Second and Third Year Player Development: Week Two

In this weekly column, I typically explore some young players who haven’t made much of a consistent impact to date. Some players may be available on your waiver wire, some may be available via a cheap or moderate trade. Acquiring or not acquiring one of these players could decide how well your dynasty or keeper team does for the next few years. This week I will be taking a look at second year Jets wide receiver Stephen Hill and third year Raider quarterback Terrelle Pryor.  I will focus on their most recent matchup to draw the majority of my insight.

Stephen Hill, WR NYJ

In April 2012, many dynasty fantasy owners became exited.  Georgia Tech was going to provide the NFL with another stud wide receiver to go along with alumni Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.  Things didn’t exactly turn out that way.  When we glance back to the 2012 season, there is a glimmer of hope.  First things first, Hill needs to improve his health as he missed five games and was not very productive when was given the chance to play.  He caught less than 50% of the passes tossed his way, but did catch three touchdowns on 21 receptions.

Hill had a decent day against Tampa in Week One (six receptions out of nine targets), but he was not a game changer, so I will focus on his Thursday Night showdown with the Patriots.  Hill appears to be on Geno Smith’s, mind as he was his first pass target.  The receiver was easily getting separation running patterns in the middle of the field.  He did have a miscue early as Hill was taken to the ground making a catch, after which the defender kicked the ball out of his hands.  The fumble was recovered by New England and taken back to the nine yard line.

His years in the run-based Georgia Tech offense honed his run-blocking skills, extremely beneficial given the Jets ground game  oriented offense.  Hill plays more snaps than the other Jet receiver because of this skill.  The offensive coaching staff lines him up in the backfield, in the slot, and on the outside which is unusual for a receiver his size (6′ 4″ and 215 lbs.).

Against Tampa, Smith missed seeing the receiver on an inside pass pattern which Hill ran right through the heart of the defense untouched into the end zone.  His lack of physicality is concerning as he was tackled just short of the first down marker.  With his size and strength difference, Hill should have easily picked up a first down instead of putting the Jets in position to punt.

Hill tends to body catch the ball too much, but always seems to get a step on his defender on every route he runs.  Smith was not afraid to target Hill deep in double coverage, where the receiver was more successful when the ball was thrown closer to the sideline.  Hill has good vision and can contort his body to adjust to poorly thrown passes.  There are some concentration issues as Hill let the ball bounce off his shoulder pads on more than one occasion.  I fully believe that Hill and Smith can grow together to form a decent passing attack.

A dynasty owner should be happy with 60+ receptions, 650+ receiving yards, and 6+ touchdowns from Hill in 2013 which is good for a WR4 with upside.

Terrelle Pryor, QB OAK

Mr. Pryor has been a freak of nature since high school.  There were many scouts who thought he would be a better defensive end than Julius Peppers, but he wanted the glory that accompanied the quarterback position.  In high school, Pryor threw for over 4,000 yards and ran for over 4,000 yards, which is quite impressive.  When this athletic young man left high school, he was recruited by Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, and West Virginia.  Pryor became a nightmare for opposing defenses playing against Ohio State as he would attack them with both his arm and feet.  The Buckeye traditional offense was not suited to him and his lack of adaptability limited his potential.

One of Al Davis’ last acts was to select Pryor in the third round of the 2011 supplemental draft after the quarterback had withdrawn from Ohio State under scrutiny about receiving favors as a student.  He appeared briefly in a 2011 game as a wide receiver and started the 2012 season finale at quarterback.

The 2013 Raiders began looking for answers to the quarterback position after they decided to part ways with veteran Carson Palmer.  They first made a trade for backup Matt Flynn from Seattle, then drafted Tyler Wilson (112th overall).  It was quite clear early in the pre-season that neither Flynn nor Wilson were the answer.  Pryor came with a lot of raw tools: a huge arm, quick feet, and a size advantage at the quarterback position.

I watched his first game against the Colts, but drew the majority of my scouting opinions from his game against the Jaguars.  Pryor is a very excitable.  It seems that the highs and lows of the game get in his head and live there.  The young quarterback is improving at standing tough in the pocket and not over-reacting to the defense.  He is improving his skills at hiding the ball after faking a handoff, which provides additional opportunity to decide whether to throw the ball or tuck it and run.

He is dangerous when scrambling, but Pryor isn’t always patient enough to follow his blockers, leading to unnecessary hits.  As with any scrambling quarterback though, this does create more of a crease for his running backs as the defense does not know who to focus on.

Pryor can sprint quickly to the outside to put pressure on a defense, which if done correctly, will bring the defense up to tackle him.  This can cause an over-reaction which frees his receivers underneath.  Pryor rarely sets and plants his feet when he throws, reducing his accuracy.  The young quarterback tends to jump as he is tossing the ball, relying on his arm strength alone.  He threw behind receivers quite a bit against Jacksonville or missed them high.  These tendencies put the receivers’ health at risk.  Time will tell if he can grow into the position, but if he does, you will get a play maker with flair.

If you already own Pryor or can acquire him cheaply, hang on for the wild ride.  There will be some high scoring weeks and there will be some huge duds.  I would not want to have him higher than a QB3 unless it was a two quarterback league.  For this season, Pryor could average about 200 passing yards a game, run for 700 yards, and account for close to 20 touchdowns.  Hopefully he can use this year to secure his NFL future, otherwise the Raiders may have eyes for Teddy Bridgewater.

For follow-up questions or information, contact me on twitter @AndrewMiley