Dynasty Mythbusters: Week Two
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. Some prime examples of this from week one were people talking about the prospects of players like David Wilson and Julius Thomas.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
I’ll be focusing largely on players that are likely on the waiver wire in most leagues or that are the end of bench players that you can target for cheap. It wouldn’t do me any good to tell you to go out and pick up Chris Givens since he should have been on someone’s roster months ago even though lots of websites will be championing him as a week two waiver wire addition.
James Starks, RB GB
Week Two Statline: 20 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown with 4 catches for 36 yards.
Eddie Lacy looked really good for the first nine yards of his first carry before he took a helmet to the jaw and was knocked out cold. Like all concussions, it could be a few days or a few months until Lacy gets back. You just never know. The Packers didn’t seem to miss him though as Starks stepped right in and gave the Packers their first 100 yard rushing performance since the 2010 playoffs (which was also Starks). The big question on everyone’s mind is if it is going to continue.
The Good: Starks is a familiar figure and knows the offense since this is his third year on the team. He does a nice job coming out of the backfield and catching passes. His big frame and willingness to get in the way make him above average when it comes to pass protection as well. He runs with an aggressive style and nice power, willing to fight for extra yards and keep the pile moving forward. He seldom misses a hole and has enough speed to get to most of them before they close. He also has the build to be a bell cow running back, which the Packers clearly view him as since he was the only back other than Lacy to take a carry on Sunday. Aside from all of that, the biggest plus for him right now is that he is healthy (for now). DuJaun Harris is out for the year and Lacy is concussed, leaving just disappointing rookie Johnathan Franklin and fullback John Kuhn on the active roster.
The Bad: Many of you are probably thinking you’ve already seen this show before. Someone gets hurt, Starks comes in and looks impressive for a game and he gets our hopes up, then he falls flat on his face or gets hurt and never lives up to the hype – that’s exactly what happened late in 2010 and heading into the 2011 season. In 2011, he had a chance to put a stranglehold on the starting tailback job but never played well enough to top 13 carries in a game, failing to beat out an aging Ryan Grant for touches late in the season. 2012 was even worse with injuries and his inability to beat out Cedric Benson and Alex Green. The question this year is what will happen when Lacy comes back of course. Starks also has a very long injury history and is already 27 years old if the competition and past failures aren’t enough.
The Ugly Truth: Starks has the talent to be a RB2 for as long as he can retain the starting role. The big question about how long that will be comes down to health, both his and Lacy’s. As I am writing this, Lacy’s status is yet to be updated. From what the hit looked like and what he looked like as he was helped off the field, I’m going to assume he’ll miss a few games. That means Starks is going to be an asset for the next few weeks and perhaps longer if he plays like he did on Sunday, but I don’t expect stats like Sunday every week. Keep in mind that it was a soft Washington defense that he blew up on Sunday. If you’re a competing team with a hole to fill at running back for a few weeks (until Lacy gets back) as someone else works out of the doghouse (David Wilson) or works back from injury (Maurice Jones-Drew or Ray Rice), you could do worse than Starks over the next few weeks. If you’re rebuilding don’t worry about Starks unless you have a claims order that resets every week and you can flip him for a long term prospect. I don’t see him being the primary ball carrier for more than a few weeks unless Lacy gets hurt again. Between his age, injury history, and Lacy eventually returning, Starks is only a short term asset and a handcuff after that.
Eddie Royal, WR SD
Week Two Statline: 7 receptions for 90 yards and three touchdowns
Two weeks ago when the season began, the Chargers weren’t viewed as the fantasy powerhouse that they once were years ago. They had an injury depleted receivers, a fading Philip Rivers, an aging tight end and a hit or miss Ryan Mathews. Fast forward to today and they boast the receiver with the most touchdowns in the league by a full two scores over the next closest receiver or running back. In fact, there are only four quarterbacks in the league with more passing touchdowns than Royal has receiving touchdowns and one of them is his quarterback. In fact, only nine teams have more touchdowns thus far than Royal! What are the chances he can keep this up?
The Good: One of the best things that you can say about Royal is that there really aren’t many other options for the Chargers right now. Keenan Allen just isn’t ready for a big role on Sundays, Malcom Floyd could be out for a long time and Vincent Brown hasn’t been overly impressive thus far. That leaves Royal, Antonio Gates and the running backs to split the passing game. The opportunity is definitely there for him. Royal also has more talent than many remember. He is the same player that had a 91/980/5 statline as a rookie. Of course that was five years ago and he hasn’t done much since, but he is a talented player.
The Bad: Royal’s pace just isn’t sustainable. He currently has only 14 targets (54th in the league) for ten receptions (43rd in the league) but is first in touchdowns – that means he’s just been very, very lucky and in the right place at the right time during this very young season. Historically speaking, the norm for NFL receivers is to score about once every 10-15 receptions not every other reception as has been Royal’s case thus far. There should be a fairly significant regression towards the mean in Royal’s case, unless of course you think he is really going to have an 80 reception season with 40 touchdowns.
The Ugly Truth: Even though Royal is top ten overall in scoring thus far in a lot of leagues, it isn’t going to last. His touchdowns will drop off to a more normal rate and he just isn’t getting a high enough volume of receptions and targets to be a consistent fantasy starter. There is the threat of him being surpassed by Vincent Brown by the end of the season and by Keenan Allen by the start of 2014. If you have Royal on your roster, now is the time to trade him because his value won’t ever get higher. Talk up him leading the league in touchdowns, being a top ten scorer thus far and the opportunity he has with all of the injuries. If Royal is on someone else’s roster, now isn’t the time to look at him. He’s likely only a high end WR4 from here on and isn’t worth the price he is going to command. Remember, you don’t get points for what someone did last week. If he’s on waivers though, pick him up and then I suggest you immediately try to trade him while the value is still high! Get WR2 value and giggle as you push the accept button.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
