Rookie Report: Week Two

In my weekly column, we take a long look at two more rookies.  I compare their performance to date against my original expectations of them.  Let’s continue the 2013 series by looking back at New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith and the New England wide receiver Aaron Dobson (I had wanted to write about the preseason Patriot rookie sensation Kenbrell Thompkins, but cornerback Antonio Cromartie took him out of most of the game).

Geno Smith, QB NYJ

Here is what I saw in college from Smith:  Smith throws the ball accurately and does a decent job placing the ball where only the receiver can make the catch.  His arm strength became reduced by weather conditions as his throws had almost zero power behind them in his bowl game against Syracuse.  The quarterback has quick feet, but moves around almost too much in the pocket.  Smith needs to do a better job setting his feet before he throws.  He does well when his first or second reads are available, but Smith struggles when he forced to go elsewhere.

Of all the 2013 draft eligible quarterbacks, Smith is the one who is most dependent on his wide receivers to make plays. The majority of his passes were short to intermediate throws, so he did not get a chance to show off his arm strength. Smith was also hindered by the way the coaching staff used Tavon Austin as more of a running back instead of as a receiver in the bowl game I saw.  The quarterback has not developed a good sense of pocket pressure and appears to get rattled.  This is very concerning for a starting quarterback who would be a potential leader of men.  When Smith got disappointed in himself during a game, it was very difficult for him to bounce back.

This is what I saw from Smith against the Patriots: He does have a strong arm, but rarely uses the correct footwork to get the most out of his throws. Smith was the most successful when he targeted his receivers around the sidelines.  What I mean by that is Coach Belichick could scheme more defenders around the ball in the middle of the field, which forced Smith into bad decisions – these ended up being the downfall of the Jets passing game (interceptions) causing it to crumble in the fourth quarter.

In the first quarter, Smith ran a read option play unsuccessfully.  Had the play not lost yardage, it appeared the Jets would have expanded the young quarterback’s role in the running game.  Despite the continued aggressive pressure of the Patriots defense, Smith stood tall in the pocket and did not shy away from taking punishment. He moved well on the run and hung in the pocket for the most part looking to pass before running.  That is not always the case with rookie quarterbacks.  Perhaps in time, he will get better sensing pressure.

Smith showed a few times of limited vision as he missed a wide open Stephen Hill in the red zone.  The rookie focused on the immediate pressure and only saw one side of the field.  He did show some nice touch on passes especially with Hill and Santonio Holmes.  I saw no issue with his arm strength and Smith was plagued with several drops due to the weather.  On all three of his picks, Smith tried to force the ball between defenders, didn’t get his feet set, and threw short.

The 2013 season could be a long one for Smith.  Unless the offense gets more creative, I doubt if the rookie is worth starting in any league outside of a two quarterback one.  Smith lacks weapons to be more than a bye week filler for now, but may grow into a strong QB2 or a fringe QB1 with a new offensive minded coach.

Aaron Dobson, WR NE

This is what I saw in college from Dobson:  Dobson has some amazing highlight reels out there filled with one-handed catches that blow your mind – those kind of catches will get you to remember him, but he is more complete player than that.  The former Marshall receiver high points the ball and is able to fight off physical coverage.  Facing defensive backs from MAC schools is much different from the coverage he will see in the NFL, so I’m a bit concerned if he transitions smoothly.

He is a bigger receiver at 6′ 3″, 205 lbs, and is quick for his size.  Dobson can, at times, struggle with concentration.  When he is on, he uses his soft, strong hands to come down with the majority of the passes thrown his way.  Dobson needs to work some on his route running; however, he sells a good double move and will sky for the ball. I’m not sure if he will ever be more than an NFL WR2.

This is what I saw from Dobson against the Jets: Talk about splash plays, Dobson got behind the defense for a 39 yard touchdown early.  The scoring play was more about design than talent as the entire defense bought that the play was a run as no defensive back went out to cover the rookie wide receiver.  Fantasy owners would have been happy if he would have exited the game right then and there, but then it got ugly.  Dobson bobbled several catchable passes and the anger coming from Brady was quite evident with the rookie’s lack of concentration.

Dobson got behind the defense using speed and quickness several occasions.  One pass was lost in the lights, he lost his balance on another, and others bounced off his fingertips.  Then out of nowhere, Dobson reached behind and made a spectacular catch, talk about being inconsistent.  The rookie appears to be looking late for the ball, so he does not have the time to make the adjustments to catch the ball. Dobson’s lack of concentration is concerning.  He would fare better as a WR4 in this offense instead of as a WR2.

Hopefully Dobson can work on his chemistry with Brady and improve his concentration to be a more consistent receiver.  I would not count on him as more than a dynasty WR5/6 right now as he is way too raw to count on more than a bye week replacement.  If he gets the chance, Dobson could be as maddening as Brandon Lloyd was last season with a spectacular catch one minute and frustration the next.

For follow-up questions or information, contact me on twitter @AndrewMiley.