting future carries in Green Bay is going to be challenging and many fantasy owners are worried there will be a timeshare going forward.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Packers rank 27th in the league in pass defense, giving up 311 yards per game through the air.
What does that mean for fantasy owners?
Well for one thing, play your quarterbacks and receivers against the Packers. Outside of that, it means the Packers will continue to be in shootouts and any lead they do build won’t be safe, forcing Rodgers to keep heaving it.
As long as he stays healthy, fantasy owners should expect numbers similar to the ones Rodgers has put up the past few years. In fact, he may attempt more passes and therefore put up even bigger fantasy numbers in the process.
Rodgers has too many weapons and it simply isn’t possible for defenses to take them all away. The problem, however, is that with so many weapons, there will be weeks where one of those receivers disappear from the box score, like in week one when Jones didn’t record a catch.
If there is a long-term trade target for dynasty owners on the Packers’ roster, it’s Franklin. Although he struggled in the preseason, he matched fellow rookie Giovani Bernard punch for punch as an injury replacement in week three against the Bengals. He had multiple electrifying runs, displayed soft hands as a pass catcher and was more than competent in pass protection. Going forward, it will be difficult for head coach Mike McCarthy to keep him off the field. He proved he should immediately pass Starks on depth chart and is worthy of between five and seven touches per game at a minimum. His performance could also be proof that he has the chops to potentially be a featured back in the Green Bay offense.
Dynasty owners should also remember the Packers have a couple of tough decisions to make this offseason. Jones and Finley are both free agents after the season. Cobb and Nelson along with highly regarded defensive tackle B.J. Raji are also due to hit free agency in 2015. It’s doubtful the Packers will be able to bring all of Rodgers’ pass catchers back. Depending on where they end up, not all of them will be as attractive to fantasy owners in future seasons.
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Buy |
Sell |
Hold |
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QB Aaron Rodgers RB Eddie Lacy RB Jonathan Franklin WR Randall Cobb WR Jordy Nelson |
RB James Starks Packers Defense |
WR James Jones TE Jermichael Finley |
Carolina Panthers
Unlike the Packers, the Panthers enter the bye week on a high note after shutting out the Giants at home on Sunday, 38-0.
The offense was impressive in week three after being mostly lethargic through two weeks. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula finally started using the read option against the Giants, which opened up the offense and gave quarterback Cam Newton the freedom to make plays with his legs.
Newton finished the game going 15-for-27 for 223 yards and three touchdowns through the air, but perhaps more importantly, he chipped in 45 yards on seven carries and a score on the ground. The 8.3 yards per attempt from Newton against the Giants was much more reminiscent of the quarterback that finished among the top six fantasy signal callers each of the past two seasons.
On top of Newton’s contributions to the ground game, DeAngelo Williams has been a steady contributor through three games. He’s run for at least 85 yards in each contest, but has yet to find pay dirt, mostly because with Newton and fellow back Mike Tolbert on the roster, he’s not getting any goal line carries. He’s also not a contributor as a receiver, only catching four passes for 11 yards, so he doesn’t have much value in PPR leagues.
Even though the passing game picked up in week three, there is still much to be desired in Carolina’s air attack. The pass protection has been inconsistent and the receivers have been unreliable.
Veteran Steve Smith has looked his age at times. Although he’s been targeted 23 times, he’s only been able to haul in 14 passes for 143 yards. His average of 10.2 yards per reception is well below his career mark and could suggest that he may no longer be able to get separation downfield. Some may argue that an improvement in pass protection would give him more time to get open. In years past, his top end speed was enough to create space.
Outside of Smith, the only fantasy relevant target for Newton is tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen has 16 receptions on 22 targets for 194 yards and a touchdown and although he has dropped three passes, ranks as the number ten tight end in standard scoring leagues.
With all this said, the passing game will have the opportunity to continue to improve over the next few weeks. Four of the Panthers next five opponents rank in the bottom ten in the league in pass defense.
As long as the Panthers’ coaching staff continues to use Newton correctly as the season progresses, he should put up big fantasy numbers, especially in four-point-per-touchdown-pass leagues. Expect him to spread the ball around to his wide receivers making all of them nearly useless in most scoring systems.
Although Smith will undoubtedly have a couple of big games, it will be nearly impossible to predict when to play him, making him no more than a flex play or bye week replacement at best. Some are calling him a buy low candidate but I’m not buying it. His best days are behind him.
Olsen should continue to get targets and be useful in large or two tight end leagues and should be a threat in the red zone going forward.
As long as Jonathan Stewart is on injured reserve, Williams is serviceable in standard leagues. He should get the lion’s share of the carries, but nobody should expect him to find the end zone with any regularity, relegating him to a low end RB2 or flex play when the matchup is right. In all leagues, I would be spending the bye week trying to trade him while he has value.
Those in non-IDP leagues should take notice of the Panthers defense. Unowned in most dynasty leagues, they rank as a top ten defense in most scoring systems. The front seven is nasty – they consistently put pressure on the quarterback, causing turnover opportunities for the secondary and they give up only 93 yards per game on the ground, despite facing the likes of Marshawn Lynch and the duo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in weeks one and two. As far as fantasy defenses go, the Panthers look legit and should be owned in more leagues.
This off=season, expect changes in Carolina. Rumors swirled a week ago that head coach Ron Rivera might be fired if they didn’t beat the Giants. While Rivera dodged that bullet (for now), it’s hard to imagine him keeping his job if the Panthers endure another losing season.
Ted Ginn Jr. and Brandon LaFell are scheduled to be free agents this off-season and may not be back with the team. Whether they are or not, the Panthers front office will be looking to make changes on the field to help Newton, specifically at the receiver position. Imagine the possibilities if he could get a true number one receiving threat.
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Buy |
Sell |
Hold |
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QB Cam Newton |
RB DeAngelo Williams WR Steve Smith |
TE Greg Olsen Panthers Defense |
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